TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wsucougz]

... By that time when they argue on the court about the 420 price the jury would be like I wish I can buy at that price.

An Advice.

 

[Brian121]

Enough is enough. Musk's refusal to settle is bewildering, and hurts many people.
I hope he gets kicked out of the CEO role, even if that hurts me even more financially.
Tesla will do fine with him as a Chief Product guy, and with his ownership stake, he could get done whatever needs to get done anyhow, without being CEO.

*I haven't been able to read last two days because of travelling, but what I've seen, makes me think that it's only extremists left on this thread, moderates are gone. So I'm unlikely to be responding to avalanche of criticism and explanations 'how weak I am', that I'm likely to get.

I think the NYT article accurately described the situation why Elon did not settle. At least by hearing Elon side's story, we get a sense of where the "funding secured" came from. (Actually I believed that Elon clarified this next day in the letter from Tesla website), that they had a verbal agreement for the funding with Saudis. So it's nothing new.

Dragging this one for several years does not bother me at all. We buy several years to shore up Tesla's business, both product and finance. And then what happens happens. But by that time we could be, hopefully, 70% done with Elon's Master plan 2, with Model 3, Y, Semi, and Roadster 2 grabbing a significant market share.

Even if Elon has to resign from the CEO and chairman, no big deal. By that time he is probably more focus on Mars colony already.

Let along there is a chance of settlement down the road with a more favorable political environment and, above all, a big chance to win the case.

 

[BozieBeMe2]

I decided not to sell Tesla shares. I took this decision when I bought them. I do believe in Tesla/Elon mission. I'm here in a good and bad situation. I'm long.

In such moments I'm always going trough my fundamental reasons why I'm here:
1. Mother Earth needs me. The problem of human impact to this planet will not go away. I have to do something.
2. The society have problems with truth, bad people, self interests no matter to the consequences. I have to do something.
3. I'm the warrior as my father before me, as my grandfather before him...we never give up. Why? We never pick up the fight according to the enemy, but according to the holiness we defend. This was laid in my cradle.

Elon had the opportunity to settle down this issue with SEC. If he accept it he would lose his face. He knows that. It would be as he betrayed his basic principle to change what is bad in humanity. He stood with his believes even when this path will be hard for him. I didn't think that he can rise my respect even more, but he did. Elon is true warrior.

I'm preparing ammo for next week. Any suggestion what can I do more?

Yes, use the media Twitter, flood it with facts and employe truth, not falsehoods like the SEC is trying to do.
SEC Enforcement (@SEC_Enforcement) | Twitter

 

[dqd88]

I think we should expect the SP to go up and down dramatically, unexpectedly.

There are so many small and big things that can move the SP quite a bit. Apparently DOJ is looking into this as well - they may file a criminal charge. Then there are all these investment firms that can downgrade TSLA whenever they want. Then we have delivery numbers & earnings. There could be all kinds of small and big things that happen in this SEC case. Its going to be a wild ride.

Downside catalysts:
DOJ files charges
Analysts downgrades
Numbers fall short Q3
SEC sues Tesla, Inc.

Upside catalysts:
DOJ drops investigation
Analysts upgrades
Numbers beat Q3
SEC drops lawsuit

I feel good about the DOJ, just a hunch. Don't think there's much there, I give it 10% it breaks down, 90% up.
SEC - If no news next week, more longs sell. I think some positives come out as we see Elon's defense unfold. I have always thought he was being honest. His funding tweet was unconventional and boneheaded but legal.

Numbers beat slightly, particularly EPS. Car volume not as important if ASP is higher than expected.
2 analysts in Oct upgrade from sell to hold.
SEC settlement in Nov.
DOJ drops investigation in mid Oct.

 

[dqd88]

Enough is enough. Musk's refusal to settle is bewildering, and hurts many people.
I hope he gets kicked out of the CEO role, even if that hurts me even more financially.
Tesla will do fine with him as a Chief Product guy, and with his ownership stake, he could get done whatever needs to get done anyhow, without being CEO.

