TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Drumheller]

That's the human-nature side of the problem. Quite a few folks simply can't disregard off-topic posts, and are too lazy to start a new thread to respond.

From 1999 to 2006, I setup several online communities, both personally and professionally as part of my business. Many of those communities had users that were children. They understood how forum software worked and that each thread is its own topic, and that a healthy community has many active topics with new topics being created regularly.

So, I see that children using forums in those years had more self control than many of the adults using this forum. I find some of the other topics interesting, but when I click on a thread named "Market Action", I'm looking to read posts regarding market action, not politics, not logistics of war, not how trains work, not how global warming works, not how house pricing works, not how fiat money works, not the history of the gold standard, etc. If I wanted to read about those, I'd open a thread with one of those topics.

I'm going to continue disagreeing with posts that are very off topic. If the mods decide to vacation or ban me, I'll accept that. At least some action would be taken.

 

[sweter]

Slightly related to MA: Is anyone else's Apple Stock app not updating? Both on iPhone and on my Mac. Gives me anxiety.

 

[elasalle]

Slightly related to MA: Is anyone else's Apple Stock app not updating? Both on iPhone and on my Mac. Gives me anxiety.

Ya mine wasn't, so today I removed the widget all together

 

[tivoboy]

Slightly related to MA: Is anyone else's Apple Stock app not updating? Both on iPhone and on my Mac. Gives me anxiety.

this was happening yesterday, I really wouldn't rely on it at all for stock quotes. Get something with a true real trim tracking and alerting mechanism. Not sure if the issue was icloud based or the feed they use to support the apple stocks app (which is Yahoo finance and their partners I believe)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

@tivoboy I've come to rely on your daily read of SP mvmt. What do you read in the last 3 days weakness of TSLA?

Three days of weakness? We are exactly where we were three days ago

 

[Artful Dodger]

Slightly related to MA: Is anyone else's Apple Stock app not updating? Both on iPhone and on my Mac. Gives me anxiety.

NASDAQ's realtime page is updating.

AAPL Apple Inc. Common Stock
Real Time Stock Quotes
$178.59 -2.352 -1.3%
Real-Time - data as of 11/29/2018 1:48:25 PM

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

From 1999 to 2006, I setup several online communities, both personally and professionally as part of my business. Many of those communities had users that were children. They understood how forum software worked and that each thread is its own topic, and that a healthy community has many active topics with new topics being created regularly.

So, I see that children using forums in those years had more self control than many of the adults using this forum. I find some of the other topics interesting, but when I click on a thread named "Market Action", I'm looking to read posts regarding market action, not politics, not logistics of war, not how trains work, not how global warming works, not how house pricing works, not how fiat money works, not the history of the gold standard, etc. If I wanted to read about those, I'd open a thread with one of those topics.

I'm going to continue disagreeing with posts that are very off topic. If the mods decide to vacation or ban me, I'll accept that. At least some action would be taken.

OK no more off topic posts, starting now....

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Both the 10x increase and that it would be enough is a claim by Musk/Tesla only. He's been exceptionally wrong about the requirements for FSD before so it is simply not reasonable to accept it at face value and conclude that 'every Tesla is effectively FSD capable'.

When we don't take legacy automakers claims about their next supposedly wonderful upcoming EV cars as unequivocal truth after having disappointing us by scrapping earlier concepts, then we should apply the same standard to Tesla.

Of course, we should also apply the same skepticism to all other automaker's/system makers claims of autonomous features that have not been extensively tested by the public. Including Waymo, Cruise, MobileEye, etc.

 

[tivoboy]

Three days of weakness? We are exactly where we were three days ago

Well, I think he might mean that while the market and NSDQ are up 3.5+% in those three days, TSLA is either flat to down depending. so, I think I'd call it RELATIVE weakness as well. NWTHT

Per my post/note on Monday, the catalysts for the Mkt overall and Tesla were going to be the Fed statement Weds, and the G20 meeting over the weekend. Capturing the "next five trading days" would get to us Monday. While the Fed statement had the intended (and expected) impact on the overall equity and bond markets, it would appear that for Tesla at least we're more looking at the G20 meetings (Xi and Merkel more than anything) and discussions/decisions (there won't be any decisions imho here) about Auto Tariffs, both with China (nobody believes that's an issue here at least) and of course Europe. I think that COULD be an issue and is putting a cap on Tesla share price movement in the near term. We won't really have much interesting data prior to Q418 Sales/Deliveries/qr till early next year and I don't think the Dec sales report (looking back) will yield too much insight, at least not enough for people to take any significant action on. So, over the next few trading days through Monday, a well delivered statement from OI and XI (and possibly Merkel), could yield anywhere from 4-10% (yes, you read that right). At which point I'll be looking to sell Dec $375 for whatever I can get over about $25 (currently long a Dec $345 call so if I can get $25 during a pop, it will be a $5-$7 credit received for the 30$ spread.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well, I think he might mean that while the market and NSDQ are up 3.5+% in those three days, TSLA is either flat to down depending. so, I think I'd call it RELATIVE weakness as well. NWTHT

What's your take?

 

[dha]

Whoa boy is volume low. Following this stock for five years I've seen this play out many times. To me, this feels like TSLA coiling up tight, consolidating in the low 340s, waiting to explode upward on the next positive catalyst. My most profitable trade EVER was when I bought weekly calls during precisely this kind of price action, immediately before Jerome's famous "reckless growth" speech at the 2014 Detroit Auto Show. I will be looking to get into short-term calls if volume continues to be bone dry and the daily trading range narrows over the next few days.

