TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

You think it’s reasonable to argue that because some of the first Models Ss had drive unit or battery replacements that that somehow means the Model 3 doesn’t make sense as an Uber vehicle?!?!? That because one negligent Roadster owner needed to pay for a new battery and it was expensive that it’s not an economical decision to use a 3 for an Uber vehicle?!

He implied that Model 3s would need drive unit and battery replacements as soon as they ran out of warranty. Yes, he did. He’s always very clever leading people to connect dots that don’t in fact connect. Ignoring that Tesla has made continual improvements to drive units and batteries and has always stood behind their product.

He makes it appear he’s being reasonable and takes great care to measure his tone. Adds smiley faces to smooth his jabs.

Want to go crazy, fight crazy. My neighbor tells me tesla needs new battery after 100,000 miles and I say, no. Almost no degradation. Go to a dealer and they are selling like hot cakes. Most people don’t give a hoot about TMC and are as likely to base a car buy on beachbum666 as they are Biff Tannen or Jim Chanos. We don’t need 20 right fighters calling bullsheet every time firebird farts or beach boy boofs the Devil’s Triangle. You’ve been here too long to waste your time. Will he turn into myusername, probably, but kick=king dirt in his face isn’t going to win any converts or save any longs.

 

[Ugliest1]

I'm reminded of a quote. It goes something like... "statistics don't lie, but..." I forget the rest.

Are you referring to "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."? Note the descending order.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

After Hours: 253
at least a good sign for tomorrow
edit: 255 nice

 

[SpaceCash]

Why are we moving up rn

 

[omarsultan]

If Elon were to give his twitter account over to his brother Kimbal or just get rid of it all together, the stock would go up $30-50 tomorrow.

I understand the sentiment, but why? It is going to help the production ramp? Will TSLA reach profitability sooner? What impact is it going to have on the company fundamentals? How will it impact future cash flows? How does his tweeting specifically impact your investment thesis?

#askingForAFriend

 

[humbaba]

Are you referring to "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."? Note the descending order.

That is a good one as well. The one I was specifically referring to is "statistics don't lie, but statisticians do." But I was trying to be cute by leaving it open ended.

 

[gene]

Why are we moving up rn

Well...why not!?

 

[humbaba]

Why are we moving up rn

First, volume is negligible so it is very likely to swing wildly. Up now, down later.

Two, I called it

(earlier I made a comment about it not showing bottom by the end of the day and then moving in after hours)

 

[SpaceCash]

Want to go crazy, fight crazy. My neighbor tells me tesla needs new battery after 100,000 miles and I say, no. Almost no degradation. Go to a dealer and they are selling like hot cakes. Most people don’t give a hoot about TMC and are as likely to base a car buy on beachbum666 as they are Biff Tannen or Jim Chanos. We don’t need 20 right fighters calling bullsheet every time firebird farts or beach boy boofs the Devil’s Triangle. You’ve been here too long to waste your time. Will he turn into myusername, probably, but kick=king dirt in his face isn’t going to win any converts or save any longs.

Ok this is a hot post

 

[Krugerrand]

You seem to keep insisting on putting words in my mouth I never said. I never implied any such thing about the motors or battery packs. My point was if a failure should occur the car owner will be paying for it, not Tesla as in the case of Model S and X units that have unlimited mileage warranties.

If you feel a $50,000 Model 3 makes a good choice for full-time use as an Uber ride you are entitled to that opinion. My number crunching says otherwise once depreciation is factored in and loss of warranty is reached. The uncertainty of parts replacement costs is a huge overhang for anyone considering high mileage use of a Model 3. The prohibited use of the SC network for commercial operators limits the number of hours any Tesla could be operated per day.

So do your own math and prove me wrong. I have no problem admitting a mistake if you can prove I made one.

Nope. You just like to leave things unsaid after stringing a person along to come to the conclusion you want them to. Then if someone calls you on it, you change direction.

 

[Jayjs20]

Shorts are in full gloat-mode right now, and I think that's fine. You have to admit, we were in full gloat-mode when the price was 370+.