*I haven't been able to read last two days because of travelling, but what I've seen, makes me think that it's only extremists left on this thread, moderates are gone. So I'm unlikely to be responding to avalanche of criticism and explanations 'how weak I am', that I'm likely to get.

Musk is in the right and will be exonerated soon. You don't know all the facts.

 

[dc_h]

Enough is enough. Musk's refusal to settle is bewildering, and hurts many people.
I hope he gets kicked out of the CEO role, even if that hurts me even more financially.
Tesla will do fine with him as a Chief Product guy, and with his ownership stake, he could get done whatever needs to get done anyhow, without being CEO.

*I haven't been able to read last two days because of travelling, but what I've seen, makes me think that it's only extremists left on this thread, moderates are gone. So I'm unlikely to be responding to avalanche of criticism and explanations 'how weak I am', that I'm likely to get.

I understand your frustration. I think if there’s no guilt and statement of fraud, but negligence, he should sign off. I think adding two independent board members and a co-chairman to let him focus on his strengths and let the board run interference with the media and get the word out there that Tesla is a force for good! Elon fans tend to be change agents and opinion leaders. Having someone more mainstream out there pushing the Tesla story, like RonBaron used to, is a big missing asset for Tesla.

I’m ok with him during it out with the sec if they want to make him admit guilt, or set him up for further investigation. But some added governance and moving to a more stable , but still aggressive innovation engine, is the middle ground I prefer. It will lead Tesla to be the leading car company in 10 years and greatly reduce the gyrations that may cause turnover in senior staff and the stock.

 

[dqd88]

Most definitely, the longer the better. During which time we will see occasional buying opportunities but they won't hide the fact that Tesla is making profit hand over fist. We will see first batch of semi platoons, model y already made the killing, new roadster ... By that time when they argue on the court about the 420 price the jury would be like I wish I can buy at that price.

Do you know the Semi and Roadster will be built?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So that's about as much SP fallout as is gonna happen IMO. Until the next government-sanctioned short attack, but I think they really blew their wad here and can't do much else. I honestly think we have only positive events to look forward to moving forward.

Don't forget the threatened DOJ investigation. There's something they could roll out b4 the Q3 EC.

 

[sundaymorning]

Enough is enough. Musk's refusal to settle is bewildering, and hurts many people.
I hope he gets kicked out of the CEO role, even if that hurts me even more financially.
Tesla will do fine with him as a Chief Product guy, and with his ownership stake, he could get done whatever needs to get done anyhow, without being CEO.

*I haven't been able to read last two days because of travelling, but what I've seen, makes me think that it's only extremists left on this thread, moderates are gone. So I'm unlikely to be responding to avalanche of criticism and explanations 'how weak I am', that I'm likely to get.

Z, a lot of emotions have crossed my mind the past 24 hours. I was extremely upset with Elon about putting us through $420 when profits are just around the corner. The DOJ’s investigation made me even angrier at him. Like you, I’ve also expressed with friends I no longer want this guy as ceo. But after having read about what the SEC wanted from him, putting his SpaceX company in jeopardy is completely vindictive and out of character.

There are those who spend a lifetime building up their legacy, while others spend days and nights trying to tear it down, all for what? To me, someone at the SEC is trying to make a name for themselves. This case could have been easily resolved by the SEC in a dozen different ways. A large fine, $10-20 million, etc and double it again if Elon screws up in the future. But barring one of this century’s greatest inventor from ever being an officier again is taking his livilihood from him. I have to stand behind Elon on this, I’ll be flying to New York to make my voice heard when this goes to trial (I’m sure along with large crowds of adoring fans) to make sure those bastards at the SEC understand they’ve bullied the wrong guy.

