TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I can only think that this GM news is being interpreted as good news for Tesla. Perhaps a sign that EVs are the future? Perhaps cash fleeing GM looking for another home in the auto sector? I don't know.

Note the details of GM's plant closures:

• After Ford now GM too is shutting down a lot of sedan production, betting on SUVs.
• As it happens the key product of Tesla is a sedan.
• Tesla is going to absorb a lot of new demand for domestically made sedans.
• Those who considered the very popular Chevy Volt might buy a Model 3 instead,
• Tesla's sedan production is now part of the "Big Two" of domestic manufacturers of sedans.
• Obviously sedans are even bigger markets in Europe and China - higher U.S. demand helps there too.

I do think both GM and Ford are making a mistake conceding the domestic sedan market to Tesla.

It's funny that our resident "no demand" concern troll with a stuck "Disagree!" button chose today of all days to complain about no Tesla demand...

 

[tivoboy]

I might end up eating crow, but I see near zero chance for systemic megabank failure in the next 10 years.

2008-2009 was a near death experience for many of them, which experience got burned into institutional memory.

It's also pretty clear that politicians in the next 20 years probably won't allow another Lehmann.

Which leaves two main options for a global crash: crash-out BRExit or a meteorite strike.

10 years is a long time to analyze for the probability of some black swan event to occur (nuclear detonation somewhere on the planet, major cyber breach across government systems, financial, personal records, rogue nation takes out GPS satellite network, biological attack in some western country that kills 1+million inhabitants) These things are hard to factor, any of which could certainly great a depression and major bank banking crises - not to mention some humanitarian and financial crises.

But, I'm include to concur NET of one of the above. Save for maybe a couple national banks in OTHER countries.

 

[Tslynk67]

In the meantime a German court in Braunschweig calculated the damage done from VW with the Diesel cheating devices with € 4.3 bn (about $ 4.9 bn)

Gericht rechnet Schaden durch VW aus

I'd say they got away lightly - after all, how many people will have died prematurely as a result?

 

[RobStark]

Since Ford is ending sedan production, they must be closing plants soon too? Tesla may have a few to chose from for the Y/Truck

Unlikely. Ford doesn't have a lot of over capacity. Just wrong capacity.

They will be switching from making sedans to more F 150s, Rangers,Expeditions, Explorers, Broncos and Navigators.

Then there is that 300 mile BEV midsize Crossover they keep promising for 2020.

 

[tivoboy]

The problem with this is applying cost in a privatized anglo-saxon corporate structure to petro-states.

The actual cost of Saudi oil (and many other petro states) is much higher, because it funds the government...It also funds subsidies for cheap domestic gasoline and electricity. Saudi Arabia can not really raise taxes from the rest of it's economy, because almost nothing outside of the oil sector of it's economy actually adds value. Once you add in all those other thing, the cost of Saudi oil is more like $60+ a barrel... and believe me it's much easier for a private oil company to cut costs than for a petro-state to enact massive austerity measures.

the "cost" of Saudi oil is not higher, but their NEED for the price to be above a certain point in order to meet their current and planned obligations IS Much higher. I've seen numbers well north of 80$ just to break even. (its well over 100$ a barrel for Russia to meet even SOME of their obligations)

At this point in their history, they are borrowing over 80BILLION a year in debt just to make ends meet.

 

[tivoboy]

Been playing with options for years, but continue to do stupidities here and there.

Bough weekly calls last week with TSLA at around 341 and proceeded to get wiped out to the tune of a 95% loss.

If I had simply bought this weeks calls instead at the same strike, 337.5, all would be fine.

Like Musk says, if you do not like the volatility...

Track and analyze your trades, qualify type, review. You'll figure out the ones that you should stay away from unless the RR is high enough.

 

[tivoboy]

Elon has a plan. He's going to move all that water to Mars.

Theres's not enough money on the planet to move 1/10th of that water to mars.

 

[RobStark]

.

• Those who considered the very popular Chevy Volt might buy a Model 3 instead,

Last year GM sold 20,349 Volts in the USA.

So far this year GM has sold 14,718 Volts this year.

The Volt is not popular( much less very popular), it is the geek standing at the back of the hall during Prom.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Hope we close above 345 ? Btw, is any chance that GM might work wth TSLA in someway to boost American made EV cars?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I know you were joking, but, it is actually quite offensive to all of us who come from countries that were decimated by colonialism.

Roman or European?

 

[RFernatt]

Futile. I’d prefer it not rain on my parade but it’s going to so rather than ‘state my preference’, I spend the resources preparing for the rain. Energy better spent, no?

It’s a given he sometimes creates cringe worthy moments. Like my spouse who invariably will walk out the door leaving every freaking light on in the house, I still accept and love and try to keep my preference to myself for both our sakes. And thus I have prepared by making my home all wifi and app connected such that a touch of my finger turns everything off at once no matter where I am in the world.

Prepare for Elon to show you the attic.

Meh. We're all armchair quarterbacks here airing our thoughts and comments to other armchair quarterbacks about what your favorite company's leaders woulda, coulda, shoulda done. Even though the home team wins in the end, we want to talk about what they could have done better in our own humble opinions. Maybe it's cathartic, maybe it's masochistic, who knows, but it is what it is and we keep coming back for more. Cheers.

 

[snellenr]

I know you were joking, but, it is actually quite offensive to all of us who come from countries that were decimated by colonialism.

Seattle?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Take this with a heap of salt -- unverified account from someone on reddit with regard to the GM restructuring:

GM worker here at the Corporate Headquarters in Oshawa.

I can tell you for certain that this isn't a big move because of tarrifs, although they do hurt. This is most definitely a move to head towards Electric Vehicles. The Oshawa plant has been dying for years and was slated to close months ago, this is a plan that was set in motion in 2015.

GM Canada is definitely hiring en-masse, but they're hiring engineers for their Technical Center in Markham. This is a 50/50 move to prepare financially as well as to focus on changing economies for electric vehicles

If folks feel it's irresponsible for me to post unverified information, I'm happy to remove.

 

[Chop110]

Kissed 345...

 

[Chop110]

Any chance of breaking 365 on this current trajectory? Maybe this week?

 

[Curt Renz]

I know you were joking, but, it is actually quite offensive to all of us who come from countries that were decimated by colonialism.

Seattle?

Native American | Visit Seattle

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Elon has a plan. He's going to move all that water to Mars.

Fix two stones with one bird?

 

[lklundin]

No kidding. Not funny while I'm waiting for a call buy to go through :Þ

Well, with today's price action I am wondering at what price your first sell order executes.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Take this with a heap of salt -- unverified account from someone on reddit with regard to the GM restructuring:



If folks feel it's irresponsible for me to post unverified information, I'm happy to remove.

Even if unverified, it's a hypothesis.

 

[lklundin]

Since Trump is so obsessed with American companies building things in America, maybe he should come to his senses and get behind the one American auto company that's massively increasing it's American manufacturing capacity? I know... it's nice to dream, lol.

More realistically, one can hope that the next POTUS will.