TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dondy]

The main point about NYT and other traditional news organizations is that they don't lie. But, they do print sources who lie. That is why they are supposed to check with multiple sources - but if those sources co-ordinate behind the scene, NYT will get it wrong.

Ofcourse, what they print depends on who they talk to. They select who they talk to - like all journalists - based on tips or contacts they already have. That is where the systemic errors creep in.

I hope you wrote the emphasized part as a joke. They do lie all the time. Some times it is "exaggeration" sometimes it is mentioning easily controlled lie (hero diver is best and obvious example, or "incidents" crap). Actually it's very difficult to find an article in any american or british MM which succeed to report accurate information.
Read about Gell-Mann amnesia effect.

 

[Mokuzai]

I never dream we can convert these deniers' mind, but the reality will change their behavior.

Maybe once this becomes more of a common sight. Took this from my dash cam yesterday morning.

 

[Lessmog]

I never dream we can convert these deniers' mind, but the reality will change their behavior. One day, when 90%+ of the cars are EV, most of the gas stations are gone. They have nowhere to add gas and will have severe range anxiety. Then they will have to buy an EV. It does not matter how they think.

They will be constrained by gas in their think-tank?

 

[bdy0627]

They are really trying to push the stock down below the $293ish support.

 

[SO16]

Majority of TSLA shorts are not here to profit from the TSLA SP down, they are here preventing it going up.
They prevented 5 GF being operational in 2018 already. They prevented 1M model 3 production in 2018 already.
Tesla shorts are not losing money, they are investing it into slowing Tesla.

You think Tesla is held back by lack of knowledge or lack of (giga) funds?
Try to imagine where Tesla would be today without massive attacks at the SP and all the smear campaign for the last 5 years.

You think they would still only had one factory to assemble cars and one factory to build cells if there were no shorting and smearing?
Think again.

Also forget about SP rise after q3 earnings, shorts do not lack funding. They will attack even harder.
The only way to stop this massive hold-down is to remove the shares available for shorting.
Though this wont happen as long as there is enough of stupid longs willing to take a miserable interest as their profit.

Buyback and kick them out.

I think the Tesla team is working as fast as humanly possible. Just hiring more people wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing. I’m no fan of shorts but I don’t think they have really held back Tesla that much. Tesla has grown tremendously fast as it is.

 

[beachbum77]

The other day I was dropping off my kid at her pre-school. One of the teachers asked me how I like my 3. She said they just ordered 3 and was giddy about it.

In terms of order book, the current list doesn't matter much. After 2 years, it is not probably firm anyway. Good thing is Tesla has a ton of things they can still do to increase demand if it was to fall below the production.

We all had our doubts about even Model S & X demand after the initial order book was exhausted. But we have seen years of increased sales with no advertising etc. This should be kept in mind when we talk about demand.

The other thing is the political environment for EVs can only get better from now on. Not just EVs, but solar as well.

I have to wonder whether the shorts & longs have a fundamental difference of opinion about the future of EVs - which is tied to whether one thinks climate change is real and needs to be addressed or not. If someone is a climate change denier, why would the person think EVs have a good future ?

I believe Mother Nature or Mother Earth is extremely resilient to whatever stupidity man can create and will exterminate us like bugs if we overdo things short of all-out nuclear war. Extinction Level Events have occurred before and the planet has always survived.

But I am firmly behind the movement away from ICE to zero emission alternatives to help keep us all healthy. But it is going to be a long, slow process. Look how long people have KNOWN cigarette smoking causes cancer and still keep on smoking. These are the people you expect to quit their ICE habits overnight? Yeah, uh huh

 

[brian45011]

Like a voting machine in the short term... weighing in the long. A quarter or two of profits, upgrades, and bond payments it should be back to a weighing machine at least for a while.

What would the weighers expect/accept for a PEG ratio?

 

[EVNow]

I hope you wrote the emphasized part as a joke. They do lie all the time. Some times it is "exaggeration" sometimes it is mentioning easily controlled lie (hero diver is best and obvious example, or "incidents" crap). Actually it's very difficult to find an article in any american or british MM which succeed to report accurate information.
Read about Gell-Mann amnesia effect.

Lie is when they are writing something they know is wrong. I suggest most of the inaccuracies are because of systemic errors and talking to the "wrong" sources. I'm sure that most journalists in NYT or WaPo actually believe what they write is accurate.

 

[shootformoon]

One thing concerns me, iirc tsla diverted some of the battery lines originally devoted to power pack/wall to model 3 to keep the production pace. But panasonic is only installing three more lines in GF1, presumably for model 3. Whey aren't they installing 2 more for power pack/wall?

 

[Remus]

This quarter with what is happening in China may cause a shift. But if you look at Note 15 in the latest 10-Q you will see the following breakdown of revenues by geographic location.
U.S. 56%
China 13%
Norway 5%
Others 26

I think the demand for higher margin (more expensive) Tesla cars will fall outside the U.S. as Karen mentioned in an earlier post. For true EV purists the U.S. does not have nearly as many vehicle options. The Renault ZOE and a host of Chinese models come to mind. Here in the U.S. a car with a range of 60-80 miles is practically worthless. My city, Jacksonville is 35 miles from one side to the other. I can put 100 miles easily on my car in a day just running errands between offices. However, when I have traveled to Europe and rented a car for sightseeing I can go for a few days on 100 Km. The U.S. is a very different market compared to the rest of the world with maybe Australia being the exception.

