TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

China suddenly added a 25% tariff on top of a 15% tariff. Of course that would immediately depress the demand. People at least want to wait a while to see what will happen next. I think this situation is likely to improve dramatically soon. 1. Potential trade deal; 2. China plans to reduce import tariff on certain products anyway; 3. Tesla can build tents and assemble cars in China.

The appearance of a slab on the Shanghai plot will spur excitement, signalling that production starts in 2 weeks.

 

[SpaceCash]

The appearance of a slab on the Shanghai plot will spur excitement, signalling that production starts in 2 weeks.

Praying for a tent, personally...

 

[Intl Professor]

Nothing and nobody surprises me, even myself.

Surely your life is not that dull, though one of your cats diverts us still.

 

[Off Shore]

Seattle?

Absolutely. Just ask its namesake:

 

[Off Shore]

The whole thing is literally an experiment with our planet that is beyond the pale...

On the contrary, it's what humanity's going to be doing for the next three to five-hundred years, as we terraform Planets 3 and 4. If we stopped putting CO2 into the oceans (oh, yeah and the air) this minute we're still looking at species die-off that makes the Sixth Extinction look like the First (86% loss).

 

[Buckminster]

Lol, I took up arms on behalf of carsonight because of the use of the term 'scuttlebutt'. I always thought it meant malicious rumour. I've just looked it up and it means nothing more than rumour or gossip, with no negative connotation. Apologies - my bad.

Scuttle means hole or opening.
Butt means booty.
I always thought that scuttlebutt meant anal discussion.
As in, anal retentive...
I always thought that explained much of the discussion around here...

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't know how similar 3 will be to Y.

But, in general what is the use of platforms if the similarity is not much. How do you achieve significant economies if they don't share parts ?

Tesla should stop making changes for the sake of making changes - or for pure cool factor. They do continuous improvements - which is great. They should keep the cool factor to S/X/Roadster - and just make reliable, good 3/Y/Pickup/Semi. Cool can be a "trickle down".

Cool and unusual is needed when you are still making 50k cars a year to garner attention. Not anymore.

They should keep doing what they are doing. Constant changes lead to higher margins over time through increased efficiency and a better product for customers. As soon as companies start to offer a product that is less than the best they can they leave the door open for competitors .

 

[Yonki]

Schwab will let you invest your Roth IRA in whatever you want. (I believe Fidelity will too, but I haven't checked.)

I’m about 300 messages behind, so forgive me if this has already been answered, but yes, Fidelity lets you invest your Roth IRA funds in whatever you want. My small Fidelity Roth IRA is currently 100% TSLA shares.

 

[Earlian]

Praying for a tent, personally...

IF they go for tents there are already 100s or more, because Chinese workers build halls at the same speed others built tents.

But seriously, I‘m in for a big surprise regarding the ramp up in China (but without a leak, maybe we won’t hear about it this year)...

 

[shlokavica22]

The news may very well be true and kind of expected. The real question is why Reuters only reports about Tesla's sales drop? Sure, some manufacturers have local factories as well, but not all and not for all cars. The tariff hit them too, so where is the context on how much everyone else lost?

Because it can be used as a dig at Trump. It's not all about Tesla. Don't forget that GM/F/BMW very conveniently blame their drop in the profits as a consequence of the tariffs (which very well might have an impact, but not as much as TSLA's expansion).

 

[avoigt]

Sales in October in China down 70%.

Tesla China sales plunge 70 pct in October | Business Recorder

Thats to be expected given the tariff war. It helps know body and is in particular bad for US businesses.

Over time Tesla will become with the new GF more independent from politicians which is a welcome development.

With regards to low sales in Chain its important to realize that the output of X and S is supply constraint by Batteries. As of today all cars produced are shipped and sold somewhere. Even if the sales in October is down due to tariffs it won't have any effect for planned deliveries globally.

The same is actually true for the 3. If for whatever reasons a version of the 3 lacks demand in a specific country Tesla can always deliver to an other country, open up a new market or even play with pricing or specifications. There are so many levers they can play with that we won't see a situation where demand is capped for a long time to come.

 

[KarenRei]

But seriously, I‘m in for a big surprise regarding the ramp up in China (but without a leak, maybe we won’t hear about it this year)...

