TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Paying -- in the high brackets -- about 50% taxes each time you roll them

You can actually buy J'20 and roll them one day after a year (i.e. if I buy it on Dec 3, 2018 - roll on Dec 4 2019). This would be considered a long term cap gain. Ofcourse you have to pay 23.8% taxes - instead of the not paying till after 5/8 years. J'19 C500 for eg gives about 4x leverage, which will help you make 3x even after paying long term cap gains tax every year.

 

[AudubonB]

(C'mon RobStark! We need your list of how many cars are exported to China from which companies!)

It would be even more important to learn just what "reduce" means?
By 1%?
Rolling back to what it was before this ridikulus trade war started?
To zero?

 

[EVNow]

Donald J. Trump on Twitter
Claims that China has reduced import duty on US cars. This has to be good for Tesla since most cars imported to China from the US are Teslas.

This is definitely good news for Tesla. If true (or atleast not proven wrong) should push TSLA up $10 tomorrow. If Nasdaq futures being up 2.2% holds, will we see $370 ? I'd not rule it out - atleast as a intraday high, if not close.

 

[neroden]

So, Trump is the cause of the tarriffs going up to 40%. Now he's claiming (and since it's Trump, we have no idea whether it's true) that China is going to (some time in the future) lower the tarriffs again.

Let's file this in the "I'll believe it when I see it" department -- the 40% tarriffs are still in place as of today -- and also in the "proably returning to status quo ante" department -- China will probably end up with the tarriff level they had before Trump started shooting his mouth off about tarriffs.

 

[pz1975]

This is definitely good news for Tesla. If true (or atleast not proven wrong) should push TSLA up $10 tomorrow. If Nasdaq futures being up 2.2% holds, will we see $370 ? I'd not rule it out - atleast as a intraday high, if not close.

I hope there is a MMD tomorrow - I'll be buying weekly calls for the first time in forever.

 

[neroden]

You can actually buy J'20 and roll them one day after a year (i.e. if I buy it on Dec 3, 2018 - roll on Dec 4 2019). This would be considered a long term cap gain. Ofcourse you have to pay 23.8% taxes - instead of the not paying till after 5/8 years. J'19 C500 for eg gives about 4x leverage, which will help you make 3x even after paying long term cap gains tax every year.

Yeah, but there, with OTM options you're taking the leverage by taking big risks if the stock languishes.

Try calculating it with safe DITM LEAPS, perhaps $200 strike price, which is what you'd use as "stock replacement" LEAPS. You get about 2x leverage (maybe 3x) but you end up eating 23.8% plus state taxes (here, 6 or 8% in the higher brackets) every year, which turns out to be a bad deal after a few years.

I've bought a few LEAPs for leverage with the intention of exercising before expiration, deferring taxation indefinitely. I still intend to; it's effectively a two-year loan costing whatever the initial time value was, so I benchmarked it against then-current loan rates, and it seemed reasonable. I've bought a few for the leverage in my Roth, where the taxes aren't a consideration, which I will sell or roll.

 

[dmunjal]

So, Trump is the cause of the tarriffs going up to 40%. Now he's claiming (and since it's Trump, we have no idea whether it's true) that China is going to (some time in the future) lower the tarriffs again.

Let's file this in the "I'll believe it when I see it" department -- the 40% tarriffs are still in place as of today -- and also in the "proably returning to status quo ante" department -- China will probably end up with the tarriff level they had before Trump started shooting his mouth off about tarriffs.

I remember there was a window this year where there were 15% tariffs on Tesla cars imported into China and Tesla sold out. Zero would be amazing.

China slashes auto import tariffs in boost to BMW, Tesla | Reuters

 

[Carl Raymond]

The price of withdrawal is ill will and eroded trust internationally.

Off Topic

I see we have a 'disagree'. Here's a bit of supporting evidence:

"In an apparent response to President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord, residents in Wellington, New Zealand’s capital, signalled their disapproval as Mr Tillerson’s motorcade passed through the city."

