TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[CaliBear1]

Care bear in da house!

Not in my house! He has joined a whole host of shorts in the very stinky, ****-filled outhouse.

 

[Do It]

At the end of the day, its solvency risk - debt due at the end of the year and march 2019. The later could be paid with stock as i recall if the price is 350 or above. Quick ratio of .37, they need to garner CFO quickly. An equity raise could have helped bridge the gap, but with a DOJ investigation, this becomes more difficult.

I would become long if the business case made sense. I do not think musk is the right CEO for this company. Ironically enough if he left, the price would take a hit. I might buy after structuring if they become a buyout target, which is always possible if the price is right. I might also go long if the charts look good, even if its for a quick trade. But for now, I am hanging tight.

This is completely FUD! There is not a single data point given in this post that supports your point - only jargons like "Quick ration of 0.37..." to make it sounds crediable. luvb2b has a comprehansive model (q2-q4 2018 financial projections) that shows 3.47B cash at the end of year after 400M debt payment. The cash balanace will probably increase another 0.5B or so after Q1 2019 - this is more than enough to pay off the 800M-900M due in Q1 2019. If you don't agree with the model feel free to make your argument there with numbers.

 

[phil0909]

Incorrectly. There was no requirement nor expectation that Elon lay out every possible risk factor in contract legalese.

Of course there was no such requirement.

However, since Elon DID very specifically state that there WERE no other contingencies, there WAS a requirement that his statement be truthful. Or if mistaken, promptly withdrawn and corrected.

Look, if you refuse to look directly at the problem, and remain determined to squint hard enough to see some loophole for Elon here, then fine, I'm never going to convince you. But for myself, I still think Elon's at risk, and there may well be consequences. I guess we'll all have to wait to find out how DOJ sees things. And if necessary, the courts.

 

[Zaxxon]

Me too. This thread is getting littered with a lot of garbage.

'getting,' he says...

 

[AWDtsla]

At the end of the day, its solvency risk

Insolvency risk is effectively 0. Elon Musk could raise 2 billion dollars with text message to one of his friends.

 

[Krugerrand]

But for now, I am hanging tight.

Someone pass the rope.

 

[bdy0627]

Of course there was no such requirement.

However, since Elon DID very specifically state that there WERE no other contingencies, there WAS a requirement that his statement be truthful. Or if mistaken, promptly withdrawn and corrected.

Look, if you refuse to look directly at the problem, and remain determined to squint hard enough to see some loophole for Elon here, then fine, I'm never going to convince you. But for myself, I still think Elon's at risk, and there may well be consequences. I guess we'll all have to wait to find out how DOJ sees things. And if necessary, the courts.

I think his wording was misleading. SEC may fine him. I don't see where it gets to a criminal level. The criminal probe does not seem unreasonable, but I can't think of a realistic scenario where Elon committed a criminal act with his tweets. Does anyone have a reasonable scenario where Elon may be criminally liable for his tweets?

 

[Bet TSLA]

$TSLA January 2021 options became available as of yesterday
I had been waiting for January 2021 calls and as soon as I noticed today I immediately switched ALL my January 2019 calls to January 2021 $400 calls
There is no way this stock will stay below $400 over the next 28 months
Shorts can try their best I’m betting everything on $400 January 2021 calls
Period

And what if it gets taken private or bought out at $390? Could happen tomorrow.

 

[Xpert]

$TSLA January 2021 options became available as of yesterday
I had been waiting for January 2021 calls and as soon as I noticed today I immediately switched ALL my January 2019 calls to January 2021 $400 calls
There is no way this stock will stay below $400 over the next 28 months
Shorts can try their best I’m betting everything on $400 January 2021 calls
Period

Why chickened out so far into 2021? Next 2-3 quarters are going to be at the heart of the ramp up, profitable, increasing margin. I’m holding Jan 2020 $325 but at this price I’m thinking to convert some calls the opposite way which is June 2019.

 

[SpaceCash]

And what if it gets taken private or bought out at $390? Could happen tomorrow.

That is obviously NOT going to happen. We just went through this song and dance. Are you paying attention to how Elon operates or what?

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I think his wording was misleading. SEC may fine him. I don't see where it gets to a criminal level. The criminal probe does not seem unreasonable, but I can't think of a realistic scenario where Elon committed a criminal act with his tweets. Does anyone have a reasonable scenario where Elon may be criminally liable for his tweets?

I don't think it will lead to anything criminally. I also do think, given the publicity, the DOJ & SEC would be negligent not to PROBE it. But actually taking it to prosecution would be unfathomable unless Elon wrote some really stupid things.

Funny enough, right now as bulls we should be praying Elon was like his brother said, super honest and has no filter. Because he tweets some really screwed up things. Imagine if what he tweet was the public version of what was said behind scenes... oomph.

Check the following out: SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell: ‘We would launch a weapon to defend the U.S.' - SpaceNews.com

This country has bigger problems if we eliminated our next generation Boeing & Lockheed because of a freaking tweet.

 

[TradingInvest]

Insolvency risk is effectively 0. Elon Musk could raise 2 billion dollars with text message to one of his friends.

Exactly... or raise $2B from Elon himself, or sell the business... those who think Tesla has an insolvency risk are not competent in this game. They will suffer because they don't understand it. But by far the biggest point they don't understand is that Model 3 is a high volume high margin product.

