TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe, we are off max pain, so it's about a $6 million swing per 2.50 stock shift. (if I'm reading correctly). $345 would be their target, I think (still green).

I looked for that info this yesterday evening on max-pain.com but I could only find a chart for 11/9/2018 Options Expiries.

Do you have a chart, or can you refer a src for 11/2/2018 expiry? TIA

 

[Brando]

...or on boring machines?

Internet search: electrification of shipping started - Europe and
electric ferries in europe

and note:
ABB powering largest emission-free electric ferries
Industry News | Electric & Hybrid Marine World Expo 2019

All the while US management concentrates on Stock prices and Trump making America great again with coal, walls and wars.

 

[brian45011]

The number of shares available for borrowing in IB is close to ATH...

So bear trap or something else? What's the hard-to-barrow fee lately?

 

[kyzhk]

Yes, and that despite attempts by Reuters to again create a "Friday Drop".

Lots of PUT option holders got burned by today's $346 closing price:

 PUT $280:  3,239, CALL $280:    540
 PUT $282:    396, CALL $282:    237
 PUT $285:    945, CALL $285:    556
 PUT $287:    354, CALL $287:    133
 PUT $290:  2,144, CALL $290:  1,016
 PUT $292:    284, CALL $292:     92
 PUT $295:    812, CALL $295:    281
 PUT $297:    400, CALL $297:    144
 PUT $300:  4,670, CALL $300:    944
 PUT $302:    453, CALL $302:    103
 PUT $305:  1,104, CALL $305:    864
 PUT $307:    511, CALL $307:    245
 PUT $310:  2,122, CALL $310:  1,330
 PUT $312:    550, CALL $312:    282
 PUT $315:  1,537, CALL $315:    646
 PUT $317:    458, CALL $317:    274
 PUT $320:  3,508, CALL $320:    989
 PUT $322:    516, CALL $322:    362
 PUT $325:  1,940, CALL $325:    891
 PUT $327:    721, CALL $327:    328
 PUT $330:  1,775, CALL $330:  1,359
 PUT $332:    463, CALL $332:    510
 PUT $335:  1,619, CALL $335:  1,308
 PUT $337:    627, CALL $337:    259
 PUT $340:  1,789, CALL $340:  2,768
 PUT $342:    466, CALL $342:    799
 PUT $345:    926, CALL $345:  1,789
 PUT $347:    118, CALL $347:    464
 PUT $350:    546, CALL $350:  4,110
 PUT $352:     98, CALL $352:    461
 PUT $355:    582, CALL $355:  2,074
 PUT $357:      2, CALL $357:    402
 PUT $360:    140, CALL $360:  3,035

Note how about ~20,000 recently purchased PUT contracts are in the $300-$345 range? That's 2 million shares worth of PUT options which expired worthless - a big trading loss.

A total of 75,000 PUT options expired worthless this week.

No bonus payouts to Reuters journalists this week!

I would imagine a sizable amount of puts could also be a hedge against their other positions.

For me personally I am one of these put holders but the put positions I hold is mainly for limiting maximum loss and reducing margin requirement on my other positions.

Of course, my overall TSLA position is very bullish.

 

[mongo]

I looked for that info this yesterday evening on max-pain.com but I could only find a chart for 11/9/2018 Options Expiries.

Do you have a chart, or can you refer a src for 11/2/2018 expiry? TIA

I used Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
No idea if it is good or not.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

From 10Q, couple of important datapoints:
1. Tesla made $137M from non-ZEV regulatory credits (non-disclosed in shareholder letter) in addition to $52 ZEV ones (disclosed)
2. There are over $115M or more (10%+) in accounts receivables owed by one single party. Bears think rental agency sale, or large supplier discount (Panasonic?)
3. Tesla confirms that it has received SEC subpoena about M3 production numbers (new info) in addition to Musk communication (old info)

Bears are being, uhhh, frantic??!! Some are likely to have heart attack by the end of night, in disbelief that Tesla is getting away with this

Now, anyone can disagree as much as one wants, but I can see how shareholder letter comes off as non-genuine and (somewhat?) misleading now. This is what I've mentioned in the past - technically correct, yet misleading. I'd prefer Tesla stopped these practices, but I'm grateful they've let me deleverage and I don't care a whole lot anyhow. They've done their fair share of poor communication in both directions. My thesis is long and slow born, and they're moving in the right direction, that's all that matters (when I'm not leveraged!)

Market doesn't seem to care either.
Or, maybe TSLA would've been $350+ without this?

 

[kyzhk]

I would imagine a sizable amount of puts could also be a hedge against their other positions.

