TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[printf42]

OT alert:
Drunk driver fall asleep on autopilot traveling 70mph.
Tesla driver was pulled over by cops after allegedly sleeping drunk on Autopilot for 7 miles

These are the report of the same incident I found so far:
BI:Police in the San Francisco Bay Area took an unusual approach to stop a Tesla operating on Autopilot as a drunk driver slept behind the wheel
INC: California Cops Figured Out How to Stop a Tesla in Autopilot While the Driver Slept Behind the Wheel
Fortune:Man Arrested for Drunk Driving after Officers Found Him Asleep in Tesla Running in Autopilot Mode
NYdailynews:Drunk driver caught sleeping behind wheel of Tesla sedan driving 70 mph on freeway, California cops allege - NY Daily News
SFGate:https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/Drunk-driver-slept-while-Tesla-drove-Hwy-101-on-13435295.php
NYPost:https://nypost.com/2018/12/01/drunk-official-fell-asleep-while-inside-tesla-on-auto-pilot-cops/

And link to Google news with more coverage links:
https://news.google.com/stories/CAA...H0KHfT-Ac8QqgIILjAA&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

I am surprised to find that not a single one I read had tried to spin this as negative for TSLA, they all praised quick-witted Police officers, and warned readers Autopilot is not self-driving(yet).
So can we say tide had turned now?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

7,000 M3 (approx)
1,000-1,500 S (Approx)
1,000-1,500 X (Approx)

36k - 40k per month.

What’s the lol for?

The tweet reads "And they are selling 40,000 cars a month.", which is crazy high. They are probably around ~30k/month. Model 3 production is nowhere near a steady 7k/week.

Sorry -
While Tesla said they achieved 5000 a week in June, if we look at production in July, August, Sept and October they have averaged 4238/week or about 15% short of the June target. So I believe the 7000 is a burst rate and nowhere close to the sustained rate.

Not only that, but they haven't even bursted 7k. Some lines hit a 7k/week extrapolated UPH rate.

I hate overly bullish predictions, almost as much as the ridiculous FUD posted on Seeking Alpha.

Seconded.

 

[Hock1]

First of all it’s mr chickenlittle
Second the share price would increase since it would not happen immediately upon announcement and may even require share holder approval and I would convert my options into shares which could be accomplished with simple phone call

Okay then. You think you would exercise your options and own the stock. I know this is all very hypothetical, but after exercising, do you think you would become a long-term holder of the stock, or would you go back to options? See where I'm going with this?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Whoa dudes. The 40k is just a rough ballpark and not a prediction at all.

The guy was just making the point that Tesla is selling a lot of cars still purely through word-of-mouth advertising. Whether the actual number is 32k or 40k is tangential to his point.

Yes 40k is on the high side, but it’s ballpark and still serves the point he was trying to make—that Tesla sells a lot of cars and doesn’t even advertise in the traditional sense.

Just didn’t seem lol-worthy to me.

He also said TSLA is gapping up $50 dollars tomorrow ... is that lol-worthy?

 

[KarenRei]

He also said TSLA is gapping up $50 dollars tomorrow ... is that lol-worthy?

I'd love to sell him some calls I'll give him a great deal on some one-of-a-kind 3 December '18 $380s.

 

[Todd Burch]

He also said TSLA is gapping up $50 dollars tomorrow ... is that lol-worthy?

Ok, yes, that probably is. Although stranger things have happened.

 

[Reciprocity]

Hi,

Model 3 might reach 7K/wk something during Dec, it certainly is not at that rate right now, and that'll likely be an end-of-quarter burst rate too.

Model S/X is in a steady state at 1,000 - 1,050 units per week.

1,500 Model S/X weekly production rate is not in current plans. It's not just the Japanese 18650 bty cell limit, it's everything else in the supply chain as well. Tesla talked about this in one of the Conference Calls.

Tesla is likely near 6K/wk total production right now with the start of L3MUR production, and is striving for 7K/wk by year end. That's total vehicle rate of 32K/mth now, striving for a 36K/mth burst rate in Dec.

40K/mth (8,000 M3/wk + 2K S/X) is still some time off. I haven't heard any concrete plans to take Fremont over 7-8K/wk M3s in recent updates.

Tesla seems to think the best use of CapEx is to expand Shanghai first. Then I suspect GF4/Benelux will be next, even before Fremont goes beyond 7-8K/wk M3s.

Then, I think Model Y production will be the next major planned CapEx for N. America, all w/o taking Model 4 beyond 7-8K/wk run rate at Fremont. Although, worldwide Model 3 production could be 17-23K/wk by then (2022?)

Cheers!

A month is more then 4 weeks. Model S/X closer to 2500/w recently which was also attached way back in 2016. More then likely due to tax credit demand, or the thought that there would be more demand this QTR. But at the end is the day, why argue, the point is that Tesla is not as well known as Apple and Google and it will be soon.

