TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RoadsterPlease]

It seems to me AMZN is way overvalued and TSLA is way undervalued when it comes to future potential.

Amazon will be the biggest company in 10 years, Tesla could be integrated as an ecologic logistics solution if the drones don't work out.
Bezos and Elon will rule as even kings over singularity.

 

[ggr]

Someone upgraded price target to 430

edit: UPDATE: Macquarie Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Outperform

For those who don't know, Macquarie is (I think) Australia's largest investment bank, and has a very significant international position too, particularly in infrastructure investment (airports, shipping terminals, energy of all kinds). It wouldn't surprise me to find that Maq is valuing Tesla significantly because of the energy side. I went looking for details of what they said about the ratings, but instead found this (from a few months ago):
Macquarie Taps Tesla Business Director to Lead Energy Tech Unit

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t see him giving up when SpaceX is basically a cash cow, worth in the vicinity of $30 billion. Borrowing a few billion against that value shouldn’t be a problem imo.

Yes, $30B valuation for SpaceX given revenue stream from current Falcon 9 launch orders. But add another $40B for Starlink, which is the (heavily-discounted) PV of its future revenue stream. Broadband to the entire world at gigabit speed... hmm, that's gatta be worth somethin' wot?

Cheers!

 

[Intl Professor]

It would be interesting to see somebody add up all the "losses" that misuse of Twitter has caused over the years. Has to be in the many billions.

Establishing cause and effect is difficult; in markets, near impossible. Logic and markets are different categories.

 

[Thekiwi]

Bought TSLA a couple of months ago @280. Went up right away. Now down. In the long run is is just a blip. The fact is that everyone is looking at Tesla through a microscope. When Elon burps then the market swings big time. I think that even SEC follows Tesla through a microscope. That whole SEC thing is a nothing burger and I would love to see a an independent judge rule on that. The only thing Musk did wrong is not follow NASDAQ rules and inform them ahead of time that tweet was coming.
SEC would have a hard time proving ill intend. On contrary, SEC has caused more harm to investors than Musk's tweets.

I disagree with this. TSLA was trading at $360 before Elon’s take private tweet. Every actual negative event since then has been due to that tweet and here we are now over $110 / 30% lower. Everything involving the SEC investigation, rejection of settlement, lawsuit filing, settlement agreement, and subsequent anti-SEC tweets would not have happened without that initial take private tweet.

Aside from the take private tweet - the only fundamental news we have had since earnings was good news (Q3 delivery letter).

 

[Krugerrand]

To add to it, my friend ;-)

Zero. I have zero on my ignore list. That’s bad, huh?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nice. Also, ironic. Macquarie owns large chunks of the Colstrip Plant in Montana (and 100% of the local utility on my other island).

Macquarie, like most banks, invests to make money. However they are more focused in green investment. They recently purchased the Green Investment Group from the UK government and own significant solar and wind resources around the world. Source: I worked there for 5 years.

 

[Nocturnal]

There is so much fear in this forum when we should believe in the fundamentals.
As soon as people feel that $TSLA is undervalued for the first time in 3 years, the buyers will be back. For a gigantic showdown with the shorts.
As I have learned today, the big banks operate on both sides at the same time, short and long, maybe it's time for them to make up their minds about where is rocketship is headed.

Fundamentals are way better than they were a year ago. I agree, that is the important bit. All this SEC and private crap did not change a single thing about the company. Since then it's been solid news. A popular kill with loyal buyers and a perfect safety rating.

As for the fear, it's hard to sit on a lot of money and not have those feelings. I take solace in the fact that the long term upside (several years) is far larger than the short term downside (even if I wind up cashing out at a 50% loss, which is very unlikely).

 

[Unpilot]

Intuition has failed me more that once (election 2016) ....but with Twitter it is hard to see how it is positive. Whenever I dip my toe into any subject matter on Twitter it seems I am met with a tsunami of crap. Sure there are a few gems..but they are washed over by trash pretty fast.

Of course YMMV

 

[humbaba]

Intuition has failed me more that once (election 2016) ....but with Twitter it is hard to see how it is positive. Whenever I dip my toe into any subject matter on Twitter it seems I am met with a tsunami of crap. Sure there are a few gems..but they are washed over by trash pretty fast.

Of course YMMV

I dislike Twitter, though I don't find it abhorrent like FaceBook. Perhaps that's why I have a twitter account. And that is why last night I just happened to discover the west coast launch at T-2.5minutes. Watching that made my evening.

I think the mileage from twitter is much like email or the internet in general (or even this board ): you need a very effective filter system because so much of it is garbage (less so with the board, but still...). But with sufficient filtering it becomes useful and a positive force.