Just remember not to get too greedy, shorts, because we've seen this game multiple times this year already. This artificially low SP can't be sustained, given how well Tesla is doing right now.

 

[trailhound]

That individual reporting has been negative on Tesla for years and now Fox is trying to paint him as a objective reporter. It’s criminals running the high school A/V club. Pure theater.

Remember, Elon on Joe Rogan said he loves judges and I think he was previewing where this is going, so buckle up.

My boss is a right wing person and is constantly crowing to me about everything negative about Tesla that he hears in the media. His only media source is Fox News, by the way.

That is a good one as well. The one I was specifically referring to is "statistics don't lie, but statisticians do." But I was trying to be cute by leaving it open ended.

I always liked "figures lie and liars figure"

 

[AlexS]

Why are we moving up rn

Someone upgraded price target to 430

edit: UPDATE: Macquarie Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Outperform

 

[Unpilot]

Well I bought more at 250. Pretty sure that's it for me..I mean I'm about 50% over what I thought was all in. (If that makes any sense)

But if the sale continues much longer who knows.

 

[Nocturnal]

All you anti-Elon-Tweeting crowd are conveniently forgetting the many times his Tweets propelled the SP upwards.

Yes it has been difficult recently, yes Elon could be a little more careful, but he is what he is and has guided Tesla from a garage start-up to where we are today.

So have some perspective, FFS.

I'm not in that crowd myself.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well I bought more at 250. Pretty sure that's it for me..I mean I'm about 50% over what I thought was all in. (If that makes any sense)

But if the sale continues much longer who knows.

I squeezed a few more out at 250. Even if it drops much more I think I'm tapped. I'm probably in this stock 5x more than is prudent.

 

[SteveG3]

I always liked "figures lie and liars figure"

heard it as “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure”

ps just followed Maye Musk on twitter (Elon’s mom). as of a few days ago, she’s been going directly at the misinfo phenomena in Tesla media coverage. she’s had back and forths with a few writers. I figure our following her could be encouraging for her and her efforts. if anyone doesn’t know this, Maye already has an audience of her own as a working model among other things.

 

[humbaba]

heard it as “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure”

And for something near and dear to the hearts of certain posters here:

"If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."
-- w.c.-whatsisname

(just kidding, W.C. Fields was great)

 

[Off Shore]

Nope. You just like to leave things unsaid after stringing a person along to come to the conclusion you want them to. Then if someone calls you on it, you change direction.

@Krugerrand, I have some really primo catnip. If I give you some can I get access to your ignore list?

 

[Artful Dodger]

What do you think GF5 would make? Saudi's don't think the Battery story is settled technology wise (ie., 10 other chemistries in development world-wide). They said as much in the same feed.

No, I think it's a solar contract on the biggest scale with Tesla. That way they aren't locked into a battery technology, only capability and Tesla would own the migration to something better in the future. But face it, a GF is just a really BFF, so it could make cars and solar panels too. But I'm with you on the Saudi partnership, along with the date you mention.

I posted my original comments about GF5/KSA on TMC/MA18 on Sep 29 (here's a link with more discussion). I agree the Saudi focus will be solar PV but that's an incomplete solution without storage. So I think that they'll also buy battery cells from Samsung (S.Korea) through Tesla for its storage requirements.

GF5/KSA would be the logical place to build all those needed Powerwalls/Powerpacks, since you avoid much of the oceanic shipping (and delay) required for a logistics solutions that goes from S.Korea => Nevada => KSA.

During the Bloomberg interview, MbS was asked if he will buy an electric car. He replied "not today, but maybe tomorrow". So we should also expect in the future the Saudis would be open to local manufacture of Tesla vehicles.

But for the much anticipated Oct 18 announcement, I'm expected a KSA deal with Tesla to build solar PV and assemble powerwalls + powerpacks with commodity battery cells.

I furtherexpect the Saudi PIF will continue to accumulate equity in TSLA so they have virtual 'ownership of the means of production'. Since they are near the 5% equity threshold now, we may receive a public announcement of any increase. The Oct 18 'Innovations' conference seems like a logical place to announce their intentions.

Cheers!