TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

Found some coins in the cushions so will ad a few shares today.

 

[Fact Checking]

"Phased Arrays" isn't really an appropriate substitution there. Phased arrays have been effectively perfected; even the radar in your Tesla uses a phased array antenna. Even a single array generating multiple beams isn't revolutionary. What's new is the concept of a super-massive LEO constellation maintaining numerous high frequency spot beams for high bandwidth relaying of end-user traffic to internet backbones.

While I agree that "revolutionary" should be used sparingly, Starlink is a whole new level of difficult:

• LEO satellites are flying with velocities of 7.8 km/sec, which creates a heck of a Doppler shift as the satellites are flying towards and away from the receiver.
• The frequency bands are comparably sparse, with thousands of satellites and Doppler shift the system has to manage frequency allocations dynamically and with high robustness.
• The satellites are going to communicate with each other using laser links - which again has only been done in research satellites, not in a commercial setting.

So about a dozen of "never done before" applications of barely commercialized bleeding edge research technologies.

All of that on a grand scale: more than twice the satellites ever launched by all nations combined.

While I agree that probably none of the components are revolutionary breakthroughs of new technologies (that we know of), the scale and the almost unbelievably low costs (enabled by a reusable launch system) are raising the Starlink constellation itself to a "breakthrough, revolutionary" level.

(Barely relevant to Market Action though: if Starlink succeeds then Elon might be able to buy out Tesla with a fraction of his SpaceX stake. )

 

[erha]

I bought on margin for the first time on Friday. Only 10% of my Tesla stocks on margin, so going easy. These prices are just crazy low atm. The only thing that's making me not max out my margin is that the market seems a bit shaky

 

[LST]

NASDAQ and SEC is warning about similar schemes, we could call it the "mini-tender offer scheme": the scheme is apparently done both for heavily shorted and for highly volatile stocks.

Investors who agree to the terms effectively agree to selling their shares way below fair market prices.

See:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

You should probably ask your bank why they accepted money from them to relay you a message that carries a very high risk of severe financial harm, and whether they are aware of the SEC and NASDAQ warnings regarding this firm.

If my bank did this I'd be *sugar* upset with them: they are supposed to protect my money ...

Thx for the input, yes I am quite upset and told them so, waiting for an answer. I do not expect an honest answer, it will be the usual hiding behind the small print etc.

 

[cheshire cat]

Thx for the input, yes I am quite upset and told them so, waiting for an answer. I do not expect an honest answer, it will be the usual hiding behind the small print etc.

Do keep us all updated, cheers for now.

 

[Tslynk67]

I bought on margin for the first time on Friday. Only 10% of my Tesla stocks on margin, so going easy. These prices are just crazy low atm. The only thing that's making me not max out my margin is that the market seems a bit shaky

It's so tempting, but I won't do it, I'll just stick to my all-cash position, too many things that happen without warning:
- crazy tweets
- judge decides SEC was too lenient...
- Model 3 catches-fire without reason
- <insert random event here>

It already gives me chronic stress as it is! I'll be much more relaxed once we're up above 351 again...

 

[LST]

Do keep us all updated, cheers for now.

will do

 

[Zaxxon]

Volvo won't offer its upcoming T6 PHEV line in the US. Unsurprising news is unsurprising. They will continue to offer the T8.

From the piece:
Volvo expects plug-in hybrids to account for a "quarter of our [worldwide] sales ... within the next two years," according to the company's president and CEO, Håkan Samuelsson. Currently, the T8 Twin Engine makes up about 15 percent of all Volvo sales.

 

[KarenRei]

Latest CleanTechnica #Pravduh analysis of media coverage of Tesla:

Tesla Wins In Safety & Sales, Yet Headlines Mostly Negative — #Pravduh Report 6 | CleanTechnica

The fraction of negative coverage was significantly down last week (even falling below neutral coverage for the first time). Although it's IMHO interesting to note how changes in negative coverage correspond to overall coverage; negative coverage is the dominant factor in determining total coverage. One IMHO reasonable interpretation would be that people predisposed to write negatively about Tesla don't switch to writing positively when news about the company is good - they simply stop writing.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla has grown to 45,000 employees despite laying off ~4,000 people earlier this year

Shorts still think Tesla has been laying off employees. They’re in for a huge suprise.

 

[HG Wells]

Tesla has grown to 45,000 employees despite laying off ~4,000 people earlier this year

Shorts still think Tesla has been laying off employees. They’re in for a huge suprise.

But are these employees being paid ?
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[NikeWings]

Recent 13F action......cmon in fellas.

 

[sundaymorning]

One way I attempt to assess how Tesla feels about their cash position is tracking progress with the supercharger network. Superchargers are important to Tesla's long-term strategy, but in the short term Tesla can ramp up or down spending on them based on how much money needs to be directed to more pressing priorities. First comes permits; then construction lags permits; then open superchargers lags construction. The main spending comes during construction and leading up to opening.

