TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Nothing wrong with preferring that he didn't overshare and making that preference known, especially if a statement could potentially have some regulatory side effect or give ammunition to lawyers. I'm not complaining and in the long run (pun intended) it likely doesn't matter much, but Elon does create more than a few cringeworthy moments.

Futile. I’d prefer it not rain on my parade but it’s going to so rather than ‘state my preference’, I spend the resources preparing for the rain. Energy better spent, no?

It’s a given he sometimes creates cringe worthy moments. Like my spouse who invariably will walk out the door leaving every freaking light on in the house, I still accept and love and try to keep my preference to myself for both our sakes. And thus I have prepared by making my home all wifi and app connected such that a touch of my finger turns everything off at once no matter where I am in the world.

Prepare for Elon to show you the attic.

 

[Krugerrand]

Except this is something he can change. I get that he likes to mention how difficult things get sometimes for him, it's probably cathartic. And I really don't mind him mentioning how Tesla nearly died in 2008. I do have a problem when he mentions Tesla nearly dying in 2018... in 2018! Too damn soon!

Doesn’t matter if he can change it. It only matters if he wants to change it.

Hint: he’s not changing

 

[Do It]

I think it's a sufficiently vague and anonymous survey that it's not going to reveal anyone's individual holdings. And what the results already are revealing is that the mode (modal value) range of TSLA investment on this forum is in the $100K-$500K range, so not big fish, but also not tiny minnows.

Which I actually think is interesting. This forum's members as a group can't move the market long-term and aren't withholding a meaningful percentage of shares from short-sellers. (Which is not to deny that there might be one billionaire on here, keeping quiet. Or, of course, that others silently reading the forum might be influenced.)

Also, it means typical investors on this forum are in a range where it's worth it to worry about breaking an order up into small pieces to avoid moving the market; dumping a $500K order on the market all at once *is* a bad idea.

The survey was going strong until someone posted objections now it is stuck at "Answered:100 Skipped:27"

Last call to the lurking billionaires out there to party with us:

Survey link: TMC tsla investor survey
Result link: TMC tsla investor survey

By the way I have added more choices to accommodate you guys: 5M - 10M, 10M - 1B, 1B+

 

[Fact Checking]

No it will not. We are going to stop this carbon mess and then reverse the process.

That unfortunately won't stop the Antarctic glaciers which are already irreversibly compromised from below:

NASA Study Reveals West Antarctic Glaciers in Irreversible State of Decline​

Barring terraforming-level of future technologies that can operate on glaciers.

Carbon pollution and global warming still has to be stopped - but sea level rise is probably irreversible, and the price tag and body count of that crime against humanity will be enormous.

 

[ZachF]

Not really. The old wells in KSA are about $10. But they have to now pump in a lot of water to get oil out of many of the wells that has made them more expensive. Still KSA has some of the cheapest wells.

The problem with this is applying cost in a privatized anglo-saxon corporate structure to petro-states.

The actual cost of Saudi oil (and many other petro states) is much higher, because it funds the government...It also funds subsidies for cheap domestic gasoline and electricity. Saudi Arabia can not really raise taxes from the rest of it's economy, because almost nothing outside of the oil sector of it's economy actually adds value. Once you add in all those other thing, the cost of Saudi oil is more like $60+ a barrel... and believe me it's much easier for a private oil company to cut costs than for a petro-state to enact massive austerity measures.

 

[Carl Raymond]

A noob observation - feel free to correct.

Seems to me that a second run up to $365 will be far easier than the recent one last week. What's changed is the actual stockholders and their expectations.

People who purchased below $300 with price targets in mid 300s are out already. They sold last week, to buyers who will be looking for $400 plus before selling.

With fewer willing sellers at current prices, it should be an easy road back to $365, where once again the machetes (new news, perhaps) are required to break new ground.

 

[traxila]

Been playing with options for years, but continue to do stupidities here and there.

Bough weekly calls last week with TSLA at around 341 and proceeded to get wiped out to the tune of a 95% loss.