'I've never seen so many people flip the bird at a US motorcade' - New Zealanders give Rex Tillerson the middle finger

 

[dmunjal]

I hope there is a MMD tomorrow - I'll be buying weekly calls for the first time in forever.

Many I follow said they were short into the weekend expecting bad or no news. Short covering will intensify tomorrow.. Nasdaq +200?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Anyone catch Elon’s tweet that got deleted? Something about someone is right...

 

[Singuy]

So, Trump is the cause of the tarriffs going up to 40%. Now he's claiming (and since it's Trump, we have no idea whether it's true) that China is going to (some time in the future) lower the tarriffs again.

Let's file this in the "I'll believe it when I see it" department -- the 40% tarriffs are still in place as of today -- and also in the "proably returning to status quo ante" department -- China will probably end up with the tarriff level they had before Trump started shooting his mouth off about tarriffs.

Right on cue. Crazy how I said he'll do exactly this political BS just two days ago.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[Drumheller]

Off Topic

I see we have a 'disagree'. Here's a bit of supporting evidence:

"In an apparent response to President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord, residents in Wellington, New Zealand’s capital, signalled their disapproval as Mr Tillerson’s motorcade passed through the city."

'I've never seen so many people flip the bird at a US motorcade' - New Zealanders give Rex Tillerson the middle finger

I disagreed because it has nothing to do with the topic of this thread. I'm going to continue giving disagrees to off topic posts.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah, but there, with OTM options you're taking the leverage by taking big risks if the stock languishes.

Yes - but the original post talked about 16x stock gain in 5 to 8 years. Assuming this to be the case - even if in a particular year you lose a bit of money, you would make more by buying OTM LEAPS. I'll post some calculation once I get to it.

 

[X Fan]

Anyone have a SWAG on closing share price tomorrow?

I’m thinking $370....

 

[EVNow]

I disagreed because it has nothing to do with the topic of this thread. I'm going to continue giving disagrees to off topic posts.

Oh - that's why I got some disagrees too ?

I'm all for keeping this thread purely about short term market action, as I posted earlier.

 

[Thekiwi]

Off Topic

I see we have a 'disagree'. Here's a bit of supporting evidence:

"In an apparent response to President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord, residents in Wellington, New Zealand’s capital, signalled their disapproval as Mr Tillerson’s motorcade passed through the city."

'I've never seen so many people flip the bird at a US motorcade' - New Zealanders give Rex Tillerson the middle finger

We Wellingtonians have a distinct lack of respect for dickheads in supposed positions of authority.

 

[SteveG3]

Trump on twitter :

China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%.

“reduce and remove tariffs on cars”

hmm... would be nice if it turns out this means reduce ICE tariffs, remove EV tariffs.

 

[Yonki]

Anyone catch Elon’s tweet that got deleted? Something about someone is right...

Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

 

[neroden]

Yes - but the original post talked about 16x stock gain in 5 to 8 years. Assuming this to be the case - even if in a particular year you lose a bit of money, you would make more by buying OTM LEAPS. I'll post some calculation once I get to it.

I guess your scheme is to always buy 2-year LEAPs and roll when they're down to 1 year, which makes sense. You can still get eaten alive on volatility shifts, however. Or on a buyout offer which is one dollar below your strike price.

I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad strategy -- I'm saying it has hidden risks you haven't considered. Risks which stock ownership (or even DITM LEAPs) don't have.

 

[EVNow]

OT alert:
I am surprised to find that not a single one I read had tried to spin this as negative for TSLA, they all praised quick-witted Police officers, and warned readers Autopilot is not self-driving(yet).
So can we say tide had turned now?

If Tesla can figure out when the driver has slept off and alerts him it would be great. If he doesn't respond slowly pull over and alert emergency services. Tesla can collaborate with smart watch makers on this.