TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

In physics postgraduates are typically already highly specialized and good PhD students are spending most of their time working on a particular research topic.

The "deep learning" is mostly done by that time and if they are good they never stop learning for the rest of their careers, and I think Elon is good.

In that sense I think leaving the PhD track was a net benefit for him, because it broadened his experience and his perspective.

I am someone who got a PhD and then did 4 years of postdoctoral work in statistics. I also have more than 20 years as a practicing statistician in business. In my experience, deep learning does not happen that much as an undergraduate. Even as a graduate student, it is not until you do original research for a thesis or later that the real deep learning happens. I highly value the 4 years I spent as a post-doc, as that has given me a distinct edge within a business context. It has given me much more flexibility, creativity and independence in how I approach problem. To say that experience with highly specialized research is not valuable fails to understand just what one gains in the process. In my experience, it has paid dividends through my whole career.

Perhaps Elon could say the same for experience he got building Zip2. But I do think if he had done doctoral level research, he'd be making very good use of that experience today. My point is not to discredit Musk, who is quite extraordinary in many ways, but simply to affirm that there is lasting value in doctoral level research.

 

[cheshire cat]

Oh, I'm expecting a climb. And I don't really think the stock price will drop anything like that. *But* we haven't yet seen what FUD timed with massive short selling is going to do. I'm *hoping* for (though not *expecting*) the drop because that will be enough motivation to pull out of other investments into $TSLA because at that low a price point the percentage increase in value will be great.

Why <$260? Because that's the best they've pulled of late. I think its greedy to ask them for <$200

C'mon, shorty shorts! Last time I asked you *did* deliver ~$252. Go for it! I believe in you!

Enough dry powder for one last shot, on the 'scope will do, on the cross hairs would be too much to hope for

 

[LoveTSLA]

Good call.

Be patient, the day is not ended yet.

 

[Todd Burch]

Ah man, whats up with the analyst manipulation last few days?

You must be new here.

 

[AndyH]

I'm also sick and tired of all the shorts and stupid articles about Tesla but in the grand scheme of things maybe it doesn't matter.

Tesla is still a somewhat small company that hasn't yet proven itself in mass production. Despite this the market cap is over 50 billion dollars. Bigger than giants like GM and Ford. That's impressive and indicates a massive amount of trust from investors.

The shorts and others shenanigans haven't really made any lasting damage. If any other company was the target of the constant s**tstorm that hits Tesla daily that company would just crumble to pieces.

What do you think is a well motivated SP for Tesla right now before q3 numbers? I think 330-350.

 

[humbaba]

I'm also sick and tired of all the shorts and stupid articles about Tesla but in the grand scheme of things maybe it doesn't matter.

Tesla is still a somewhat small company that hasn't yet proven itself in mass production. Despite this the market cap is over 50 billion dollars. Bigger than giants like GM and Ford. That's impressive and indicates a massive amount of trust from investors.

The shorts and others shenanigans haven't really made any lasting damage. If any other company was the target of the constant s**tstorm that hits Tesla daily that company would just crumble to pieces.

What do you think is a well motivated SP for Tesla right now before q3 numbers? I think 330-350.

Now that is an Amiga-esque rocket. Memories.

I'm a bit more conservative -- the SP just doesn't seem to respond to good news and there are plenty of sell orders to keep it down. Any number is really a guess, but I'll say $320 ±20? But, hey, what do I know?

 

[TradingInvest]

I think V9 is a big deal. Shorts and bots don't understand the significance yet. Automatic lane change probably will be scary to try at first, especially the "Mad Max" lane change. "Navigate on Autopilot" is a major step, now we essentially have full autonomous on highway (drivers' attention is still required, please). Let's be safe, first try "Mild" automatic lane change.

