TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Priigoat]

The option and bond markets are usually very good indicators for the further development of the stock.

Bonds are currently trading at an all time low and the option prices for put and call options are equal at 150$ and 300$. Therefore, the market is assuming the same probability for the stock reaching 150$ or 300$ until January 2019.

That is not good.

MOD: Your assumption different markets are connected is probably fallacious. Long the stock, I never invest in bonds. One measure of connection—perhaps. The big picture—much less likely. Try thinking like Buffet and focus on the real economic situation of the company in a favorably changing environment. Just might serve you well as an investor. Also, have you considered the bonds are a good buy too?

 

[beachbum77]

The option and bond markets are usually very good indicators for the further development of the stock.

Bonds are currently trading at an all time low and the option prices for put and call options are equal at 150$ and 300$. Therefore, the market is assuming the same probability for the stock reaching 150$ or 300$ until January 2019.

That is not good.

That is because fundamentals alone are not enough to predict where this stock could go. A week ago no one thought TSLA would be where it closed on Friday. But then no one knows what Musk may do or tweet today, tomorrow, or next week. He has become the wildcard in the SP direction.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I have a feeling that the pot smoke has cleared and that we bounced off the bottom on Friday. I’m thinking I will buy 275 shares at pre-market opening in preparation for a big upturn.

 

[Zaxxon]

bring GF3 up to a 250k vehicles/day production rate.

Hot damn, that's a lot of cars!

Anecdote: I took my 3 to a NDEW event yesterday. Gave rides to a bunch of folks. Of course, reactions were universally positive. But what surprised me were the number of folks who had no idea that Tesla was now making a $50k car and would soon be making a $35k car. This is among attendees of an electric vehicle event.

As we've often postulated here, the general public has no idea about the Model 3. Anyone care bearing about whether demand will be sustainable at 10k/week worldwide is kidding themselves.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thus, Elon doing Joe Rogan converts into sales far more likely then doing CNBC interviews... time is greater spent doing internet show interviews then legacy media.

I know lots of people watch youtube & listen to podcasts. Nobody I know watched CNBC...

 

[Tslynk67]

Actually longs should be happy about this event for several reasons.

1) While the first day was a little bumpy and they have run out of AWD and P models for today's portion, it brings the inventory issue out into the open. Yes, there are inventory units that buyers can snap up.
2) More importantly, it shows Tesla is taking additional steps to get cars delivered ASAP in Q3. The word seems to be this warehouse event will be repeated next weekend (hopefully with a little more notice to buyers). It stands to reason they are probably looking to duplicate the event in Southern California too. It sounds exactly like what they did in Toronto.

Bears and shorts will get no traction from this at all. That should put a smile on all your faces

Here is the TMC thread for those interested: Model 3 Delivery Experience in Fremont

I think it's amazing - I've never heard of anything like this before. Once again Tesla bucking convention!

 

[RobStark]

It is obvious, that I don’t know how average U.S. pickup buyers think, but I have a feeling, that they would be in the conservative end of the spectrum. So are they going to buy an electric car?

Conservatives tend to buy very large vehicles if they need them or not as long as they can afford them.

There many Hillary Clinton voters that buy brand new full size pickups. Much less often to commute solo. They do it for work, because they are tradesmen or they own a ranch/farm. Or they can afford a small car to commute and a full size pickup when they need it. Putting a tow hitch on a compact car and renting a small trailer doesn't cross the mind of 99% of Americans. What if you need to haul 5k lbs? Like that one time ten years ago?

So yes there is a minority of full size pickup owners that would be favorably disposed to Tesla and a Tesla pickup. It might start that Tesla conquers Toyota and Nissan full size pickup owners first.

Then with demonstrated practical superiority and lower running cost you start conquering Detroit loyalist.

 

[beachbum77]

I think it's amazing - I've never heard of anything like this before. Once again Tesla bucking convention!

Lol...bucking convention? Putting a couple hundred cars on a lot and inviting people to come and pick one to buy and take home? Dealers have been doing this for nearly 100 years.

 

[RobStark]

Honestly, they could probably just do what they do for the Model S/X. Same size battery, slightly lower range. ~275 miles(matching the range loss % going from S100D to X100D) on a charge is more than adequate. Taking the S/X as analogous again, you’re looking at a likely small price increase for the Y over the 3. Maybe $52k for LR RWD.

Standard Range taking a range hit to put Model Y SR under 200 miles of range would not be acceptable to Elon,it would hurt the Tesla brand, and Model Y needs a tow hitch to not be ridiculous.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I think it's amazing - I've never heard of anything like this before. Once again Tesla bucking convention!

I wouldn't say it's that original. It's basically just a non 3rd party dealership where customers can wander up and buy floor stock. I mean, if there was only 2 places in the country where you could walk in and buy an F150 you'd have a line a mile long.

That said, it is great for Tesla, they must save all sorts of money on delivery, holding areas, additional staff and delivery centres. It also turns the day into a chance for all us diehards to nerd out over the product.