For me personally I am one of these put holders but the put positions I hold is mainly for limiting maximum loss and reducing margin requirement on my other positions.

Of course, my overall TSLA position is very bullish.

Just want to clarify my main point:

Put holders can be overall bullish in their TSLA position.

 

[Remus]

I listened to it during a run. Joe Rogan having success I can understand 100% - he's enthusiastic, we'll red and just the right amount eccentric. But this woman, terrible interviewer, didn't give up trying to get the answer she was expecting. At one point Elon just laughed and said: I don't think you're hearing me.

I think there might be some misunderstanding on your part. She was asking why, despite of all these pain, why he does what he does. That is giving an opportunity for Elon to reiterate the mission statement of Tesla, showing how important Tesla is to the world, and how important Elon is to the world.

 

[davecolene0606]

Nobody thinks that the SEC will further prosecute the missed projections of M3 production in 2017? They've found 15 witnesses (former employees) who will testify in court that Tesla was aware that they couldn't hit their targets.
I think we'll see a new major dump of shares when the SEC holds a press conference to announce that they'll continue to sue the board for misleading investors (the same with the 'funding secured' tweet). Timing wise when SP nears $360.
Chanos is too confident in his latest statements about his short position in $TSLA.
I simply don't trust it. He'll make money of this

Just wondering where your info re witnesses willing to testify comes from? Is there some leak/source or has the SEC publicly stated this or is this being fronted by Chanos?

I agree there’s no criminality that Chanos won’t stoop to to his end, but your post implies he is privy to insider info from the SEC.

If true about the “employees” I expect people who weren’t able to do the job would be former ones.

Fire Away!

 

[SpaceCash]

Anyone see a massive bull flag/pennant on the chart?

YES

 

[tinm]

Kara is in denial about the level of BS many news organizations shovel to the public regarding Tesla. Or, she just isn’t aware. Her seemingly automatic defense of all journalists and later trying to get Elon to apologize to them even though we all know they published BS hit pieces was cringeworthy. Kudos to Elon for not getting up and walking out at that point.

She doesn’t do much homework herself. She’s always been this way—trying to wring headline-worthy quotes out of her tech celebrity interviewees. Walt Mossberg was the same way though not as obvious about it as Kara. I’ve known ‘em both decades. They are not in-depth reporters imho. They’re commentators who love “big gets” and Elon is the biggest “get” of all these days.

Elon was trying to be helpful but you could sense his frustration at Kara’s simply not grokking certain things. She also has a tendency to ask a short question, then add pointless multiple-sentence embellishments either as a power play to keep the big-shot from speaking or as a courtesy to give them time to formulate a better answer. (You can probably guess which one I think it is.) She also suffers from a tendency too many podcast hosts exhibit: constantly interrupting.

It seemed like an interview with a real journalist with some interesting news bits along the way. Elon’s criticism of faux “journalists”/attack dogs early in the interview was unfortunate, though perhaps understandable. Otherwise, it was a good listen.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Kara is in denial about the level of BS many news organizations shovel to the public regarding Tesla. Or, she just isn’t aware. Her seemingly automatic defense of all journalists and later trying to get Elon to apologize to them even though we all know they published BS hit pieces was cringeworthy. Kudos to Elon for not getting up and walking out at that point.

She doesn’t do much homework herself. She’s always been this way—trying to wring headline-worthy quotes out of her tech celebrity interviewees. Walt Mossberg was the same way though not as obvious about it as Kara. I’ve known ‘em both decades. They are not in-depth reporters imho. They’re commentators who love “big gets” and Elon is the biggest “get” of all these days.

Elon was trying to be helpful but you could sense his frustration at Kara’s simply not grokking certain things. She also has a tendency to ask a short question, then add pointless multiple-sentence embellishments either as a power play to keep the big-shot from speaking or as a courtesy to give them time to formulate a better answer. (You can probably guess which one I think it is.) She also suffers from a tendency too many podcast hosts exhibit: constantly interrupting.

To be fair, most real journalists aren't attacking Elon/Tesla, or even writing about them. Plenty of big news orgs are (but even then it's a select few writing the articles, not the entire staff), but just as he said we shouldn't paint all Saudis with the same brush their government has earned, we should not paint all journalists with the same brush. It's a bit awkward to try to explain why yes, there's a lot of "fake news" / bad / misinformed articles on Elon/Tesla circulating, but no, most of the main stream media is not in fact "fake news" much less the enemy of the public, but in fact the opposite ... the news orgs going after Elon / Tesla in high profile are not helping themselves defend against the Trump narrative, but they keep doing it ... thankfully, so far Trump hasn't latched on to any of it, and instead rails against the truth because it's only the truth that is inconvenient to him.

