WentOffGrid
Member
They have had their moments of glory through FUD and have celebrated. Not a sustainable celebration however.
Now it's our turn to celebrate, and it will be sustainable in more way than one.
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They have had their moments of glory through FUD and have celebrated. Not a sustainable celebration however.
Now it's our turn to celebrate, and it will be sustainable in more way than one.
hacer
Active Member
You get to roll the loss into the new cost basis, so you aren't really "eating" the loss, just kicking the can down the road which is fair.
Perfectly articulated!
And you were one of those steadying influences Avoigt. I owe you, Fact Checking, Neroden, Papafox and many others here a debt of gratitude. I have previously posted the classic "Braveheart" scene where the English Heavy Cavalry thunders down upon the Scottish rebels as William Wallace implores them to "HOLD!" It is a perfect metaphor for how I felt about my 1000+ shares as the forces arrayed against Elon Musk and Tesla mounted a full-blown assault over the past year. The collective wisdom of this board allowed me to hold that line in the face of what appeared to be certain defeat and the destruction of a considerable percentage of my net worth.
Cheers to the Longs!
And you were one of those steadying influences Avoigt. I owe you, Fact Checking, Neroden, Papafox and many others here a debt of gratitude. I have previously posted the classic "Braveheart" scene where the English Heavy Cavalry thunders down upon the Scottish rebels as William Wallace implores them to "HOLD!" It is a perfect metaphor for how I felt about my 1000+ shares as the forces arrayed against Elon Musk and Tesla mounted a full-blown assault over the past year. The collective wisdom of this board allowed me to hold that line in the face of what appeared to be certain defeat and the destruction of a considerable percentage of my net worth.
Cheers to the Longs!
Here's the transcript on M3 estimated demand:
Elon Musk
It's hard to predict with accuracy. The - and there is also, like with all the tariff wars and everything. So long term, like you say, like we’re not talking about like next quarter, so like what is- likely global demand for Model 3. It's probably in the order of anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million cars a year, let's say, quick global demand for Model 3.
If we're talking like, they have the 3 series, that's around 0.5 million. The BMW 3 series is about 0.5 million units a year globally. And generally, we find that we outcompete the BMW 3 series quite well. So it seems like logical therefore that we will long-term have a higher production - higher demand. Maybe it's somewhere between the kind of the BMW 3 series and the Volkswagen Golf, which about a 1 million units a year. So, yeah, that's anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million units a year long term.
Elon Musk
It's hard to predict with accuracy. The - and there is also, like with all the tariff wars and everything. So long term, like you say, like we’re not talking about like next quarter, so like what is- likely global demand for Model 3. It's probably in the order of anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million cars a year, let's say, quick global demand for Model 3.
If we're talking like, they have the 3 series, that's around 0.5 million. The BMW 3 series is about 0.5 million units a year globally. And generally, we find that we outcompete the BMW 3 series quite well. So it seems like logical therefore that we will long-term have a higher production - higher demand. Maybe it's somewhere between the kind of the BMW 3 series and the Volkswagen Golf, which about a 1 million units a year. So, yeah, that's anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million units a year long term.
One month ago we were at 116k, now at 170k: 54k registrations in a month!
Anstandswauwau
Member
Right. I have, there are three in my town. You don't know what to do when you encounter one, do you?
I do, because it's actually documented. And prescribed by law. A "thanks for good driving" prize to the first other person on this board who knows what it is. (Betcha nobody in Tesla's self-driving team knows.) You're gonna laugh when you find out.
It wasn't anything I didn't already know and it wasn't relevant. But I'll repeat myself for those, like you, who haven't gotten the point yet.
It is simply not useful to make an "average driver" car. Psychologically, people won't accept it: we have documentation that people will demand that an autonomous car be *substantially better* than an average driver; for some reason people are way more unhappy if hurt by a mediocre-competence robot than by a mediocre-competence human. Musk knows this, and has quoted a need to be 10 times better and 100 times better at various times. You will not get this by replicating average. It may reduce crashes if deployed as "enhanced driver assistance" (people will accept it if there's a driver to blame) but it will never be allowed as "full self driving".