 

[neroden]

Well I mean this doesn't make sense, if someone is going to be the de-facto COO, then name him the COO. I don't get the beating around the bush here. Unless there's a formally named COO, there is no COO

Jerome is effectively COO for Automotive operations. I'm expecting a different COO for Energy operations (maybe it will be JB). That would spread the workload out. The Gigafactory intersects the two, so I guess it makes sense that it has a third person running it.

 

[neroden]

We had a President that smoked pot "but didn't inhale".... I think everything will be fine.

We also had one who smoked pot and did inhale. More recently.

 

[RobStark]

Not looking for any argument, but I was always under the impression that kids born from parties further apart genetically tend to pick the best of both. It's anti-inbreeding, if you will.

That's why I'm so good looking - English mother, Scottish father...

My father is from Northern California and my mother from Southern California.

That is why I am full of

 

[neroden]

The Military. There are literally 1,000s of Senior Officers that work that pace routinely, for far less pay and for almost no recognition. Military Officers usually retire around 55, but can get their pension as young as 42 (after 20 years service).

Elon has talked before about using 'Special Forces' methods at Tesla. I think instead he should look at recruiting some 'Regular Army' leadership for these challenges.

But you've stated your views on the value of Military service here before, so I doubt you've considered the value their leadership brings.

Actually, you may be surprised, but I see your point.

I'd recruit from a military with a history of competence, though. We don't have anyone left in the US military who was involved in winning WWII, and the US military has become a back-and-forth between military contractor jobs and senior officer jobs (this is well documented; the rot started a long time ago, but became incurable in the 1970s).

If you can name a military which has actually been EFFECTIVE in the last couple of decades, I'd recruit from their senior officers immediately. But the last two decades seem to have been military blunders worldwide (not just in the US). A record of keeping your head down and obeying orders, right or wrong, is the *last* thing we need at Tesla. Due to the rot at the top, to really have a record of true leadership in the *US* military these days, you need to have filed formal protests and quite possibly resigned your commission in protest. There are some of those, who might be good hires.

My criticism has been quite specific to the present-day "military-industrial complex" military. Theoretically a well-run military would be a great place to recruit people from. Find me one.

Canada, maybe? They have an astounding record as the best peacekeepers in the world.


China, whose military is by all accounts massively competent on procurement and who has been highly effective? (But they won't let their upper military leave, of course.)

 

[RobStark]

So 420 + 100?

We should just use base 420 after the stock passes that number for all price points after.

I can already see the meme.

Elon screen shot from Joe Rogan Experience and the number 420 overlaid.

 

[winfield100]

View attachment 333363

I got 3 shares at close to the low.
A lot of weak hands sold to stronger hands.

 

[neroden]

“ we are about to have the most amazing quarter in our history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as we did last quarter “

Q2 production 53,339, twice as many in Q 3 would be 106,678
Assuming 27000 S&X
79,678 M3

Seriously, guys, I have to throw cold water.

A dozen times in the last month I've found myself saying "Tesla is producing XXXX cars per week", before stopping and correcting myself to say "XXXX Model 3 per week". It's an easy slip-up to make, since Model S and X production is not changing much and nobody is looking at it and it's much smaller than Model 3 production. A few years back, several of us did the same thing when talking about "Tesla's cumulative production of cars", repeatedly forgetting the Roadster production.

Musk is short on sleep and under high stress, and we know his messages don't get vetted by anyone as careful as me. I think we should assume that he meant more than double MODEL 3 deliveries and production, even though he said "cars". It is a *very* easy slip-up to make. Because if you assume that, *all the numbers match up*.

 

[neroden]

I'm not familiar with the terminology president vs COO? Layman as I would think "president" is higher than "COO"

It's like British or Australian government ministers. They can just make up whatever titles they like; they have no legal meaning. They can make the org chart look however they like and they can have duties structured however they like.

You might be surprised to know that "Chief Financial Officer" has no legal meaning, and neither does "Chief Executive Officer".

"Board of Directors", "Chairman of the Board", "Treasurer of the Corporation" and "Secretary of the Corporation" have legal meaning; as far as I know very few other position titles have any legal meaning.

 

[neroden]

Not relevant what the majority of people can handle. Tesla isn’t hiring nor employing the vast majority of people. And ten years at one company is a long time nowadays to work for any company. Long gone are the days where people want to start and finish their careers at one company.

You’re making too much out if it.

It’s not a secret you have to be special to work at Tesla. There’s no excuse for a CAO not to know BEFORE being hired that Tesla isn’t a walk in the park and long hours are required. I think his public statement was bs otherwise I have to conclude he’s too stupid to work there. And he had no clue the scrutiny Tesla is under? Give me a break.

There's long hours, and then there's "you will never see your family again and we expect you to sleep at the factory -- plus you will face a smear campaign in the press". I can see how he understimated it

 

[neroden]

His email, not letter, wasn’t meant for ‘us’ but for employees who would inherently know what he was talking about without having to spell it out in the most exacting form to be dissected syllable by syllable.

I agree, and it was fine for employees but I think that when it was published on the investor relations website, it should have been filtered through someone who checked it, or added a footnote.