 

[Open Interest]

You can strongly disagree all you want. I have 50 years experience as an investor and 25 years as a broker/money manager. I am telling you valuable information. If you don't choose to follow, that's up to you. I have made a life of making big bets on potentially disruptive companies by buying and holding stock for the long term. I have found that it is a rare person who can do this. I have made as much as 30X. I learned that there is no way that you trade anything, options or stock, and beat holding for the long term. Tesla is a stock for the century. I am quite sure, contingent on a lot of things, that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company in the next 5-8 years. That's 16 times today's price. If you keep with your strategy, and you're an exceptional trader, you might double your money. I commend everyone on this board for finding and believing in Tesla. Unfortunately, a small percentage will participate in the wealth that this company will build. GLTA

Of course, it doesn’t have to be an either/or proposition. Many posters maintain a core position with trading shares as well; others will add options to the mix. Personally I find the different approaches fascinating and I follow the strategic discussions avidly.

 

[kevinM]

As BMW i3 range extender and its issues show, this is not very useful. You need to be able to drive on freeways - uphill. You need to be able to go intercity. Essentially it should be a full fledged car - not a toy car.

I agree to a point about the I3 that I own. You just need to keep it in its place it is a second intercity car. Similar to a mini cooper that it shares parts with. Very different however. I love my P85+ it is a super lux rocket. But the I3 is just so cute! Not macho in any way. (I have no issues in that area with 6 kids) think of it as an electric Mini and you start to understand. By the way it will go uphill with the highway on Generator it just uses some battery in the process. And without coding you can start the generator early at any time.

I consider it my toy.

Just as my 70 MGB,90 Miata, Mini S convertible, 69 911s,68 912 all were. But it has so much more to play with. Esys is a fun challenge.


It doesn't like getting washed!

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/O...Nep6PXQc1n-xYPt0zp8FKVdqjp1SQ=w1247-h702-k-no

Lets keep having fun,

Kevin


When demand exceeds supply you get growth. That is the right condition for stock appreciation. A lot of shareholders are going to be very happy tomorrow and for years to come. I love it when shorts get burned!

 

[neroden]

OT

Newbies should stick to buying calls. Good post.

Newbies should stay the hell out of options. I'd invested in individual stocks for *over 20 years* before I started doing options trades at all.

(The tax consequences alone are something newbies should avoid.)

 

[neroden]

OT

Could someone remind me of the default settlement?

Take the volume-weighted average stock price in February.

First of all, if this is below $359.87, everyone will elect to be paid off in cash anyway. Tesla pays the principal ($920 million) off and pays the last interest payment.

If it's higher, you calculate how many shares of stock you'd get from an all-stock conversion, then divide it by the volume-weighted average stock price in February to get a dollar amount for the total payoff. By default, the principal is then paid off in cash ($920 million). This is subtracted from the total payoff to give the "excess" amount in dollars. The "excess" amount is then divided by the volume-weighted average stock price to get a number of shares, and that number of shares is issued.

Clear as mud?

 

[neroden]

OT

Eh... beware of Vox. I don't know which one I dislike more now, Electrek or Vox.

It's easy to get deceived when they keep saying stuff that sounds good, but sometimes it's hard to tell when they go off into crazy town. Not worth the mental effort to double check every time. Not getting into the specifics here.

Well, I double-check *everything*. I've found a much better hit rate with Vox (it checks out a lot more often) than I have with most general-interest media, and even some special-interest media.

If you start with Sturgeon's Law (90% of everything is crap), you can develop some reasonable standards.

 

[neroden]

OT

Neither of those examples were ratified treaties (same goes for Kyoto, before anyone brings that up).

Oh yes the Iran Treaty of Amity was ratified.

Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights (United States–Iran) - Wikipedia

 

[neroden]

OT

Saudi Contractor Defaults on $2 Billion of Debt
SA seeing first signs of trouble of falling oil price?

Yeeeowch. Due to the Interior Ministry not paying them on time? Yeeeowch.

This is the *second* time they've done this, having done it in 2015 and driven several contractors bankrupt then? Eeeeewwww.... seems like they're as bad as Trump for not payin their contractors...

Maybe we should take this over to the "Shorting Oil" thread?

 

[neroden]

So if I understand this correctly, to have a VW-like short squeeze on TSLA, somebody actually needs to try to takeover TSLA?

No. Somene just has to try to "corner" the stock. This is often done for the purposes of a takeover, but can be done for other reasons. Musk trying to buy another 30% of the outstanding shares to keep control would do the trick, for instance.

 

[neroden]

OT

What if I buy LEAPS and blindly roll them every year. Instead of 16x, I can make 48x.

Paying -- in the high brackets -- about 50% taxes each time you roll them, instead of paying no taxes indefinitely and then 20% when you happen to sell a little bit. When you start looking at the long term, the value of the indefinitely-deferred taxation adds up. To a lot.

This is why my optiion sales are actually for *current income* (vs. buying stock I'd have to sell in the same or next year), while my long-term investments are either stock, or LEAPS which I intend to execute (thus deferring taxation).

This is in after-tax accounts. Rolling options may make more sense in tax-deferred accounts, which is something I haven't thought about as much as I should.

 

[EVNow]

No. Somene just has to try to "corner" the stock. This is often done for the purposes of a takeover, but can be done for other reasons. Musk trying to buy another 30% of the outstanding shares to keep control would do the trick, for instance.

But Musk can't buy shares without disclosing first, right ?

Ofcourse if he discloses and the price shoots up - so he won't actually buy - then people will say fraud.

 

[j0hn]

Trump on twitter :

China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%.

 

[ggr]

Donald J. Trump on Twitter
Claims that China has reduced import duty on US cars. This has to be good for Tesla since most cars imported to China from the US are Teslas.

 

[SpaceCash]

But but but