I do admit that Elon’s made an @ss out of himself the last couple months. But I think he still has a lot, and I mean a lot of fans/supporters who will stick their necks out for him, and that includes me. I dont know the reason, perhaps in some ways I wish I can be as brave when standing up against the establishment, but I’m not. Elon is the guy to do that, he’s capable, he’s made mistakes, it’s hurting shareholders, but I’m betting that 3 months from now when profits are flowing into Tesla it’ll be much easier to forgive. For now, I don’t blame you for being upset, he screwed up massively and put himself as well as all of us in this situation. But there’s just no way in hell im signing that document if it puts my SpaceX on the hook. I’m in this fight till the very end, the SEC bullies only emboldened my support. For now, I hope you get some rest and continue to update us on your thoughts. You’re one of the good guys around here.

 

[Remus]

Do you know the Semi and Roadster will be built?

I should qualify those statement:" as an investor who believe the long term vision of the company"

 

[Brian121]

One thing I noticed, whoever is long stock only, no margin, tends to be more resilient. But friends here doing option trades are feeling more pain.

The hope to make a killing and get rich quick is very enticing, but with derivitives there is a lot of chances that instead of outsmart the market, you only outsmart yourself.

Beside long, stock only and no margin. I would add another criteria "set aside the money critical for your other life expenditures for the next 5 to 8 years".

I have 2 kids in universities now and the third one a junior in high school. Even if I lose 100% I invest in Tesla now, I can see that I am going to have to adopt a different life style comparing with say Tesla going to $4,000/share. But my critical mission, that all my 3 kids will be able to go through the university w/o any financial difficulty within the next 4 to 6 year, is secured. So, in other word. Money invested in Tesla now is truly the money I can lose. Even though I am looking more for the life of prosperity because of TSLA.

 

[BrianZ]

Enough is enough. Musk's refusal to settle is bewildering, and hurts many people.
I hope he gets kicked out of the CEO role, even if that hurts me even more financially.
Tesla will do fine with him as a Chief Product guy, and with his ownership stake, he could get done whatever needs to get done anyhow, without being CEO.

*I haven't been able to read last two days because of travelling, but what I've seen, makes me think that it's only extremists left on this thread, moderates are gone. So I'm unlikely to be responding to avalanche of criticism and explanations 'how weak I am', that I'm likely to get.

Zhelko I respect your opinion on your posts, including this one. I'd even be inclined to agree with you if it happened to another CEO. But in this case, Elon and Tesla are clearly being bullied by Wall Street here, and having them back down and conceit defeat to these bullies is just not the right or just way to go. Elon needs to stand his ground on this bullying. Enough is enough.

 

[Dwdnjck]

It looks like we are going to have climb the “Wall of Worry” one more time.

 

[defc0n]

TSLA is always an adventure I’ll give it that. I knew Musk had lots of enemies but I still continue to be amazed at how far that reaches.

SEC doesn’t seem to have much of a case. As much as it may hurt me in the near term I think he did the right thing. I would’ve done the same as him given everything I know now.

Except I wouldn’t have tweeted stuff like that in the first place

Hope Tesla’s workers can keep their focus and not considering bailing due to the distractions. That’s now my largest concern.

If 250 falls then I’d be more worried.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Meh.

Sorry, you were looking for an angry response? All you did was express an opinion. Nothing wrong with that. I prefer him not to get kicked out - I prefer him to win. And I can see many very important reasons for not accepting the settlement (admission of wrongdoing affecting government business and opening up the door to lawsuits, for example - or for a personal level to him, messing over his ability to gain his compensation package that he's been working towards. Or just the simple "not wanting to plead to an illegal action that you genuinely feel you didn't commit).

But you're entitled to your own differing view. Again... nothing wrong with that. If you were hoping to start a fight with that comment.. sorry, all you get is "meh"

I'm much, much, MUCH better at starting fights than you give me credit for, when I want to. This was obviously not that.
This was small little message how someone more than 100% invested in TSLA has turned on Musk.
Think about that, and think about it in the context of investors' continuum, not black and white...