 

[Mobius484]

I reactivated my twitter account, only social media link I have in order to support what maye musk is doing. Go clean technica. Check it out.... hopefully we can get a little more truth in the media out there

 

[elasalle]

For those who don't know, Macquarie is (I think) Australia's largest investment bank, and has a very significant international position too, particularly in infrastructure investment (airports, shipping terminals, energy of all kinds). It wouldn't surprise me to find that Maq is valuing Tesla significantly because of the energy side. I went looking for details of what they said about the ratings, but instead found this (from a few months ago):
Macquarie Taps Tesla Business Director to Lead Energy Tech Unit

Departures from Tesla though looking bad short term can actually be good long term. If these guys leave with good goodwill towards their previous employer, they might open up new channels for Tesla in the future. ..

Macquarie might be one place where it can happen ...

 

[AlexS]

So today came the first upgrade, now we need tesla to put out the date of the earnings, then we need tesla to beat expectations, the other upgrades will follow. But If there will be no profit in Q3 then, it will be disaster for us and downgrades.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Beyond twitter, there has to be share price impact from production still projected to average below 5K...I believe Bloomberg is only showing 4.2K right now.

Thoughts?

Telsa guided production between 3850-4250 Model 3s per week for Q3.

Bloomberg reporting is more FUD-based than guidance-based. So there's that.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Telsa guided production between 3850-4250 Model 3s per week for Q3.

Bloomberg reporting is more FUD-based than guidance-based. So there's that.

I have to agree. Just before the numbers came out Bloomberg tracker was at 1829 per week and falling a 100 or so every second day. They corrected to 4100 ish per week but they are still only showing. The to date count already seems out of whack. What good is a tracker if it is out by more than 300 percent. Really?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I disagree with this. TSLA was trading at $360 before Elon’s take private tweet. Every actual negative event since then has been due to that tweet and here we are now over $110 / 30% lower. Everything involving the SEC investigation, rejection of settlement, lawsuit filing, settlement agreement, and subsequent anti-SEC tweets would not have happened without that initial take private tweet.

Aside from the take private tweet - the only fundamental news we have had since earnings was good news (Q3 delivery letter).

There is no way you can tell that the drop from 360 was caused by Elons tweets. We saw a big jump after Q2, but that positive sentiment had already started to wane under FUD attacks until the Saudi news came out and we reached 360. Without the taking private tweet we would have probably also had a slow decline since then. Too much FUD and shortselling, also when Elon is not tweeting.

 

[Gavyne]

For those who don't know, Macquarie is (I think) Australia's largest investment bank, and has a very significant international position too, particularly in infrastructure investment (airports, shipping terminals, energy of all kinds). It wouldn't surprise me to find that Maq is valuing Tesla significantly because of the energy side. I went looking for details of what they said about the ratings, but instead found this (from a few months ago):
Macquarie Taps Tesla Business Director to Lead Energy Tech Unit

Wow so all this time, when people thought Tesla was losing execs left & right, they were actually being planted. That's some multi-dimensional 4D chess going on there

 

[NikeWings]

All you anti-Elon-Tweeting crowd are conveniently forgetting the many times his Tweets propelled the SP upwards.

Yes it has been difficult recently, yes Elon could be a little more careful, but he is what he is and has guided Tesla from a garage start-up to where we are today.

So have some perspective, FFS.

OK, Lycanthrope here's mine......I love his engagement with 22MM people - its like no other CEO and I want him visibly tweeting, communicating, interacting and providing access to the top dog. But, I also want his tweets (during interim reporting periods) to be curtailed to the technical, innovative, inquisitive, contemplative, philosophical, provocative, musical, humorous and on and on and on. Nothing correlated to potential financial performance. Strategic and tactical darkness will reek utter havoc among the resistance. Every 90 days, he can strike like lightening with his numbers. Then back to creating, designing, engineering and producing for 89 days.

He is brilliant, fascinating & accessible to 22MM which combined is the mother of all moats for driving massive transformation. Active engagement can crush archaic thinking, oil-fed undercurents, advertising budgets and FUDsters. I vote to #PromotetheMoat.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

 

[SpaceCash]

I have to agree. Just before the numbers came out Bloomberg tracker was at 1829 per week and falling a 100 or so every second day. They corrected to 4100 ish per week but they are still only showing. The to date count already seems out of whack. What good is a tracker if it is out by more than 300 percent. Really?

I mean... it wasn't meant to be accurate. It served an ulterior purpose.

 

[KarenRei]

Mod Mode

Racial pride without denigration of others is ok but risky. An advice. Don't touch it. Categorization of any collection of humanity in a pejorative way is racism and has no place in civil society. If you disagree with the latter, please let it be known. I shall report to those who know how to ban as we aim to encourage civility here. Not an idle threat. I've already said the bottom line for me is any personal attack. How much more vile is a collective one? Civility is a matter of growing up.

What if I think that all humans are inferior scum that deserve to be rounded up by my species' destructor fleet and forced to work in our offworld spice mines?