TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

i see some chomping at the bit to jump in tomorrow. clearly not an expert but i think before jumping in it’s prob wise to let the fallout of at least some regular trading occur to see what’s what. im not optimistic about the near term bounce back here. too much left to unfold. thoughts?

Absolutely. Much better to miss out on a modest rebound than to get in before the stock falls substantially further. I'm not planning to do anything tomorrow, but I'm already loaded to the gills with TSLA calls. I was finally getting to a reasonably comfortable spot after the taking private fiasco, and now the SEC does this. It's exhausting. Right about now, I'm very envious of investors who are only long stock, not calls.

 

[dc_h]

Another note, did Audi contact the SEC when their president went to jail? Did they go to SEC to note that they have recklessly endangered 1000’s of lives with pollution cheats? VW, Mercedes? How about GM when they apparently approve=ved condemning 124 or more people to fatal car accidents and risked their senior mgmt going to prison?

Where’s the sec when VW employees and Mercedes employees write false or misleading articles or take pictures and stalk Elon and make false claims about production or quality, etc. where’s sec when Lynette Lopez seems to have personal relationship with a short seller and writes false or misleading articles?

 

[bdy0627]

Interesting timing by SEC

I don't know. Do you really believe they follow the technicals on stocks and release news like this based upon that? There isn't a good time for news like this.

 

[mongo]

There are no breakers in the after hours. Or even I believe I the last 30 minutes of the regular hours.
Stay frosty.

Normal breaker limits are doubled at opening and closing periods pre 9:45am and post 3:35pm.

Uptick is based on previous day's close and regular trading hours.
Division of Trading and Markets: Responses to Frequently Asked Questions Concerning Rule 201 of Regulation SHO

 

[Xpert]

Some big holders will be looking to exit. There are funds which have in their disclosures that they cannot invest in companies under investigations. Would probsbly Apple to CEOs as well. So I would expect some significant selling. Maybe not directly tomorrow but it’s going to happen.

There are still a lot of big bull money believing in tesla and Elon per Oppenheimer. Price is already starting to recover. To the longs out there, please do not sell like I did last time Elon smoke weed which I regretted dearly. Do not hand the shorts your money. Hold strong next few days, this too shall pass. I will be looking to add more on this ridiculous dip. Short term Q3 delivery number will be the main deciding factor. Long term the Truth will come out and Elon will be ok.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I'm trying to ponder what that $5 bump in the last hour of AH trading might indicate for tomorrow. Or just shorts covering and cashing in their "winnings"?

If today has taught me anything, it's that while I've known the forces arrayed against Tesla are powerful I still underestimated them.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think it has to do with the funding secured part - implying that a takeover bid had already transpired. In hindsight It clearly did not, as no buyer was ever found. Given musk's outspoken disdain for short sellers, a real case can be made for trying to goose the price by releasing false news.

As for my history about the SEC act of 1934, feel free to correct me if I am wrong recounting any facts there.

I think I have explained clearly in my previous post. Saudi's sovereign fund wanted to take Tesla private. The subsequent events showed at least 2 sovereign funds, VW, SilverLake, etc. put together $30B to participate the taking private event. When you continue to say "In hindsight It clearly did not, as no buyer was ever found." That in my view is FUD.

You may or may not know, this privatization is not a normal sense of leveraged buyout, in that Elon Musk didn't plan to sell his shares, lots of existing shareholders wanted to stay in the private company. $30B should be more than enough to take it private.

 

[defc0n]

This is interesting.

 

[KarenRei]

DJ Newswire just had headline that Elon's lawyers rejected SEC settlement offer on Thursday.

Link?

Ed: Found this (referenced above), is that what you referring to?

 

[tivoboy]

Normal breaker limits are doubled at opening and closing periods pre 9:45am and post 3:35pm.

Uptick is based on previous day's close and regular trading hours.
Division of Trading and Markets: Responses to Frequently Asked Questions Concerning Rule 201 of Regulation SHO

Let’s not confuse the MARKET cicrcuit breakers with the stock limit up limit down rules. Big differences.

 

[TNEVol]

Actually, if what I suspected from today's price action is true ($TSLA went down with strong short sales pressure, despite the NASDAQ breaking to new highs all day and Tesla having had positive news this week), that someone at the SEC leaked the impending lawsuit to short traders and they traded on it, then that's multiple felonies, potential jail time and disbarment.

And yes, the SEC, as a government agency, can of course be sued in civil court as well, for example if evidence of foul play and fraud emerges.