 

[Unpilot]

It's pretty obvious when an interviewer is in over their head. Rogan was (even though I liked the podcast)..and Kara was as well.
Not understanding your subject seems rampant these days.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I listened to it during a run. Joe Rogan having success I can understand 100% - he's enthusiastic, we'll red and just the right amount eccentric. But this woman, terrible interviewer, didn't give up trying to get the answer she was expecting. At one point Elon just laughed and said: I don't think you're hearing me.

Huh, Joe Rogan is entertainer, Kara Swisher is one of the few rare (real) good journalists left.

And while tough, she's friendly to both Tesla and Elon. She didn't let him shoot himself in the foot, and gave him platform to more genuinely express himself. I thought it was a great Elon interview. I had more chance to appreciate his depth, more than in a superficial chat with Joe Rogan.

Joe Rogan interview was warmed over old statements collected and repeated, this one had some depth - like termal vs. power limits on the speed of drilling etc. It genuinely made me understand how piss poor job of optimizing boring previous companies have done, and why there is such an opportunity there. It reminded me why I'm almost sure Tesla will win and am over 100% on TSLA... I do wish this one was 3 hrs!

 

[SpaceCash]

Should approach ATH by next Friday.

Definitely

To be fair, most real journalists aren't attacking Elon/Tesla, or even writing about them. Plenty of big news orgs are (but even then it's a select few writing the articles, not the entire staff), but just as he said we shouldn't paint all Saudis with the same brush their government has earned, we should not paint all journalists with the same brush. It's a bit awkward to try to explain why yes, there's a lot of "fake news" / bad / misinformed articles on Elon/Tesla circulating, but no, most of the main stream media is not in fact "fake news" much less the enemy of the public, but in fact the opposite ... the news orgs going after Elon / Tesla in high profile are not helping themselves defend against the Trump narrative, but they keep doing it ... thankfully, so far Trump hasn't latched on to any of it, and instead rails against the truth because it's only the truth that is inconvenient to him.

I kinda disagree with almost everything you said here. You can't "make it" in journalism unless you're willing to kowtow to certain interests. You have to be a bad journalist to make it. For real. Podcast hosts are a little different but as far as journalism? Nah, there are essentially no good ones who are remotely mainstream. And uh... go to the Middle East yourself and check those cats out.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

With some basic site prep for leveling and anchoring, you could probably have it up and running within hours of its arrival. The military should love these things.

I could imagine that the next big step would be a variant that comes with a self-deploying solar array. I wonder if it would be acceptable to transport operators for a customer to modify ISO containers so that they can be unhinged and fold open? Now just think of how awesome *that* would be. "Rome wasn't built in a day, but this gigantic solar power plant was." Panels could be on collapsible wings like you see on satellites / spacecraft, with a support pole at the end of each one and guy wires to hold them in place. If elevated enough and not too dense, they could function as partial shade cloth for crops grown beneath (some crops actually grow better in partial shade, and shade reduces water loss). That would so take over the world.

When you've got a 40,000lb+ container to set down, I don't think you need to anchor it. Maybe prepare the surface so it doesn't just sink into it ... but it's not going anywhere - at least not without something so catastrophic that anchoring is the least of your concerns. You don't even need to approach true level, just get it consistent and level enough that you can unload it safely.

 

[ZsoZso]

From 10Q, couple of important datapoints:
1. Tesla made $137M from non-ZEV regulatory credits (non-disclosed in shareholder letter) in addition to $52 ZEV ones (disclosed)
2. There are over $115M or more (10%+) in accounts receivables owed by one single party. Bears think rental agency sale, or large supplier discount (Panasonic?)
3. Tesla confirms that it has received SEC subpoena about M3 production numbers (new info) in addition to Musk communication (old info)

Bears are being, uhhh, frantic??!! Some are likely to have heart attack by the end of night, in disbelief that Tesla is getting away with this

Now, anyone can disagree as much as one wants, but I can see how shareholder letter comes off as non-genuine and (somewhat?) misleading now. T

As for #2, if bears wouldn't deliberately ignore the fact that Tesla is NOT just a car company, and made ~400M revenue from TE this Q, then maybe, just maybe they could fathom the idea that the one large accounts receivable entity could have been a payment for a big battery park... (instead of a Saudi prince buying a fleet of Teslas for high powered bumber car park or some such fantasy)

 

[azaz]

people attacking kara in this thread are wild

 

[Cartegena]

Yeah they def didn't sell imho

How do you know that?

 

[DaveT]

Just curious, is anybody doing stuff like this here? (see image)