V9 will likely to drive up demand and ASP. Other car companies can only watch or keep firing their CEOs. I heard MB CEO stepped down. Ford CEO was fired a while back. Audi CEO in jail. VW CEO fired, then the second VW CEO said he is one step in jail and he got replaced... I guess BMW CEO is the next. We are at the point that shareholders and boards realize autonomous EV revolution is here, they ask the CEOs to come up with a viable plan, but the CEOs can't. So they replace the CEOs. This will not work.

For local driving, the car needs to react to traffic lights and stop signs. I guess this already works in shadow mode. After this piece, the next step is automatic turning. It may take a while... V10.

Don't be fooled by GS and MS. Buy and hold shares with free cash. Sit. Save more cash.

 

[humbaba]

I think V9 is a big deal. Shorts and bots don't understand the significance yet. Automatic lane change probably will be scary to try at first, especially the "Mad Max" lane change. "Navigate on Autopilot" is a major step, now we essentially have full autonomous on highway (drivers' attention is still required, please). Let's be safe, first try "Mild" automatic lane change.

V9 will likely to drive up demand and ASP. Other car companies can only watch or keep firing their CEOs. I heard MB CEO stepped down. Ford CEO was fired a while back. Audi CEO in jail. VW CEO fired, then the second VW CEO said he is one step in jail and he got replaced... I guess BMW CEO is the next. We are at the point that shareholders and boards realize autonomous EV revolution is here, they ask the CEOs to come up with a viable plan, but the CEOs can't. So they replace the CEOs. This will not work.

For local driving, the car needs to react to traffic lights and stop signs. I guess this already works in shadow mode. After this piece, the next step is automatic turning. It may take a while... V10.

V9 + me = demand

I've wanted a Tesla since the first roadster. But it is EAP that got me to (almost) break my first rule of finance (no debt) and get an M3 + EAP. IMO, once the market (car buyers, not stock) figures out what EAP is I think the demand will not be sated until it has completely saturated the market.

As I've said before, I'm not that much of a believer in full autonomous driving -- but perhaps more importantly I'm not sure that it matters that much to the car buying market. The value of autonomous is in driving taxi pricing down into the dirt by eliminating drivers with EV picking up the spare change by lowering maintenance costs. As such, I think it is a mistake to take any current valuation of taxi services without devaluating the sugar out of it due to the race-to-the-bottom implicit in many competitors trying to achieve lowest cost (Waymo, Uber, Lyft, GM Cruise, Nio, etc.). In other words, IMO, the value attached to autonomous driving is overblown, a bubble that will never come to pass.

Mark my words: just my opinion I'm almost certainly wrong

[edit to correct equation and tweak disclaimer]

 

[Tslynk67]

What a boring day! Can someone here buy a couple of million shares to get things moving? Ta...

I guess the big players are waiting until they see the delivery figures, then hopefully will be buy buy buy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If anyone is interested in getting a good laugh:

A Day of Reckoning Awaits Tesla Stock As ‘This Time’ Seems Different

 

[capster]

V9 + me = demand

I've wanted a Tesla since the first roadster. But it is EAP that got me to (almost) break my first rule of finance (no debt) and get an M3 + EAP. IMO, once the market (car buyers, not stock) figures out what EAP is I think the demand will not be sated until it has completely saturated the market.

As I've said before, I'm not that much of a believer in full autonomous driving -- but perhaps more importantly I'm not sure that it matters that much to the car buying market. The value of autonomous is in driving taxi pricing down into the dirt by eliminating drivers with EV picking up the spare change by lowering maintenance costs. As such, I think it is a mistake to take any current valuation of taxi services without devaluating the sugar out of it due to the race-to-the-bottom implicit in many competitors trying to achieve lowest cost (Waymo, Uber, Lyft, GM Cruise, Nio, etc.). In other words, IMO, the value attached to autonomous driving is overblown, a bubble that will never come to pass.

Mark my words: just my opinion I'm almost certainly wrong

[edit to correct equation and tweak disclaimer]

People vastly underestimate the negative health effects of daily commuting by car. The cognitive load of driving drains mental energy/will power that could otherwise be used to choose to exercise or to resist the desire for that sugary snack or those drinks; not to mention accidents avoided. There is far greater *real* value to individuals and to society provided by advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving than they will cost to develop and deploy widely. Word will get around as people experience the benefits.