What I liked about the letter and the call is that they have become more conservative and prudent and even a bit secretive in their guidance (for finances and production). Elon even said ‘long term’ several times.
That leaves room for more positive surprises in future quarters. I hope they stick to this prudency.
That leaves room for more positive surprises in future quarters. I hope they stick to this prudency.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Wowsers. Link to twitter src:
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 13,629 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 169791.
Actually, because there are economies of scale in the business (duhhh) it's better than that: doubling production gets us to a much higher price than that at a P/E of 20x
Subheadline: "Under the hood: heavy debt, supplier IOUs and dwindling cash"
The sub-headline contains three parts: the first is true but irrelevant given their free cash flow; the second applies to literally every company (that's what accounts payable is), and the third is a flat-out lie. A FCF of nearly a billion dollars can in no way, shape or form be called "dwindling cash". That's a literal contradiction to the word "dwindling".
If you scroll down, what they're actually saying is, if we pretend that Tesla is forced to pay all of its 2019 debt today, and if every customer cancels today, why, then in this contrived scenario they'd be in a low cash position! They might as well have thrown a Godzilla attack into their scenario.
Did anyone notice the part where I said that once they start trying to solve the right *problem*, it'll go quickly?
So many cute little lemurs!
They really were not able to predict margins because they didn't know the M3 product mix people would actually order. But once again, with the model 3, they found a surprising number of people wanting the premium version.
This phenomenon of Tesla buyers purchasing premium product has to have auto analysts confused. So much car buying historically has been predictable by groups of price points.
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Xenius
Active Member
Tesla just can't be judged by normal car metrics, they are so much more than that. The fact that even the hard core fans here only ever focus on the vehicles themselves is an indicator of the loaded gun they have.
Also take note of the fact that 50% of trade ins were < 35k new. That's me to a Tesla "T". I didn't trade in to Tesla, but my previous car was 22k new. We've now sold my wife's ailing Subaru Forester (maybe 29k new? not sure) and are using my dads 20k 2007 civic that HE stopped using when he got his 60k model 3.
As much as i HATE when people say Tesla = Apple, in this case, yes, they are iPhoning the ever living **** out of the auto industry. And instead of rising the the challenge, the incumbents are pissing into the wind in an effort to turn it back.
Also take note of the fact that 50% of trade ins were < 35k new. That's me to a Tesla "T". I didn't trade in to Tesla, but my previous car was 22k new. We've now sold my wife's ailing Subaru Forester (maybe 29k new? not sure) and are using my dads 20k 2007 civic that HE stopped using when he got his 60k model 3.
As much as i HATE when people say Tesla = Apple, in this case, yes, they are iPhoning the ever living **** out of the auto industry. And instead of rising the the challenge, the incumbents are pissing into the wind in an effort to turn it back.
So, I actually agree with all of these tech claims?
Don't say you disagree with me when you give a list of things I agree on!
I just think it's irrelevant to the question of when we'll get full self driving, because they're not looking at the problem of how to teach the neural network to drive. Teaching it to recognize objects is all very well, but it still has to learn how to drive. When Tesla starts working on that, *then* I'll get optimistic.
(This is actually the typical way problems develop for Tesla. Tesla's biggest problems, such as poor communications and lack of service centers, are only hard because management was persistently unable/unwilling to recognize that they were issues. The moment management figures out what they need to do, the problems will start getting solved. Just as the Service Centers willl hopefully start getting built now that Musk has noticed the deficiency on the map -- but the problem was building up for five years because they didn't know there was a problem and weren't working on it.)
I think the evidence shows that Cruise is farthest ahead in the conceputal problem of figuring out *how to teach a neural network to drive well*, even if they have a worse neural network. Everyone else is a joke. though.
It's odd how few people consider what adding production of 200,000 units/year in an existing factory does for the bottom line. The "Tesla looses money on every car" thesis was really weird.
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