Actually the SEC is not subject to civil suit for fraud etc. The govt is only subject to suit to require it to do its job or enjoin it from unauthorized acts. You cannot sue the govt like a person unfortunately.

 

[TradingInvest]

Interesting timing by SEC

Seeing what the EPA has been doing in the past 2 years, I wouldn't be surprised if some one at SEC picked the timing.

 

[theschnell]

First of all, all the headlines saying Elon is charged with "Fraud" are false and misleading. He did nothing fraudulent. Under no circumstances would a reasonable person come to the conclusion he intended to defraud anyone. Its not like he sold his shares after the tweet. He has absolutely no personal gain from his tweet whatsoever.

He also did not make false statements, at least not in the form of his intent. His tweets were in his mind accurate both then and now.

Admittedly an objective observer might see "funding secured" as misleading given the facts, but that was not Musk's intent. In his mind, funding was secured. Which makes the "funding secured" only possibly unintentionally misleading, but certainly not false.

So the "Fraud" headlines are totally bogus. He is being charged with making "false and misleading" statements. That's not a great headline either, but its far below "Fraud".

My first thought was that he should have settled if one was offered, but now I'm glad he's fighting this nonsense. It will hang over the stock for a while, but its worth the fight. The odds of him being barred as an offer or director are slim. The odds of him being fined are probably 50/50 I think. Whatever. Let it play out in the courts. If he gets fined, whatever, life will go on...

 

[Revhappy2]

Atleast, one of the 2 things below should have happened after the go private tweet
1) TSLA should have indeed gone private. After making a big statement like that, you can't back off so soon. Many people on this thread believed him that it was certain and bought shares at 370.
2) Saudis should have come out in the open and supported Elon Musk, instead they did quite the opposite. They went and invested in TSLA rival Lucid.

For a layman out there, the interpretation is not very good picture of Elon Musk.

 

[theschnell]

Personally I'm glad the SEC came out with the charges today rather than next week after the deliveries number comes out. Would have been an even tougher fall from there.

 

[AWDtsla]

Looking back at Theranos for past high profile SEC actions. Lots of people knew Theranos was problematic, but the stock fell off a cliff in November 2015, signalling everyone new it was a fraud. SEC files lawsuit against Holmes ~2.5 years later, with fraud clearly in the first line of the complaint https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2018/comp-pr2018-41-theranos-holmes.pdf

In Elon's case, SEC files against him in less than 2 months, mentions no fraud, only false and misleading statements, and no financial gain.

Huh... Passed my last 4 hours reeling in my chair. Now this smells like BS.

 

[theschnell]

Atleast, one of the 2 things below should have happened after the go private tweet
1) TSLA should have indeed gone private. After making a big statement like that, you can't back off so soon. Many people on this thread believed him that it was certain and bought shares at 370.
2) Saudis should have come out in the open and supported Elon Musk, instead they did quite the opposite. They went and invested in TSLA rival Lucid.

For a layman out there, the interpretation is not very good picture of Elon Musk.

Musk backed off as soon as he realized his mistake that many investors would find it very difficult to stay in if the company went private. I'm glad he bailed as soon as he came to that realization rather then drag out the uncertainty.

The fact that the Saudis stabbed him in the back should not reflect poorly on him. Even in the SEC's lawsuit, they do not challenge the facts that the Saudi's were serious in their interest.

 

[bhtooefr]

So the SEC did offer him a settlement, apparently?

That implies that there was something incredibly nasty in that proposed settlement that made it worth fighting instead, or Musk is... sometimes a bit of an idiot. (That's not an XOR, mind you.)

 

[JRP3]

SEC Sues Elon Musk for Fraud, Seeks Removal From Tesla

 

[Xpert]

Looking back at Theranos for past high profile SEC actions. Lots of people knew Theranos was problematic, but the stock fell off a cliff in November 2015, signalling everyone new it was a fraud. SEC files lawsuit against Holmes ~2.5 years later, with fraud clearly in the first line of the complaint https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2018/comp-pr2018-41-theranos-holmes.pdf

In Elon's case, SEC files against him in less than 2 months, mentions no fraud, only false and misleading statements, and no financial gain.

Huh... Passed my last 4 hours reeling in my chair. Now this smells like BS.

Because it is BS. Oil bosses have the SEC in their pocket, from the look of it.

Can anyone find the SEC’s finalized settlement that Elon declined? This tells me Elon has a good case, and the SEC is taking revenge. They couldnt care less about us small investors.