It's possible there might be some more supercharger updates "today", but I need to go to bed, so I'm going to call this good enough.

View attachment 343931

Notes: The graph is stacked. Supercharger closures (relatively uncommon) are subtracted from openings. Note the subtitle on the above graph: there's three ticks for each quarter, and they show different periods in the quarter (nonlinear). You'll note that usually the third tick - the last two weeks of the quarter - sees a big uptick in superchargers opening.

Note the huge upsurge in permits, construction and openings that happened during the optimistic days of Q3 2017 before "production hell" turned out to be more apt than expected. This was followed by a general downward trend. Q3 2018 started with the completion of a lot of work from Q2 finishing but relatively little new after that.

The interesting aspect to direct one's attention to is the number of permit applications so far in the first two weeks of Q4 2018. Its huge - 5,5 per week, 11 total. The only examined timeperiod that exceeded this was the last two weeks of Q3 2017, at 6,5 permits per week. From all appearances, Tesla is getting ready to have a significant expansion in their Supercharger buildout this quarter. This in turn argues for Tesla considering itself as having a strong cash position; if they felt they would be cutting it close on profit in Q4, one wouldn't expect such a large expansion in permit applications.

Could this just be noise? Coincidence? Certainly. And for that reason, I plan to - as always - keep an eye on how progress on the Supercharger network continues. But for now, signs are very promising for Q4.

Good point. When Fisker was having cash issues they were closing their stores rapidly. Tesla has been expanding its fleet of super chargers, showrooms, Shanghai GF land auction, working force of up to 45,000 employees, etc. With Panasonic wanting to install another 3 lines at the GF I see demand as well as production increasing. Here’s proof to your supercharger theory.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Tesla has opened a 50 charging stall in Hong Kong.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Low volume pre-market pojama trading, ~31K shares. Spikey too.

 

[Tslynk67]

But are these employees being paid ?
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

I thought they were all volunteers...?

 

[KarenRei]

Trading in positive territory, at least for the time being

(Still got some buy points set in the $240s )

 

[Buddyroe]

Good point. When Fisker was having cash issues they were closing their stores rapidly. Tesla has been expanding its fleet of super chargers, showrooms, Shanghai GF land auction, working force of up to 45,000 employees, etc. With Panasonic wanting to install another 3 lines at the GF I see demand as well as production increasing. Here’s proof to your supercharger theory.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Tesla has opened a 50 charging stall in Hong Kong.

Well, Tesla did bring construction starts to a near halt in the 3rd quarter. But we all know why that was. I figured they'd do the same in the 4th quarter, but surprisingly, construction starts are on the rise.

I personally HATE it when Tesla slows down, even temporarily, on the supercharger build out. It's such a small part of their expenses, but such an advantage. As an Tesla owner who LOVES to take day and weekend trips (more so since I got a Tesla), I know that Tesla can't possibly have too many superchargers. I'll be glad when all major routes are covered at the minimum to do those routes, and then the "filling in" begins - superchargers that make planning ahead less necessary, and also make rural travel much easier. I'm dying for the day I can pull into a gas station in Waycross, GA with 2 supercharger stalls and charge for 10 or 15 mins just to give me a nice buffer to finish my trip home. I'm using that town as an example because I passed through there Saturday night otw home, and my estimated battery capacity upon arriving home was 5% - not comforting. And I sure didn't want to take Tesla's recommended route and drive 40 mins out of the way to hit a supercharger (40 there and 40 back = 1 hour 20 min added to the trip). So I slowed WAY down to save as much as I could.
Oh, and these don't have to be Tesla provided superchargers. I'm hoping that with so many 3's hitting the road, some of the major gas stations will see a money making opportunity in installing a couple of superchargers. Heck, I don't mind paying a premium for a charge - I just want to have the option (and lots of them). I want charging (or where to charge) to be an afterthought similar to getting gas.

Basically, what I'm saying is, "when you're winning the race, and have your foot on your competitor's throat, don't let up and give them a chance to catch up."

 

[Heimdallr]

Trading in positive territory, at least for the time being

(Still got some buy points set in the $240s )

Which stock are you looking at? TSLA is down and my buy at $256.00 got triggered so it can't be in positive territory. Was down in after-hours and pre-hours as well.

 

[KarenRei]

Which stock are you looking at? TSLA is down and my buy at $256.00 got triggered so it can't be in positive territory. Was down in after-hours and pre-hours as well.

Obviously, any post one makes becomes immediately invalidated as time passes. But there was a short period where the stock was up, right around the open. Previous close was 258.78, open was 259.06, daily high was 259.65.

 

[Todd Burch]

<s>Wow! A straight line down at open!

Yet again I'm shocked!</s>