Oh, and you're wrong about admission of wrongdoing, he wasn't asked for that. He would have been prohibited to claim he did nothing wrong, that was the problem. So it was his pride...

 

[sundaymorning]

Zhelko I respect your opinion on your posts, including this one. I'd even be inclined to agree with you if it happened to another CEO. But in this case, Elon and Tesla are clearly being bullied by Wall Street here, and having them back down and conceit defeat to these bullies is just not the right or just way to go. Elon needs to stand his ground on this bullying. Enough is enough.

I’m with you on this one. The SEC will definitely get backlash from this. They should have thought this one through before trying to take down a person like Musk. Sure the guy is controversial, but he’s no villain. He’s got a massive following and fans around the world adore him. He single handidly created 40,000 jobs in Tesla alone...We can all sit here and criticize the guy, but think of it this way, if we faced the same amount of pressure will we cave or will we continue the good fight? Will we make the right decisions along the way? How many times in past have we put our careers/livelihood at risk fighting for what we believe was right, just and honorable? For me it’s very few and far in between, I’ll stand up for what I believe, but in the face of imminent threat, I’ll know when to back down and save my own @ss. Having a guy like Musk, who doesn’t back down, might just be the right ingredient we need to fight those bullies.

Musk isn’t perfect, but my continued support isn’t just bc I’m a Tesla owner, but it’s also because I need someone to stand up to the establishment because I’m not brave enough to do it, nor do I have the funds/ability/resources... Musk is my guy.

 

[dqd88]

I think the NYT article accurately described the situation why Elon did not settle. At least by hearing Elon side's story, we get a sense of where the "funding secured" came from. (Actually I believed that Elon clarified this next day in the letter from Tesla website), that they had a verbal agreement for the funding with Saudis. So it's nothing new.

Dragging this one for several years does not bother me at all. We buy several years to shore up Tesla's business, both product and finance. And then what happens happens. But by that time we could be, hopefully, 70% done with Elon's Master plan 2, with Model 3, Y, Semi, and Roadster 2 grabbing a significant market share.

Even if Elon has to resign from the CEO and chairman, no big deal. By that time he is probably more focus on Mars colony already.

Let along there is a chance of settlement down the road with a more favorable political environment and, above all, a big chance to win the case.

Love your confidence. One concern alot of people have is whether this will affect their ability to raise add'l capital (for expansion, or debt payments).... thoughts?

 

[sundaymorning]

I'm much, much, MUCH better at starting fights than you give me credit for, when I want to. This was obviously not that.
This was small little message how someone more than 100% invested in TSLA has turned on Musk.
Think about that, and think about it in the context of investors' continuum, not black and white...

Oh, and you're wrong about admission of wrongdoing, he wasn't asked for that. He would have been prohibited to claim he did nothing wrong, that was the problem. So it was his pride...

Z, don’t forget that Musk’s lawyers were trying to negotiate a language change in the settlement that would not hinder his military contracts with SpaceX. Can you imagine? Had Musk signed that settlement and SpaceX becomes a target, he then would lose all leverage in the billions to raise capital, borrow money, etc. that would put Tesla in a world of pain, it would have opened up even more media attacks. Please consider this angle and allow yourself sometime to calm down. I’ve turned 180 on Musk but now have come full circle in supporting him. Those SEC guys are trying to pull a fast one, thank God Elon and his lawyers didnt take the bait.

 

[Remus]

. I have to stand behind Elon on this, I’ll be flying to New York to make my voice heard when this goes to trial (I’m sure along with large crowds of adoring fans) to make sure those bastards at the SEC

Count me in!

 

[BornToFly]

You think no more downside?

I don't think so. Already news reports saying that Elon could win case. I think the weekend will give time for people to think about this more, and start buying Monday for delivery report Tuesday. I could be wrong, but I think we go up 10+% on Monday.