TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

So just to give some sort of visual context to the Tesla Pickup Truck teaser from Elon, here's how Blade Runner style cars look like:


Of course as a proper pickup truck and without the cooling grille.

That's not Blade Runner, that's Blade Runner 2049. Not a terrible sequel, but ... not really in line with Blade Runner's style.

Of course, we don't know if he meant the original or the sequel ...

 

[humbaba]

Just curious, is anybody doing stuff like this here? (see image)

View attachment 349277

Not in this thread, we get off topic a lot, but not full-on geeked out on neural nets...

edit: woops, I shoulda looked closer at your graph. got me there!

 

[jesselivenomore]

From 10Q, couple of important datapoints:
1. Tesla made $137M from non-ZEV regulatory credits (non-disclosed in shareholder letter) in addition to $52 ZEV ones (disclosed)
2. There are over $115M or more (10%+) in accounts receivables owed by one single party. Bears think rental agency sale, or large supplier discount (Panasonic?)
3. Tesla confirms that it has received SEC subpoena about M3 production numbers (new info) in addition to Musk communication (old info)

Bears are being, uhhh, frantic??!! Some are likely to have heart attack by the end of night, in disbelief that Tesla is getting away with this

Now, anyone can disagree as much as one wants, but I can see how shareholder letter comes off as non-genuine and (somewhat?) misleading now. This is what I've mentioned in the past - technically correct, yet misleading. I'd prefer Tesla stopped these practices, but I'm grateful they've let me deleverage and I don't care a whole lot anyhow. They've done their fair share of poor communication in both directions. My thesis is long and slow born, and they're moving in the right direction, that's all that matters (when I'm not leveraged!)

Market doesn't seem to care either.
Or, maybe TSLA would've been $350+ without this?

I believe the reason why ghg/cafe credits aren't broken out, just like they haven't been in prior quarters, is because they scale with deliveries and are part of a long term contract. So that should be viewed as normal part of business, as opposed to Zev credits which fluctuate quarter to quarter depending on demand for them(or Tesla's discretion) and really have nothing to do with Tesla's core business.

 

[Remus]

Kara has known Elon for a long time. She has said in multiple occasions that she thinks Elon is one of the very few people who are actually change the world, unlike many silicone valley billionaires that are just talking.

I found her questions critical but fair, albeit a little rushed trying to cover a wide variety of topics.

You can not expect Elon to always stay within the circle of uber Tesla fans.

@Foghat - right on
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher
just ad saleswomen - pathetic - regret I bothered to listen
condescending - so tired of her yes, so, right, etc... like she understands EVERYTHING Elon says while she obviously isn't even listening. [Elon couldn't even explain solar city roof tiles to her. pathetic]

[got to love her opening - "no smoking zone, put out the weed and listen" - just an ad selling narcissist working Recode Decode- I'll never bother to listen to this women again.
[got to love that company name - Madison Avenue at its best]

At least Joe Rogan tried to listen and tried to understand what Elon was saying.

 

[Fact Checking]

So bear trap or something else? What's the hard-to-barrow fee lately?

I didn't write what you quoted me saying...

 

[SpaceCash]

I didn't write what you quoted me saying...

shocking...

 

[Cartegena]

It's a shame that the shorts have forced Tesla to slow down their CAPEX.

Can you elaborate? How to "not investors" force any company to do anything?

 

[SpaceCash]

How do you know that?

I said imho. Opinion. But When would they have sold? They wouldn't have been willing to take a loss. And they seem to have a much bigger scheme going on here. I just severely doubt they sold, probably increased stake if anything. There was an interview going around a week or so back with one of them and it was very bullish re Tesla. They love Teslas

 

[SW2Fiddler]

(You can probably guess which one I think it is.)

Right.

She also suffers from a tendency

Mm-hmm

too many podcast hosts exhibit:

Right!

constantly interrupting.

Right.

So...

 

[SpaceCash]

Can you elaborate? How to "not investors" force any company to do anything?

One way would be suppressing stock price by various means to make a capital raise more dilutive than it otherwise would be, thereby slowing/prohibiting massively juiced-up expansion

 

[printf42]

My favorite quote from the recode interview is:
“the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.”
Who else here thinks a VW-style short squeeze would be entertaining?

 

[Brando]

Kara has known Elon for a long time. She has said in multiple occasions that she thinks Elon is one of the very few people who are actually change the world, unlike many silicone valley billionaires that are just talking.

I found her questions critical but fair, albeit a little rushed trying to cover a wide variety of topics.

