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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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10m10 minutes ago
Replying to @thinkpophealth , $TSLA's average stock borrow fee for 2018 is 2.20% fee and #Tesla shorts spent $217 million in stock borrow costs to support their shorts in 2018. $TSLA's highest borrow fee was 6.07% fee in April, and it ranged between 3.5%-4% fee from April to June

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Tesla getting more out of tune with the market by the hour. Apple, Google, Amazon, Netflix all up 3 to 5%, Tesla barely green.

Today shorts are chatting up the dismissal of Tesla's 11-month head of global security, which the company says is no longer a needed postition. Much ado about nothing, that may be creating investor opportunity.
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

A huge number of Model 3 reservation holders are waiting for a wider range of configuration choices, including a smaller battery pack. Not everyone must have a new car today, and those waiting for a cheaper version may not owe enough in taxes to be able to fully take advantage of the $7500 tax credit. So for the rest of the year Tesla will be catering to those who can take advantage of the full credit and willing to buy the high margin options.

Meanwhile:


Please let us know how your "friend" reacts to this. ;)
 
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I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?
The old, asking for a friend (AFAF) trick. Nice one. Tell him, bet it all, bankwupsy any day now, no demand, Tesla killers right around the corner, and possibly even under your bed.
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?
Ignoring for the moment that you're a paid basher, your post makes no sense.

Why are you trying to convince your friend it will get to 5-700 SP if you are having such a tough time justifying the piddly little 60bn valuation?

Don't quit your day job.
 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?

Yes:

 
I have a friend that is short Tesla and I am trying to convince him that Tesla will reach 500-700 USD per share next year. His arguments are the following:

a) Competition is coming and the order book of Tesla Model 3 is quite small. If you want a Model 3, you can order it today and you get it within weeks. This just means that order backlog is already gone.

b) Market capitalization of Tesla is a whooping 60 USDbn at the moment with revenues of 18 USDbn and they are barely cash flow and net profit positive. Maybe they'll go profitable now - but even then - what is the reason for a market cap of 60 USD bn? If you compare that market cap to BMW - for example - which has revenues of 115 USD bn (8x more than TESLA today) and does make profits with relatively high margins - it cannot just be the future and the Supercharger network - thats insane? BMW had net profits of 8 USDbn in 2017!!!!

Why is Tesla valued at 60 USDbn and BMW valued at 50 USDbn when BMW is far more profitable and has 10x more revenue?


Does somebody have a good answer to that?


50% annual growth with greatly improving cashflow and profitability vs. major models quickly losing share and company actually approaching bankruptcy?
 
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As this detailed Bloomberg article lays out, California's more progressive policies (especially on renewable energy and autos) are a major reason it has shown far better economic growth the past eight years vs the U.S. economy. Success on this scale has made housing prices even worse and that surely lends impetus to some leaving for states where they can find good paying jobs and affordable housing. It's a serious problem but not serious enough to change their successful formula .

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"Jerry Brown, California's longest-serving governor, takes the opposite approach, and his state thrives. California is the global leader among governments committed to safeguarding the planet from climate change. Corporate California's revenues from clean energy companies dwarf those of the other 49 states or any country. The state's auto emissions law, now contested by the Trump administration, is the nation's most stringent. The legislature voted to become a sanctuary state, preventing police from participating in federal enforcement or asking people about their immigration status. The same assembly also made California the first state to declare a $15-an-hour minimum wage and to require solar panels on new homes. Its citizens approved Proposition 30, temporarily raising personal income and sales taxes to fund education."
Best site for a future Tesla expansion: Another CA-like state or province in the Eastern U.S. or Canada and/or similar EU nation. Well-educated workforce and plenty of disposable income - to buy Tesla’s, of course - are also a must.
 
That's anecdotal. Just like the statement: "the French startup I work for is 6 year-old and a global leader in its segment". Who cares?


Perhaps having the most protective work ethic and labour rules is antiquated but that doesn't make it worst in my opinion. From my French perspective, France is the most resilient Western society nowadays, and that explains some disadvantages. It probably depends on your time horizon.

I'm English, well British, I guess you'd correctly term it. I was born in 1966 - a fine year - and emigrated, if that's the right word, to Belgium in 1999 when offered a job there. From 1984 until then, my partner was an Italian/Sicilian girl, born in the UK.

I'm still in Belgium - and no, it wasn't top of my list - but you follow the paths of life that a re presented to you. However, the Italian/Sicilian girl is ancient history and I ended up marrying a Danish girl in 2001, in the meantime we have three kids and we both work in the European Commission - she as an official (so civil servant), myself as a freelance consultant.

I am, of course, an immigrant. I am in a minority in the country I'm living in. But what I've learned in my time here is quite profound. Firstly, I see that we are all the same. Regardless of nationality, skin colour or religion, the fundamentals are the same. For sure, there are some cultural differences, but these are easy to strip away and what you're left with is a human being with pretty much the same basic needs in life as yourself and everyone else..

The other revelation is that you cannot tar a people with the same brush. For sure, as mentioned, there are a host of cultural differences that need to be catered for, but everyone is an individual, especially when it comes to ambition work-ethic and the like. A good example can be seen in the microcosm of Belgium, where you have the stereotypical lazy Walloons (French speakers) and the industrious Flemmish (Dutch speakers). Now to be fair, I relate better to the Flemish - the culture is much closer to the UK than the Walloons, but through direct experience, you cannot generalise that one group is lazier than the other, it just isn't true. For sure you'll get individuals that fit your expectation to prove the rule, but you'll get many others that do not.

The point of all this? Don't generalise about countries, it's wrong.

I work in an office with the following nationalities: Belgian, Albanian, Italian, French, Spanish, Argentinian, Greek, German, Lebanese, Iranian, Hungarian, Romanian, Cuban, Polish... maybe I missed one or two. Trust me, you could not predict which ones are the hard workers based on that.
 
For producers of batteries, check out CATL for instance. They (a Chinese company) will open a factory in Germany to produce batteries for BMW. Yep, not the other way round.

According to Lithium ion batteries - main manufacturers 2018 | Statistic, these are the top 5:
1. Panasonic (certainly mostly for Tesla)
2. CATL (Chinese)
3. BYD (Chinese)
4. LG Chem
5. Samsung
Btw, will be interesting how the child labor cobalt discussion plays out in Germany.
It is China, after all, that buys it in the DRC's markets etc. w/o asking where it came from.
For ex., CBS News finds children mining cobalt for batteries in the Congo

The children's cobalt is brought to a large market where it is bought by a Chinese company for extremely low prices. CBS News wanted to see whether there was any attempt to check at the market whether the cobalt had been mined by children, so Patta's team went back later, with a hidden camera.

When we offered to sell a truck load of cobalt, nobody asked us who mined the mineral, only what the quality was. One man told us that the Chinese traders at the market bought all the cobalt and sold it mainly to one Chinese company, Congo Dongfang Mining, known locally as CDM.
 
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