If I had simply bought this weeks calls instead at the same strike, 337.5, all would be fine.

Like Musk says, if you do not like the volatility...

 

[Krugerrand]

We can probably get one of those Detroit plants for free in 2020 when Model Y is ramping. That state will be on its knees begging for Tesla to knock on its door.

Nope. Free is never free. These have baggage. The Oshawa plant is hands down the best choice. If people here see it, Tesla would see it too.

 

[ZachF]

Nope. Free is never free. These have baggage. The Oshawa plant is hands down the best choice. If people here see it, Tesla would see it too.

Since Ford is ending sedan production, they must be closing plants soon too? Tesla may have a few to chose from for the Y/Truck

 

[CorneliusXX]

woah, is me’

Have you surprised yourself?

 

[Artful Dodger]

That unfortunately won't stop the Antarctic glaciers which are already irreversibly compromised from below:

NASA Study Reveals West Antarctic Glaciers in Irreversible State of Decline​

Barring terraforming-level of future technologies that can operate on glaciers. Carbon pollution still has to be stopped - but sea level rise is probably irreversible.

Elon has a plan. He's going to move all that water to Mars.

 

[gora321]

Nissan Postpones Launch Of 60-kWh LEAF e-Plus - Tesla Motors Club

VW afterquakes+GM+F...looks like start of the end of ICE world!
They definitely woke up!

 

[Tslynk67]

But there's a difference between honesty and providing excess information. I can invite folks over to my house and play host, but I don't have to show them the darkest recesses of the basement or the attic. When my guests leave, I don't want them focusing on my messed up basement/attic.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Macros aren't moving. They've been NASDAQ ~= +1,5% all day. But TSLA keeps climbing. We're touching on 4% up now.

I can only think that this GM news is being interpreted as good news for Tesla. Perhaps a sign that EVs are the future? Perhaps cash fleeing GM looking for another home in the auto sector? I don't know.

Either way, it's no longer a buyer's market. :Þ Missed my chance. Thank you, unexpectedly-long-bank-transfer-times :Þ

ED: Clearly not cash fleeing GM; GM is up.

I think the question "where will all the batteries come from?" will be front and centre for the foreseeable future. GM changing tac is huge

 

[gora321]

Will we see some panic this week?
Maybe some +10% spikes?

 

[shootformoon]

All three are. Oshawa is the best choice of the three, IMO. Michigan is still hostile to Tesla regardless of the party in power, and Hamtramck is a bad location from an employee recruiting perspective. Lordstown is a bad location from a transportation and employee recruiting perspective.

Oshawa can draw from the entire Toronto workforce and has excellent transportation connections. The GO station is within pedestrian-bridge distance if someone would bother to build one, or in employee-shuttle distance if you want to be wasteful.

I bet GM won't sell the plant, just to spite Tesla, but it actually would be a great location.

On the contrary, lordstown would be a great location for transportation and recruiting(especially considering the labor shortage). After all, rusty belt was built for manufacturing.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Judean Peoples Front? Bah,,,splitters.

 

[TDog]

GM's Mary Barra to meet with White House Economic Advisor today.

GM's Barra to meet Trump adviser Kudlow after job-cut announcement

I hope they discuss an extension or change to the federal EV tax credit.

 

[shootformoon]

The interesting thing about this (somewhat out of date) chart is this: even $50/bbl oil knocks out most of the supply. Mexico, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and "Other Middle East" are all that's really left. I know cost-cutting has improved since 2007 meaning that *some* of the "other" is profitable, but there should be a serious supply crunch coming just on a production-cost basis. This has been avoided by setting fire to investor money in unprofitable hole-drilling, as far as I can tell. So the financial crash of oil companies should come before the supply crunch. The supply crunch will be temporary as demand crashing will take care of it.

At least large portion of Permian is profitable at $50/b

 

[EVNow]

Which leaves two main options for a global crash: crash-out BRExit or a meteorite strike.

3. Tariff wars
4. Actual wars
5. Merkel out, a "nationalist" German government in
6. Sanctions against KSA
7. etc