Imagine also the value of the erstwhile drivers' time that is freed up. That is quantifiable and some of that value realizable. Ever wonder why Google got interested in autonomous driving...

 

[ZeApelido]

oh great I have well-known FUD reporter asking me for the e-mail I have a copy of (in this thread). What do I do?

 

[LordAstinus]

oh great I have well-known FUD reporter asking me for the e-mail I have a copy of (in this thread). What do I do?

Offer it to @ZachShahan and/or Tom Randall (@tsrandall) | Twitter. They'll know better how to spin it.

 

[Snapdragon III]

oh great I have well-known FUD reporter asking me for the e-mail I have a copy of (in this thread). What do I do?

Ignore them.

 

[humbaba]

People vastly underestimate the negative health effects of daily commuting by car. The cognitive load of driving drains mental energy/will power that could otherwise be used to choose to exercise or to resist the desire for that sugary snack or those drinks; not to mention accidents avoided. There is far greater *real* value to individuals and to society provided by advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving than they will cost to develop and deploy widely. Word will get around as people experience the benefits.

Imagine also the value of the erstwhile drivers' time that is freed up. That is quantifiable and some of that value realizable. Ever wonder why Google got interested in autonomous driving...

I have a ~10 minute commute. When I've had longer I've used public transit. IMO public transit is a far better option than millions of autonomous vehicles. It is more efficient in terms of energy, space and money. But in the US the vast majority of the population have been sold on the notion of "driving independence" so we have a significant imbalance in private vs public transportation. In that regard FSD is a prop to support the carcass of waste that is private transportation.

But agree with me or not on autonomous driving, your contention that it is valuable to consumers does nothing to shore up the assumption that there is a large amount of dollars to be had by driving taxi service costs into the dirt. *That* is the assumption that I'm challenging/disbelieve in wrt to markets. FSD wrt consumer car buyers and the "when will it be here" IMO belong in another thread (at least one of which exists).

In short, I'm not sure we disagree *that* much. The gist of it might be that I'd rather pay the public costs of real public transit than pay for a private vehicle that duplicates that function.

 

[JRP3]

oh great I have well-known FUD reporter asking me for the e-mail I have a copy of (in this thread). What do I do?

Is that a real question? If so, don't aid the enemy.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ignore them.

Agreed, all they want to do is create a nice click-bait headline that will damage Tesla just that little bit more.

 

[Tslynk67]

If anyone is interested in getting a good laugh:

A Day of Reckoning Awaits Tesla Stock As ‘This Time’ Seems Different

He's right about it being different, this time it's for real, here we come!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

It’s typical for “news” outlets to switch their attacks from cars to solar as they are running out of ammo and Model 3 continues to dominate the mid size luxury market. It’s also typical to find bad yelp reviews online in any business. As far as I know, Tesla solar customers are quite happy once the product is installed, yes in some cases there are screw ups. Like when an installer punctures a roof because the house is an older built (instead of using 2x4s some homes only have 1 inch of wood on their roof, in this case a nail will go straight through the 1 inch no matter who the installer is).

Once Tesla clears the solar hurdle the same “news” outlet will move onto attacking Tesla for its next product, the cycle will never end as the writer, editor, publisher are all eating from the insane growth of Tesla mania.

In my opinion this is the best gift as a Tesla investor though not as a resident of Earth. This kind of bias will be to their detriment. In a sense living out in their own made up reality. Once realized, if ever, will be too late. I have a good amount Tesla stocks used for trading and the wild swings is a gift. Each year my long term hold gets bigger vs prior year thanks to nonbelievers.

 

[scaesare]

oh great I have well-known FUD reporter asking me for the e-mail I have a copy of (in this thread). What do I do?

Tell them to pound sand, of course...