I'm very bullish about the ramp, too. While laying the general infrastructure is going to take some time, Tesla has already demonstrated that they can build GA lines at lightning speed. I think the real question is how fast they can get a paint shop operational and make arrangements for either temporary anti-corrosive coating or dry-packaging shipping BIWs to Shanghai. With 10k BIWs in Fremont (7k used locally, 3k exported), Shanghai could be rolling out 3k vehicles per year in 2H 2019. Possibly even early Q3, although I'm more sanguine about the fall. It relies not just on what happens in Shanghai, but also in Fremont, GF1, and the whole supply chain.

 

[dondy]

Toyota does have two potential aces up their sleeve to survive the transition: automotive industries are far larger and far much more of a point of national pride and therefore are more likely to be bailed out, and their partnership with Panasonic (although see @neroden's post about Panasonic potentially angling to sell their battery division off, although there is the whole thing where Japan tends to only let that kind of thing happen if a company is in dire financial straits).

Ford's also got one - simply piggybacking on Volkswagen's transition, and Volkswagen is IMO the best-positioned of the ICE manufacturers to make the transition thanks to Dieselgate and the reprioritization that came in its wake. (That's something that came about after I bought a put option against Ford... should've sold my most recent purchase right before Ford's earnings, but oh well.) That said, Volkswagen's got a tough road - Electrify America seems to be the same sugar as the existing third-party DCFC networks, just more of it, and there's still not a good answer for batteries for VW.

Honda... Honda's never been good at anything that didn't have an engine in it (and lately they're not even good at engines).

GM is too dependent on LG to supply them with their EV technology. They have some homegrown tech, but...

Toyota doesn't have any partnership with Panasonic. More of it they have strategic partnership with mortal concurrent of Matsushita(Panasonic now) Mitsubishi. 2 years ago Toyota announced strategic partnership for EV development with Mazda. Mazda is auto subsidiary of Mitsubishi concern.

FIY. Departure of Panasonic from consumer market is nothing more but imitation of successful transition of Mitsubishi (electric) into major international supplier. Much bigger money with less continuous investments, less administrative hassle and easier planning.

 

[avoigt]

4h4 hours ago


Here are my current estimates for Q4 2018:

Production:
60,750 Model 3
25,116 Model S+X
Total: 85,866

Deliveries:
61,976 Model 3
27,872 Model S+X Total:
89,848

Troy Teslike on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Is it 70% "sales plunge" in China, or 70% deliveries less? Quite a difference and I would have thought that Tesla would be giving priority to fulfilling US orders before year-end.

 

[22522]

These are the exact type of posts I was talking about that were being made 3 years ago. These are assumption posts. People assume the 3 ramp up would go smoothly because of various factors that were "known at the time". Elon has said they dropped the ball on part of the ramp up.

I have my 3, I back the company, but I'm really tired of these projections on here. I've read them since 2012.

I am guilty of thinking that Elon would do what needed to be done - the obvious thing. And asserting as much.

I did not always know the process capability of the company.

 

[gora321]

4h4 hours ago


Here are my current estimates for Q4 2018:

Production:
60,750 Model 3
25,116 Model S+X
Total: 85,866

Deliveries:
61,976 Model 3
27,872 Model S+X Total:
89,848

Troy Teslike on Twitter

Also some mention..
Q4 deliveries estimates *from credible sources* range from 89k to 110k+
from:
ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[SpaceCash]

Also some mention..
Q4 deliveries estimates *from credible sources* range from 89k to 110k+
from:
ValueAnalyst on Twitter

That person has a volatile track record and sold their house to buy TSLA. Not trying to disparage, but I take these particular predictions with a large helping of salt. Power to them and hopefully they're not simply making up that range there.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Also some mention..
Q4 deliveries estimates *from credible sources* range from 89k to 110k+
from:
ValueAnalyst on Twitter

5 weeks remaining and nobody knows if m3 production rate will be 5k or 7k per week. Variance understandable.

 

[SpaceCash]

5 weeks remaining and nobody knows if m3 production rate will be 5k or 7k per week. Variance understandable.

We know that we have not been at 7k per week thus far. I haven't seen anything to suggest they are over 6k/week run rate. They have set a goal to achieve 7k burst rate some time in december. I think the range is over-wide bordering on silly. I'd like to be wrong here.