So you weren't agreeing with me, you were just responding with a non-sequiteur. That's not exactly better. You don't respond to someone in order to talk to some third party.
People do it all the time. Now put your nose back into its joint, it’s not personal so stop trying to make it so.
Back to what I was actually writing. We've never seen any indication that stamping at Fremont can't handle its 10k/wk design spec. So if vehicle production at Fremont is at 7k/wk due to GA/paint limitations, then they can produce 3k parts for an extra per week. These can be routed to GF3, either raw or in the form of BIWs.
And you have no indication that they can produce 3k parts for an extra per week because it’s NOT 3k. It’s 3k of EVERY body panel they make for that vehicle. That’s 33,000 for an 11 body panel vehicle.
That requires revamping of production scheduling, maintenance scheduling, die repair and maintenance, additional racking etc., etc...
We’ve done maths here before and it’s actually unclear what capacity stamping has at Fremont. There is no ‘designed spec’ information available.
They have only two press lines big enough to do most of the body panels and they’re doing 3 different sets of body panels. One press line is old and slower, the other specifically designed for Model 3 die sets (though I’d expect they could retrofit some of the S and X die sets into it). A third, smaller press line might be doing one or two panels or it might be doing other parts. We have no way of knowing.
We also have no idea what their efficiency rates are, if all of M3 die sets are in the new press line or just most, or if they’re running other body panels in there for S or X, or if they’re making other parts (ie., I think I remember mention that they also make the battery casings which would require a large press line to make) and a thousand other questions.
We agree with the fact that it's unlikely that Tesla is going to acquire a new press line and dies and have them churning out parts by Q4 2019, unless this was started previously. I'm pointing out that unless something has changed at Fremont, there's no need for GF3 to have its own press line by Q4 2019.
Yes and no. But not worth quibbling about our differences on the subject.
GF3 can start producing vehicles - albeit by robbing production at Fremont - as soon as they have nothing more than a GA line and its supporting infrastructure. Add in a paint shop and it should be able to produce 3k/wk without hindering Fremont production. Getting this done by the end of Q4 2019 appears quite plausible.
Meh. I think it’s more logical to make sure battery line gets put in and up and running first, ahead of everything else and send otherwise completed bodies there to have their batteries added.
If they decide to and can instead also paint and GA there, so be it. Awesome. But I wouldn’t take that bet in the time frame given.