I'm frankly not going to do the work to file the SEC complaints, but the "missed Wall Street expectations" headline was so *blatantly* false and deliberately misleading that I hope *someone* captured it with timestamps to send to the SEC.
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I'm frankly not going to do the work to file the SEC complaints, but the "missed Wall Street expectations" headline was so *blatantly* false and deliberately misleading that I hope *someone* captured it with timestamps to send to the SEC.
Don't get me wrong I appreciate most of your skepticism, am just a little bit surprised since this level of bullishness is a rare find based on your past posts.
While I agree with most of the optimism, I think those are far from slam dunk. There are serious executional risks going forward. Tesla owners are still bothered by very long wait when it comes to repair, augmenting service infrastructure takes load of money. They need to smooth out delivery, stop this end-of-quarter-push nonsense that pisses off customers, which means they might get hit in some quarter's financials. And it is not easy to allocate very limited capital for so many different things, such as expanding service infra, building new factories, the model Y, pickup, semi. We still need loads of charging stations in apartment/condo complexes, grocery stores, hotels, fast food stops along highways.
Just so many things could go wrong and give shorts field days. I just wish we stay strong on those times reminding ourselves there will be rainbows after the storm, because Tesla is the only one who can build EVs profitably, and it's the only car builder who knows a thing or two about improving user experience in an ecosystem.
Screenshot, timestamp, document? This is all fodder for what should be an SEC case against the bearish market manipulators. I frankly am not going to do the work to assemble a dossier, but someone should.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I was musing this morning on how fast they got that new line running in Fremont this year- measured in months or maybe in weeks not years. Consider that and avoiding the missteps with the Model X/3 ramp and this could happen pretty quickly. It shouldn't be overlooked that construction projects in China usually happen faster than here in the U.S.
No matter your opinion on Trump's tariffs/trade war, it might be of benefit in lighting a fire to get Shanghai open and running even faster than it otherwise would have. The benefits are pretty clear.
Jovian
Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
(@neroden)
Note that IIRC even the 56,000 figure is probably a lie, the "expectations" website they used predicted 55,600-ish numbers, which the WSJ rounded up to 56,000 to be able to call it a 'miss' ... before comparing it to the non-rounded delivery numbers ...
(On phone, cannot check, writing from memory. If anyone has link & data please post it.)
This reminds me of a bunch of engineers watching a lake fill up. They know there is a limit to the strength of the dam holding the river back.
Laptops out they try and figure when the dam will burst. Every report shows more rain and the dam has some cracks......
bdy0627
Active Member
I really don't think it would matter how positive the news was today for Tesla. We are seeing normal trading resume after 2 days of the shorts being limited. They are back big time. Once the stock clears and holds $311+, it will be running upwards. Shorts will keep it below $310 for as long as they can. They would love to get it back below $300. There is also some profit taking going on of course. TSLA needs to hold $303ish to stay poised for a breakout above $311. That level held easily today. I'm anticipating $330+ within the next couple of weeks.
I saw posts about people expecting analysts to have to upgrade their financial models and price targets for Tesla. I think that's mostly wishful thinking. As we saw with Adam Jonas, I generally expect analysts to continue to support their existing perspective on Tesla. They will use whatever other data they want to support their opinion. Even with a rather good Q3 ER, I don't believe analysts will change their stances overnight. I think it will be a more gradual process. Analysts with bearish views are very unlikely to suddenly turn bullish.
I saw posts about people expecting analysts to have to upgrade their financial models and price targets for Tesla. I think that's mostly wishful thinking. As we saw with Adam Jonas, I generally expect analysts to continue to support their existing perspective on Tesla. They will use whatever other data they want to support their opinion. Even with a rather good Q3 ER, I don't believe analysts will change their stances overnight. I think it will be a more gradual process. Analysts with bearish views are very unlikely to suddenly turn bullish.
It's still like that right now. Google TSLA, then scroll right one click on the Top Stores bar.
I didn’t exactly nail the timing on the dip, but I bought my original shares +1 at 305.75.
This stock market thing is easy, sell higher, buy again lower right???
Reminder- I’m still an idiot investor
Yeah, but what if Elon had tweeted "Tesla Q3 +$500m GAAP profit" just after you sold, wouldn't have been a happy ending...
Which is why I won't trade - with $TSLA you never know what's going to happen one moment to the next!
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Sold more puts. The IV is ludicrously high right now.
Then SEC would sue him again taking the SP down by $40 or so.
My observation is that TSLA does not move up according to news released.
It moves up when some big buyer is accumulating, such as Tencent in early 2017 and SPIF in summer 2018 (prior to taking private tweet).
Otherwise it does the crazy volatile dance with big drops due to organized FUD attacks and slower recoveries as it becomes clear the "news" was fake.
ps: exception to this rule was the SEC settlement which caused recovery just as fast.
Yuri_G
Member
Can someone check the FactSet analyst consensus number? This is the first time I've ever heard of it.
That was just shorts undoing their massive drop on Thursday after-hours. I wouldn't consider it any sort of progress.
You may well be correct, but I daren't risk selling anything. I only have 520, which isn't enough to play with - especially give the €30 trade fee I pay plus some tax.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
According to:
Tesla beats Wall Street estimates for overall vehicle deliveries
"Model 3 deliveries were slightly above consensus estimates of 55,600, according to FactSet."
The WSJ, The Street and other news sites then rounded this up(?) to 56,000 to falsely claim a "miss"...
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas:
1. Tesla 3Q deliveries were 11% above our estimate and 8% above the street.
2. Volume surprises driven by Model 3 (+11% vs. MS), Model S (+12% vs. MS) and Model X (+10% vs. MS)
3. Production of 53,239 Model 3 units suggests average weekly production of approx. 4,100 with 5,300 produced in final week.
4. Model 3 mix skewed extremely high-end with production of dual motor exceeding single motor and nearly 100% of production dual motor over last few weeks.
5. Compared with MS 3Q forecast, the 8,192 total delivery beat (all models) could drive $600mm of incremental revenue and at least $200mm of incremental pretax, potentially making Tesla OP Positive on a GAAP basis for 3Q vs. our forecast of nearly $100mm US GAAP OP loss.
Of course that meant, recalculating the spreadsheet and adjusting their price target upwards to.... wait for it... $291
Unchanged! Laughable...
1. Tesla 3Q deliveries were 11% above our estimate and 8% above the street.
2. Volume surprises driven by Model 3 (+11% vs. MS), Model S (+12% vs. MS) and Model X (+10% vs. MS)
3. Production of 53,239 Model 3 units suggests average weekly production of approx. 4,100 with 5,300 produced in final week.
4. Model 3 mix skewed extremely high-end with production of dual motor exceeding single motor and nearly 100% of production dual motor over last few weeks.
5. Compared with MS 3Q forecast, the 8,192 total delivery beat (all models) could drive $600mm of incremental revenue and at least $200mm of incremental pretax, potentially making Tesla OP Positive on a GAAP basis for 3Q vs. our forecast of nearly $100mm US GAAP OP loss.
Of course that meant, recalculating the spreadsheet and adjusting their price target upwards to.... wait for it... $291
Unchanged! Laughable...
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