Not an advice

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Thanks for that post. Really interesting.

If we look at the last Next Move German Cannonball race they have been trying to charge the 3 with 8% up to about 65% as an optimal situation to speed up charging with about 120 kwh. Considering at 75 kw battery of the 3 (LR) that's 42 KW. With i.e. 2 kWh we would need about 21 minutes and pay € 3.57 assuming you do have a charger for yourself. Sometimes it took where other cars been around up to 30 minutes which is slightly more expensive.

Thats for someone like me that likes driving fast with some more but short stops the best strategy.

Thats quite impressive. Just compare that with my usual €80 - €90 bills I paid so far for my former gas car which relates to about 3 times charging with the 3 for about € 12 in that scenario. Maybe optimistic but even with € 20 you are below 25% of the usual costs.

Thats a no brainer and does not even factor in the costs the emissions created which the entire society pays the one or other way... some with a destroyed house due to a hurricane, fire or flood the other with lung cancer or asthma.

(German)

Interesting. Where did they get a Model 3 for this cannonball race in Germany - just ship one over from the US? It looks like it can be seen supercharging around 5:20. There may be some kind of Tesla "modified" Type 2 (EU) to Tesla Proprietary (NA) adapter sandwiched onto the car (I'm assuming, what else could it be - that or a Type 2 to Type 2 CCS adapter).

 

[Cartegena]

The preceding is a fair candidate for the juiciest leading question in the past 100 pages or so.

HG Wells has it in a nutshell; the following rather rhetorical questions represent other reasons to consider why:

1. What country is the world's single largest automotive market?
2. What country has provided the most consistent and the strongest incentives for electric vehicles?
3. What company has demonstrated multiple times it is playing the long game, and will take a short-term hit to further its long-term goals every time?

OK. I was just thinking that, since Tesla can sell all the S's & X's produced at full price in other markets, it might be better to use profits from those sales to accelerate local production at GF3 near Shanghai so neither Tesla nor its Chinese customers would have to pay the tariffs over the long term.

 

[Menifeer]

Whoa boy is volume low. Following this stock for five years I've seen this play out many times. To me, this feels like TSLA coiling up tight, consolidating in the low 340s, waiting to explode upward on the next positive catalyst. My most profitable trade EVER was when I bought weekly calls during precisely this kind of price action, immediately before Jerome's famous "reckless growth" speech at the 2014 Detroit Auto Show. I will be looking to get into short-term calls if volume continues to be bone dry and the daily trading range narrows over the next few days.

Not an advice

I'll be the one selling you those short-term Calls...

 

[Buckminster]

See, that just says that they needed the hardware for the large neural networks, not that those neural networks would be sufficient in and of themselves for FSD. And contending that they are is ignoring many issues, not least of which FSD requires more than radar/lidar/sonar + steering/accelerating/braking. The neural networks are for vision, a necessary component and maybe the vision has gotten "good enough". But even if that is the case, it is not sufficient to enable FSD.

And I go back to my point about incremental deployment of FSD-like features. Which isn't even speculative -- that is exactly what Tesla has been doing. Each new feature is another component supporting an FSD solution.

For market purposes I think it is sufficient to identify that Tesla:

1. is actively working on FSD
2. that they have more instrumented miles driven
3. develop cutting edge hardware
4. prove out their features in a semi-public fashion

Waymo isn't really a competitor to Tesla, but in comparison all they have to show is #1, though they are making some progress on #4. Certainly any competitor could do #3, but no one comes even close on #2.

I saw mention recently of Waymo and it was bragging on their exponential growth of instrumented miles driven. Which is not only a minute speck of a fraction of Tesla's, but Tesla's is also growing exponentially. For me, #2 is probably the most persuasive reason for believing that Tesla will achieve FSD first.

Maybe wearing my permanent Elon tinted glasses but vision based neural net feels like the right solution and Tesla are doing it perfectly (Agile Silicon Valley style - no Big Bang release).

I kinda defended Fred previously but placing a Rivian order just seems plain wrong. He has not mentioned lack of AP, supercharging etc. If he ends up buying one and doing 5000 miles plus on it I will retract my comment.
Closer look at Rivian’s R1T all-electric pickup truck and why I ordered it

I predict 345 at close.

 

[KarenRei]

We're hovering around the middle of a range that's been traded for quite a while. No real news. Anyone who's wanted to make trading moves probably already has.

 

[KarenRei]

I kinda defended Fred previously but placing a Rivian order just seems plain wrong. He has not mentioned lack of AP, supercharging etc. If he ends up buying one and doing 5000 miles plus on it I will retract my comment.
Closer look at Rivian’s R1T all-electric pickup truck and why I ordered it

I predict 345 at close.

Will he be funding his purchase with one of the free Teslas he's been given? :Þ

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This GM fiasco is probably a good thing for TSLA, it's pulled the EV subsidy conversation forward by months.

Most likely outcome is a Congressional enhancement/extension to the existing structure. Announcement of the game plan would give TSLA a nice breakout bump.

Then 4Q earrings land....

Then Model Y announcements.....

 

[anthonyj]

Bought 100 shares at 342.87 for the LMR (last minute rip). Seems to have been the trend on low volume days like this. Have been doing this for the past few weeks with success. It’s been paying for my Chipotle and daily massages! Now if only my January/March calls would stop bleeding.

 

[Todd Burch]

We are tracking to a bit over 1/3 the volume of an average TSLA day. Real light. In fact, I'm going to go buy 100 shares and shoot the price up fifty bucks.