TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Earlian]

Another strong day, despite macro and new FUD attacks.

Seems like TSLA got immune through that Q3 vaccination.

Happy weekend everyone!


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Edit: @Cobbler But I trust your signature!

 

[KarenRei]

Did you catch from his interview that he is using model 3 chassis as train cars in boring company operations?

He corrected that from chassis to powertrain, but yes.

 

[dandurston]

They've found 15 witnesses (former employees) who will testify in court that Tesla was aware that they couldn't hit their targets.

You have evidence of this?

 

[dandurston]

Consumer Reports article on Nav on Autopilot. Mixed conclusions - likes the tech, concerned about safety.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Consumer Reports article on ________ . Mixed conclusions - likes the tech, concerned about safety.

Fill in the blank. You're welcome.

 

[Toolsmack]

Maybe, we are off max pain, so it's about a $6 million swing per 2.50 stock shift. (if I'm reading correctly). $345 would be their target, I think (still green).

I could be wrong but I think that’s three straight Fridays where we closed within a buck or so of Max Pain quoted in this thread. The previous two were near bullseyes on the number.

 

[TradingInvest]

@Foghat - right on
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher
just ad saleswomen - pathetic - regret I bothered to listen
condescending - so tired of her yes, so, right like she understands EVERYTHING Elon says while she obviously isn't even listening.

[got to love her opening - "no smoking zone, put out the weed and listen" - just an ad selling narcissist working Recode Decode
[got to love that company name - Madison Avenue at its best]

If someone can edit the recording to only keep Elon's talk, that would be great. I feel every time Elon gets into something interesting, she interrupts. I want to hear Elon talk about the details. Let him finish. I hope the future interviewers learn this, you don't have to go through all your questions, let Elon calmly finish his thought. This is not your normal talkshow where people look for entertainment. In Elon's interview, we want to hear the real content, the details.

We need a panel to find a few good candidates so in the future Elon can do interviews with those people.

 

[mongo]

I could be wrong but I think that’s three straight Fridays where we closed within a buck or so of Max Pain quoted in this thread. The previous two were near bullseyes on the number.

From the site I'm looking at it was $322.50... Quite a ways away this week.

 

[anthonyj]

Anyone see a massive bull flag/pennant on the chart?

 

[Toolsmack]

From the site I'm looking at it was $322.50... Quite a ways away this week.

Apologies. I thought you were stating $345 was Max Pain in your earlier post.

 

[Brando]

$10 million/mile for Elon first test tunnel vs LA subway $1 billion/mile (yes, includes train equipement)
Kara didn't seem to hear this.

Sadly, corruption, especially in the public sector, is one of the primary reasons for our Empire failing while stock market climbs.

 

[Fact Checking]

From the site I'm looking at it was $322.50... Quite a ways away this week.

Yes, and that despite attempts by Reuters to again create a "Friday Drop".

Lots of PUT option holders got burned by today's $346 closing price:

 PUT $280:  3,239, CALL $280:    540
 PUT $282:    396, CALL $282:    237
 PUT $285:    945, CALL $285:    556
 PUT $287:    354, CALL $287:    133
 PUT $290:  2,144, CALL $290:  1,016
 PUT $292:    284, CALL $292:     92
 PUT $295:    812, CALL $295:    281
 PUT $297:    400, CALL $297:    144
 PUT $300:  4,670, CALL $300:    944
 PUT $302:    453, CALL $302:    103
 PUT $305:  1,104, CALL $305:    864
 PUT $307:    511, CALL $307:    245
 PUT $310:  2,122, CALL $310:  1,330
 PUT $312:    550, CALL $312:    282
 PUT $315:  1,537, CALL $315:    646
 PUT $317:    458, CALL $317:    274
 PUT $320:  3,508, CALL $320:    989
 PUT $322:    516, CALL $322:    362
 PUT $325:  1,940, CALL $325:    891
 PUT $327:    721, CALL $327:    328
 PUT $330:  1,775, CALL $330:  1,359
 PUT $332:    463, CALL $332:    510
 PUT $335:  1,619, CALL $335:  1,308
 PUT $337:    627, CALL $337:    259
 PUT $340:  1,789, CALL $340:  2,768
 PUT $342:    466, CALL $342:    799
 PUT $345:    926, CALL $345:  1,789
 PUT $347:    118, CALL $347:    464
 PUT $350:    546, CALL $350:  4,110
 PUT $352:     98, CALL $352:    461
 PUT $355:    582, CALL $355:  2,074
 PUT $357:      2, CALL $357:    402
 PUT $360:    140, CALL $360:  3,035

Note how about ~20,000 recently purchased PUT contracts are in the $300-$345 range? That's 2 million shares worth of PUT options which expired worthless - a big trading loss.

A total of 75,000 PUT options expired worthless this week.

No bonus payouts to Reuters journalists this week!

 

[Tslynk67]

Completely OT, but just got V9 delivered and installed - totally surprised as I didn't think it was available outside of the US as of yet...???

 

[Zaxxon]

If someone can edit the recording to only keep Elon's talk, that would be great. I feel every time Elon gets into something interesting, she interrupts. I want to hear Elon talk about the details. Let him finish. I hope the future interviewers learn this, you don't have to go through all your questions, let Elon calmly finish his thought. This is not your normal talkshow where people look for entertainment. In Elon's interview, we want to hear the real content, the details.

We need a panel to find a few good candidates so in the future Elon can do interviews with those people.

He tweeted today that he'll be on Ride the Lightning with Ryan McCaffrey in 2-3 weeks. You can bet Ryan will let him talk.

 

[Zaxxon]

Completely OT, but just got V9 delivered and installed - totally surprised as I didn't think it was available outside of the US as fo yet...???

V9 is. Navigate on Autopilot isn't.

 

[mongo]

Apologies. I thought you were stating $345 was Max Pain in your earlier post.

No, that's my bad, I meant to type, "way off"

 

[capster]

If they use a shipping container form factor, the next step is to load a bunch of them into a cargo ship and connect them to the drive motor. You could even swap them out with a crane while in port.

Might as well put them on trains too.

...or on boring machines?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Hmm, good point - I did a volume comparison, but a mass comparison would be better.

I did a lazy approximate fit of powerpacks/inverters (assuming 10 : 1 ratio) and rounded a bit since we can assume less wasted space for a dedicated design, and came up with ~2.5 such systems for a 40' container, which would come out to ~92,000 lbs. That's well over typical max loading for a regular ISO container, though in theory you could custom build them to handle it, then you have to pull special permits to run them over the road because the typical limit in the US anyways is 80,000 lbs... but hey, you'd get ~1600kVA / ~5.25MWh per container.

Probably doing a 20' container makes more sense, even without optimizing for the purpose could get you a full 10+1 configuration with room to spare for 625kVA / 2.1MWh, at around 40,000 lbs, which is fine for road transport and less than the typical ISO container limit so you don't even need specially design containers. Optimize the design with central cooling system and optionally an oversized (or dual) inverter (for higher kVA), can probably squeeze in a few hundred more kWh, get it up to at least 2.5MWh. 3MWh might be a stretch.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Should approach ATH by next Friday.

 

[avoigt]

Verified account 43s43 seconds ago
Replying to @vincent13031925 @Teslarati @panasonic
Tesla will manufacture all battery modules & packs at China Giga, as we do today in California & Nevada. Cell production will be sourced locally, most likely from several companies (incl Pana), in order to meet demand in a timely manner.