TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Morgan Stanley, Adam Jones: Strong Tesla 3Q Deliveries Were Widely Expected, Except By Us - Hence Our Short Position Price Target Unchanged

 

[MarcusMaximus]

View attachment 340102 View attachment 340103 View attachment 340104 View attachment 340105
$73,310 + interest from financing (let’s say $1,500) + garage adaptation ($1,000 low end) + no-rinse wash setup plus initial ceramic coating detail ($400) plus sundries idk $500 = $76,710, so my $75K estimate is low. If you want an ugly one that might kill you going around normal hill roads in a 4-or-more-exception event (rain, oil slick, frozen patch, distraction by dog or baby, sun hits your eyes, unexpected bad sneeze, or phone or hot coffee falls off the mount into your lap), sure, knock off paint plus all whell drive and save $6,500+tax, and if you don’t want full self driving or assistance features, take off even more, and it’s basically a $59K artpiece in the driveway that you toy with on church day which has nothing to do with a single-car owning commuter like I was talking about.

Ah, there we go. So apparently any car ever made that isn’t AWD is a death trap, and the car is worthless without a preorder for fully self driving, or without autonomy features not present on any other cars <$100k. On that note, I guess a Tesla is the only viable vehicle of any kind on the planet!

 

[Zaxxon]

Updated with BMW's actual numbers. No change to the overall point, other than to now confirm that even if one adds in Mini, Tesla is now outselling BMW/Mini in total in the US.

Sorry for the quick update to the update, but Mercedes-Benz has now reported. Update including their actual #s:

If you add in M-B's van marques and the smart brand, the total is about 800 vehicles ahead of Tesla. We'll likely get them next month.

Still waiting on Audi to report.

 

[j0hn]

Twitter

Please RT for visability if you are on twitter. Lets see if tesla is doing anything about the lies and fud some media is clearly publishing.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Carmakers brace for shocks as electrified future looms
Paris auto show. It's starting to sink in that they're sinking.

...and the author of this pro EV article throws in this crap instead of praising Tesla for jump starting the EV movement by 10+ years.

"And with new technologies comes the chance for upstarts to jump in: Tesla's market value is greater than that of Renault and PSA combined despite production snafus and recent blunders by its flamboyant founder Elon Musk."

Typical FUD, unfortunately. Staying true Tesla. Staying long Tesla.

 

[ruralectric]

STOP WITH THE TRAINS!!!

PM whoever says something and take it to another thread. Please!

STOP WITH THE TRAINS!!!

PM whoever says something and take it to another thread. Please!

Geezus amen. Give it a F*g rest. Seems like those have been asked nicely. Multiple times.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sorry for the quick update to the update, but Mercedes-Benz has now reported. Update including their actual #s:

View attachment 340117

If you add in M-B's van marques and the smart brand, the total is about 800 vehicles ahead of Tesla. We'll likely get them next month.

Still waiting on Audi to report.

But if you just stick to cars and SUVs the 26,169 number is well down on 2017 again although it _doesn't_ put Tesla's estimated 2018Q3 US sales above Mercedes-Benz USA. People seem to write about Tesla eating BMW's lunch, but it seems more like Mercedes is the one being bullied.

 

[sweter]

Tesla has a business decision to make very soon as to how it allocates its production-constrained M3 product mix during 4Q18.

Does it start producing SRs so early US reservers can take advantage of the full tax credit before the credit declines by $3,750 on deliveries after 12/31/18?

Or

Does it begin filling the longer duration delivery channels internationally with LRs, AWDs, and Ps to capitalize on those models' higher GM %?

Europe is starving to get all those D's and all those P's.

 

[KarenRei]

Europe is starving to get all those D's and all those P's.

Upside: the longer it takes, the more likely we are to get tow and air suspension options

 

[mrdoubleb]

Misleading Headlines and Analysis Were Widely Expected, Concerns Remain on Sustainability.

 

[Words of HABIT]

By end of 2018, Tesla will be 1st, 2nd and 3rd for USA EVs.
Wow! Absolutely incredible. Way to go Tesla!

 

[30seconds]

What’s interesting to me is that they can start making the Model 3 in Shanghai, no need to wait for the Y. I wonder what the tariff impact is if they are sending battery packs and drive units from GF1 and making the rest of the car in China.

 

[mongo]

What’s interesting to me is that they can start making the Model 3 in Shanghai, no need to wait for the Y. I wonder what the tariff impact is if they are sending battery packs and drive units from GF1 and making the rest of the car in China.

Cell and pack assembly will be at the same location as vehicle assembly (per previous calls/letters).
Speaking of, will the Y launch in China first due to plant availability? (no replies in this thread...)

 

[emir-t]

Why not sell at ATM call with highest time value? You stop the time decay and give yourself some downside protection on your call while still gaining some upside from here. With this good delivery report, this is what I would do. I expected the shorts to push down sp this morning regardless.

I am so new to trading I don't know what this means while SP drops below 304$... Yesterday I was up 1800, now I'm up 1000. Sell, collect the 1000. Wait, get to 2k again tomorrow or drift below 1000. Options are stressful

 

[Bet TSLA]

What’s interesting to me is that they can start making the Model 3 in Shanghai, no need to wait for the Y. I wonder what the tariff impact is if they are sending battery packs and drive units from GF1 and making the rest of the car in China.

Irrelevant. They've already said that future gigafactories will produce batteries and packs and drive trains and vehicles.

 

[30seconds]

Cell and pack assembly will be at the same location as vehicle assembly (per previous calls/letters).
Speaking of, will the Y launch in China first due to plant availability? (no replies in this thread...)

If they are trying to accelerate the timing I don’t think they need to wait for the entire raw material to finished product capability to be ready.

Anyways from a transport standpoint it makes more sense to make both the 3 and the Y in both China and US

 

[mongo]

If they are trying to accelerate the timing I don’t think they need to wait for the entire raw material to finished product capability to be ready.

Anyways from a transport standpoint it makes more sense to make both the 3 and the Y in both China and US

They can set up the cell, pack, and vehicle lines simultaneously.
Regarding Y, it was a question of which country starts producing first. Tesla has not let on where Y will be made in the US yet.

 

[Quesder]

By end of 2018, Tesla will be 1st, 2nd and 3rd for USA EVs.
Wow! Absolutely incredible. Way to go Tesla!

View attachment 340118

FUD：
Tesla Model S sales dropped below Model X sales in September

 

[EVNow]

Twitter

Please RT for visability if you are on twitter. Lets see if tesla is doing anything about the lies and fud some media is clearly publishing.

How about some images as proof ?

 

[Crowded Mind]

I am so new to trading I don't know what this means while SP drops below 304$... Yesterday I was up 1800, now I'm up 1000. Sell, collect the 1000. Wait, get to 2k again tomorrow or drift below 1000. Options are stressful

Sounds like you aren't comfortable with the position you took. Take your gain and learn more before making a similar trade again. Or ideally just buy stock and hold for 10 years.