I have first hand experience with Chinese EVs and they are, to put it mildly, not a threat. No effective cooling, huge variation in cell quality, can't charge fast during a hot day... Of course with high tariff we can discount demand from China. But as you mentioned they still managed to increase S and X delivery globally despite of the trade war. So it's interesting to see where did they get that extra demand from.

A common complaint about Tesla from Europe is those cars are too big for their road. I think the demand from Europe will be higher than present portions just because model 3 is smaller. And limited charging infrastructure may somewhat negate the price advantage of short range EVs. With LR model 3 probably you only need to charge once per week.

And I don't think demand for high LR model 3 in NA is exhausted. Several of my friends and colleagues are still waiting for their cars. None of them were reservation holders.

At the same time there are production and delivery system improvement done in q3 that would improve their efficiency going forward.

Now I realized that is not a iron clad argument. I just found your estimate overly pessimistic. It's kind hard to believe q3 was their last chance.

 

[beachbum77]

They are really trying to push the stock down below the $293ish support.

If you are in for the long haul, stop watching the daily action. Go live your life and have fun while you can! This craziness will give you an ulcer otherwise. Come back and check the numbers once a month at the most. You will live years longer.

If you are an options trader like me on TSLA, Pepto helps! lol

 

[shootformoon]

They will be constrained by gas in their think-tank?

The real gas for these "think tank", the oil money, would be dwindled, i assume.

 

[AWDtsla]

Lie is when they are writing something they know is wrong. I suggest most of the inaccuracies are because of systemic errors and talking to the "wrong" sources. I'm sure that most journalists in NYT or WaPo actually believe what they write is accurate.

If you're not even trying check if it's a lie, you're not a journalist.

 

[dondy]

Lie is when they are writing something they know is wrong. I suggest most of the inaccuracies are because of systemic errors and talking to the "wrong" sources. I'm sure that most journalists in NYT or WaPo actually believe what they write is accurate.

if somebody is too lazy to check that "injuries reports" are false, if somebody is too lazy to make a simple phonecall and ask about relevance of a "15 min fame" individual to the rescue (simple people did and got all necessary info in 10 min, granted knowing tai).
A number of years ago Bloomberg I believe started to pay journalists for "moving stock". Now it is the norm everywhere.
The journalists don't believe what they write, and politicians don't believe what they say. They write or say the things they believe are useful for them.
Not for you.

 

[Open Interest]

If you are in for the long haul, stop watching the daily action. Go live your life and have fun while you can! This craziness will give you an ulcer otherwise. Come back and check the numbers one a month at the most. You will live years longer.

If you are an options trader like me on TSLA, Pepto helps! lol

Maybe people enjoy watching and discussing market action on the Market Action thread!

 

[beachbum77]

I have first hand experience with Chinese EVs and they are, to put it mildly, not a threat. No effective cooling, huge variation in cell quality, can't charge fast during a hot day... Of course with high tariff we can discount demand from China. But as you mentioned they still managed to increase S and X delivery globally despite of the trade war. So it's interesting to see where did they get that extra demand from.

A common complaint about Tesla from Europe is those cars are too big for their road. I think the demand from Europe will be higher than present portions just because model 3 is smaller. And limited charging infrastructure may somewhat negate the price advantage of short range EVs. With LR model 3 probably you only need to charge once per week.

And I don't think demand for high LR model 3 in NA is exhausted. Several of my friends and colleagues are still waiting for their cars. None of them were reservation holders.

At the same time there are production and delivery system improvement done in q3 that would improve their efficiency going forward.

Now I realized that is not a iron clad argument. I just found your estimate overly pessimistic. It's kind hard to believe q3 was their last chance.

I believe Q4 could be a repeat of 4Q2016. That year Q4 demand was pulled forward into Q3 as well to generate a profit. Tesla has the chance this time to expand their market for Model 3. But I do not see much improvement being possible for total production in the next three months. But we are currently guessing in the blind. Tesla has not updated any reservation numbers in over a year. Statements like "orders are increasing" are meaningless without context or reference points.

I believe Tesla has GREAT long term potential. But it has to survive the short term to get there.

 

[tander]

What would the weighers expect/accept for a PEG ratio?

If they are profitable, the scales wouldn't care that much about growth, at least at first.

 

[Chickenlittle]

You can call and use these cars for whatever purposes you want. They still represent an unrecovered cost to Tesla, will sit on the books as FGI, and represent unrealized profits.

Not entirely true demo and floor models will be sold at a discount in the future so will be recovered majority of cars represent these two categories
Done now don’t encourage shorts with conversation

 

[tinm]

Holy crap is gas really that expensive in LA right now?!

Maybe once this becomes more of a common sight. Took this from my dash cam yesterday morning.

View attachment 340399

 

[beachbum77]

Maybe people enjoy watching and discussing market action on the Market Action thread!

Enjoy?... Fine, but if you are a shareholder you need to get your own bottle of Pepto!