I still remember in 2012 shorts were so sure Tesla was going to run out of money and bankrupt. In reality, even if they do run out of money in 2012, they could have sold the business at $72, almost a double.

Today it's in a much better situation.

 

[TradingInvest]

That is obviously NOT going to happen. We just went through this song and dance. Are you paying attention to how Elon operates or what?

It could still happen later, but the accredited investor rule has to be fixed first.

 

[sdtslafan]

I think his wording was misleading. SEC may fine him. I don't see where it gets to a criminal level. The criminal probe does not seem unreasonable, but I can't think of a realistic scenario where Elon committed a criminal act with his tweets. Does anyone have a reasonable scenario where Elon may be criminally liable for his tweets?

Sure, lets say he wrote an email to JB and said, "Look, JB, I'm sick and tired of these fat lazy shorts...and I'm going to start making things up just to screw with them and initiate the SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE CENTURY!!"

To which JB replies: Elon, I don't think that is a wise decision and I think there may be more constructive uses of your time.

Followed by Elon's realization: That's true, I haven't tweeted about the pedo in a while..!!! I totally can't wait till he sues me!! Oh, wait, he just did :|

I personally just can't believe Elon behaved so stupidly. Part of me wants to think it's all part of a bear trap, but logically I know that's not the case. How could he not know he would be held accountable when he was tweeting that crap!!??!

I think brilliant people have strengths which appear to be balanced by gaping (often unbelievable) deficiencies - we're finding it out the hard way with Elon. I think it comes down to lack of respect of authority.
This is what has allowed Elon to succeed but has also led to his failures.

 

[AJB0611]

This DOJ investigation is complete bs. These issues are best handled by the SEC. I hope these journalists work their sources at the DOJ and figure out what the hell they're going for. Any suggestions what the DOJ is thinking?

 

[Intl Professor]

Most of life is how we chose to respond. I post here infrequently because this place represents a different view point than my own. If you wish to apply some label to it ( troll fud whatever) thats on you. Personally someone elses views don't really bother me. If the moderators want to ban me, thats okay.

As for today, I am not sure how anyone can hold a meaningful position long in this stock without taking into account the real risks associated with whats going on. Does this news not effect your outlook on the company? What, if any, catalyst be needed for you to change your mind? I am genuinely curious. As a short seller, my opinion would change if the company got a new CEO and was structurally profitable on a sustained basis. I was considering covering part of my short ( at a handsome profit i might add) if they were able to report healthy demand in M3, ingoing demand, positive FCF, and start paying off the albratross of debt due in one year. The numbers are plain for all to see - 3 billion in accounts payable, short term debt of 2 billion, less than 1.3 billion in cash ( net deposits), and a bottom line burn of 700 million quarterly. You can read them on tesla's own 10q.

good luck

I've been TSLA long only since 2010. TSLA has a dizzying history of short term ups and downs. I admire those able to make money on these changes as traditional analysts who ignore fundamentals of nature and technology including Tesla's capex. My concern is with the fundamentals and Tesla is neither short of cash, demand, nor ideas for expansion in existing lines and new products. An easy defense for a long.

What principles do you use for judging when to buy and sell short term? I'm too old to learn them but I'm sure others would like to know your secret sauce, unless of course too many may use it thus screwing the pooch—kinda like reverse crowd sourcing. You sound a bit like our wealth manager who is shocked I bought Baidu at $8.67 and Tesla overall at about $93 average because they now constitute close to 58% of our portfolio. Just sold some BIDU to pay cash for our M3 on Sunday and except for TSLA have given him green light to move stuff into safer investments because the Orange and Congress and tariffs are going to crash the economy. (I do wish he hadn't sold the 100 shares we had in NVDIA at $17 and change per share three years ago.) Did you miss that train too?

 

[Xpert]

This DOJ investigation is complete bs. These issues are best handled by the SEC. I hope these journalists work their sources at the DOJ and figure out what the hell they're going for. Any suggestions what the DOJ is thinking?

Perhap rich oil bastards have connections to DOJ, pushing them to do a voluntary inquiry in an effort to damage Tesla, but as Tesla said, this should end quickly. There are no bases for further subpoena. Not a lawyer.

 

[Electroman]

Don't know where to put it, so i will post it here.

Jon McNeil is peddling Lyft service by giving a tank of free gas! Oh s*it. He left Tesla to do this??

We are celebrating 1 Billion rides today by surprising thousands of drivers with a free tank of gas. @lyft loves our drivers! Thank you to our drivers and passengers -- onto the next Billion!

Jon McNeill on Twitter

30 odd upvotes and a few comments that ridicule his decision.

 

[Intl Professor]

Someone pass the rope.

Or kick the chair? You're almost as funny as your cat.

 

[JRP3]

Of course there was no such requirement.

However, since Elon DID very specifically state that there WERE no other contingencies, there WAS a requirement that his statement be truthful. Or if mistaken, promptly withdrawn and corrected.

Since the entire thing was speculative in nature, i.e. "Considering", there were obviously other inherent contingecies, specifically him changing his mind. Nothing was written in stone nor could it be construed as such.

Look, if you refuse to look directly at the problem, and remain determined to squint hard enough to see some loophole for Elon here, then fine, I'm never going to convince you. But for myself, I still think Elon's at risk, and there may well be consequences. I guess we'll all have to wait to find out how DOJ sees things. And if necessary, the courts.

There are always risks, a corrupted system could find fault where there is none.