You can not expect Elon to always stay within the circle of uber Tesla fans.

"critical but fair albeit a little rushed" - really? about what? the media/reporter circus?

I never said ANYTHING about what Elon said in my comment. Only about how Kara never seemed to have understood most anything Elon was trying to explain - Kara did condescending agree at every pause - interrupting Elon constantly. pathetic interview IMHO.

 

[brian45011]

I didn't write what you quoted me saying...

I apologize for the mis-attribution.

 

[Johan]

I think there might be some misunderstanding on your part. She was asking why, despite of all these pain, why he does what he does. That is giving an opportunity for Elon to reiterate the mission statement of Tesla, showing how important Tesla is to the world, and how important Elon is to the world.

I think you misunderstood me

He did clearly state the basic reason for doing any of what he does very clearly. What she was obviously (or maybe I'm wrong to think it was obvious?) insinuating with the way she was asking her question and the way she was wording it was that in the past year he should have done things differently than he in fact did. The word I'm looking for is "framing". Her framing gave him limited space to answer within but he would have none of it (wouldn't have expected anything other from Elon). But it made for a pretty obnoxious interview.

 

[Ellec]

My favorite quote from the recode interview is:
“the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.”
Who else here thinks a VW-style short squeeze would be entertaining?

If price pops suddenly above the ATH by way of some unexpected positive news, then panic covering by over leaveraged shorts will propel the price higher. This will then cause panic covering shorts competing with new inflows of longs. A short squeeze is inevitable now.

The only unknown is how unorderly the unwind is.

My guess is a violent move above 600 before settling to a new 450-600 range

 

[dmckinstry]

If someone can edit the recording to only keep Elon's talk, that would be great. I feel every time Elon gets into something interesting, she interrupts. I want to hear Elon talk about the details. Let him finish. I hope the future interviewers learn this, you don't have to go through all your questions, let Elon calmly finish his thought. This is not your normal talkshow where people look for entertainment. In Elon's interview, we want to hear the real content, the details.

We need a panel to find a few good candidates so in the future Elon can do interviews with those people.

I'll vote for Curt.

 

[SpaceCash]

If price pops suddenly above the ATH by way of some unexpected positive news, then panic covering by over leaveraged shorts will propel the price higher. This will then cause panic covering shorts competing with new inflows of longs. A short squeeze is inevitable now.

The only unknown is how unorderly the unwind is.

My guess is a violent move above 600 before settling to a new 450-600 range

I been saying it's inevitable. It's so inevitable that I can calmly resist the urge to say so in all caps nowadays. Da ting go SKRRRRTT

 

[brian45011]

From 10Q, couple of important datapoints:
1. Tesla made $137M from non-ZEV regulatory credits (non-disclosed in shareholder letter) in addition to $52 ZEV ones (disclosed)
2. There are over $115M or more (10%+) in accounts receivables owed by one single party. Bears think rental agency sale, or large supplier discount (Panasonic?)

So could it be one of the regulatory credit buyers who could have purchases ZEV, GHG and CAFE credits?

 

[Bet TSLA]

I sold my last remaining J19 $390 LEAP and put the money back into stock.

Why not trade it for selling a J19 $390 Put? Then you have about $13 of premium. Or go for February (after earnings) and get $20+ worth of premium. The risk then is just TSLA going down rather than failing to go up.

 

[Electroman]

Nobody thinks that the SEC will further prosecute the missed projections of M3 production in 2017? They've found 15 witnesses (former employees) who will testify in court that Tesla was aware that they couldn't hit their targets.
I think we'll see a new major dump of shares when the SEC holds a press conference to announce that they'll continue to sue the board for misleading investors (the same with the 'funding secured' tweet). Timing wise when SP nears $360.
Chanos is too confident in his latest statements about his short position in $TSLA.
I simply don't trust it. He'll make money of this

SEC has all the motivation in the world to inflict maximum damage to this innovative American company. They hate Musk and his guts.

With so much pressure from Shorts, Big oil, Big Auto, UAW, Media there is so much incentive for Shortsellers Enrichment Commission to kill this company. I wouldn't be shocked if some of the esteemed members of SEC are being bank-rolled? Who knows?

Competition couldn't kill it
Wall Street is unable to kill it
MSM is unable to sustain against the onslaught of social media support
The last option is use the Govt & FBI to bring in trumped up fake exaggerated charges to inflict maximum damage, enough for the company to go into a tail spin.

Then America can heave a sigh of relief and we can all go back to status quo.

Sick !!