TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[arne-nl]

Anyone concerned about emails from Tesla promising EOY delivery and 7500 tax credit if you order now?

Not sure how to process this.

Yup! me. (but I worry easily :/ )

But I am not at all worrying for Tesla's outlook, only for the way this will be spun by shorters/msm. Imo the US market for a sedan starting at $ 38.5 k (with tax credit factored in) is not big enough to absorb current output of the factory, and so this was to be expected. Tesla needs the exports to Europe/China.

I'd like to take the positive view: it is very well possible that factory output grew faster than they anticipated. They massaged the clientele into believing they couldn't satisfy demand (first deadline was Oct 15) and now they are producing more vehicles than expected.

 

[Remus]

Except NASA uses the metric system

 

[abasile]

Can't imagine having a spuse to interfere with decision making in investments.

Many of the major discoveries I came upon happened very fast. Also, sudden dips that happens in tsla does not wait around for the consensus of a second person.

My wife doesn't get involved in the minutia of my investing activities on our behalf. She is well aware of my overall approach, and I appreciate being able to solicit her opinion. If I've done a relatively large transaction, I'll generally at least tell her after the fact.

The key here is trust. While we understand that neither of us is perfect, we trust one another to be trying to pursue the long term best interests of our family. It takes time and patience to build trust in a marriage, but it's totally worth it.

I would never consider making a large purchase (car, consumer good, etc.) without consulting my wife, even if I'm sure she'd agree. It's a matter of respect.

 

[SebastianR]

Says nothing about deposit back, although obviously that is part of the deal. Just order now and get yours delivered before the end of the year.

Making the offer obviously is not a risk to Tesla. The question is why?

Why would Tesla calculate that it could deliver ANY new orders with two weeks left in the year?

I have no idea if this is good/bad. However, I know we have seen this before: Last time I saw it, Tesla had a blow-out quarter and literally no inventories left afterwards. Last time there was also a lot of complaint about "unfair discounts" involved. Shorts were shocked.

What we do know is that at the end of the year Tesla pulls out all stops and literally every (legal) trick in the book to make a sale/delivery. There will be many posts with much speculation and usually you have a special conspiracy theory about Tesla's demand collapsing ("why else would they push their stuff so aggressively?!?").

Two things though: a) if you are in the market for a new Tesla, go for it now. I bet your chances of getting a deal will be particularly good over the coming 2 weeks - also beware that the US market might be starved for the coming months as Tesla has 3 months to deliver to China and promised Europe huge numbers of cars... b) I'm still amazed we don't see any "Supercharging for life!" offers now. This tells me that demand can't be that bad...

 

[ZsoZso]

.....

“In the next three years alone, VW plans to build five cars with this concept. The Neo will be followed by a crossover in the Tiguan format in 2020, before the E-Bulli ID Buzz and a sedan as successor to the Phaeton will be available.

Oh, I'm sure that model will achieve great market penetration in the red-neck woods, just based on the name alone

 

[KarenRei]

"FS_FRA, post: 3272396, member: 84886"

.....

“In the next three years alone, VW plans to build five cars with this concept. The Neo will be followed by a crossover in the Tiguan format in 2020, before the E-Bulli ID Buzz and a sedan as successor to the Phaeton will be available.

Oh, I'm sure that model will achieve great market penetration in the red-neck woods, just based on the name alone

Seriously, that one in particular ("E-Bulli ID Buzz") belongs in the annals of terrible names.

 

[Ugliest1]

Except NASA uses the metric system

I think the US military does too

 

[mongo]

Says nothing about deposit back, although obviously that is part of the deal. Just order now and get yours delivered before the end of the year.

Making the offer obviously is not a risk to Tesla. The question is why?

Why would Tesla calculate that it could deliver ANY new orders with two weeks left in the year?

Cars are continuously being moved to delivery locations. This setup allows Tesla access to the largest pool of purchasers by removing risk on the purchaser's side. Only want a 3 if you get 7,500 off? Place your order and take your chances.

 

[KarenRei]

The magazine is not called "Spiegel", it is "Der Speigel" meaning "The Mirror".

Huh, I never caught that until now! (Icelandic: Spegill = Mirror - "Hér er spegill, um spegil, frá spegli til spegils...")

 

[AudubonB]

Mod:
5 GF3 posts moved to the GF3 Development thread.

 

[AudubonB]

The magazine is not called "Spiegel", it is "Der Speigel" meaning "The Mirror". It's kind of a German version of Time Magazine. I used to enjoy reading it when I lived in Zurich.

Huh, I never caught that until now! (Icelandic: Spegill = Mirror - "Hér er spegill, um spegil, frá spegli til spegils...")

This, by the way, is why in the past ummmm....certain posters....have used "smoke & mirrors" and "look to thyself", and other such references when prodding MBSpiegel. Just an FYI.

 

[FS_FRA]

The magazine is not called "Spiegel", it is "Der Speigel" meaning "The Mirror". It's kind of a German version of Time Magazine. I used to enjoy reading it when I lived in Zurich.

....correct. I might go back and edit my post....


However Der Spiegel is incredibly biased against Tesla....they never miss a chance for FUD.mi

Used to enjoy reading them on a daily basis. Now not so much....

 

[SebastianR]

OT

....correct. I might go back and edit my post....

However Der Spiegel is incredibly biased against Tesla....they never miss a chance for FUD.mi

Used to enjoy reading them on a daily basis. Now not so much....

Yes, Der Spiegel (just like the majority of other German news media) is pretty horribly biased against Tesla. Der Spiegel also used to be incredibly anti wind power.

Back to market movements: I expect this week to be a slightly less volume week and next week essentially a "no volume at all week", then we have the delivery figures.

So I expect a bit of a mini-copy of last week (i.e. slightly stronger opening on Monday, down on Friday). I expect the week after to be pretty brutal and a bit of a pop once we hear the delivery numbers. In absence of any other news (and there usually is some news when I least expect it) between now and the earnings call I expect TSLA to be lowest in the coming 15 days. Then again, I'm not really good at this, I don't know more than other esteemed members of this forum and I'm frequently wrong in all walks of life and especially in all matters TSLA ;-)

What is everyone else's take?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Most I-Paces that are being built are going to The Netherlands, where the tax laws are changing on 1 January, making the more expensive EV's fiscally less attractive. This not only results in record sales for Model S and X, but also for the I-Pace. Over 1000 have been delivered in two months time and they are supposed to deliver another 2,500 this year (delivery hell anybody?).

This also makes our country a 'pioneer' in discovering the flaws of this car. There are many complaints already. Just one example (credit to Edi99):

Unread post by LennyNijland » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:01 pm
Love driving this car and I thinks it is beautiful. I’m Dutch by the way. Received the car Tuesday and have had many issues since: no or incorrect milage data, the radio switched on by itself after locking the car and couldn’t be switched of anymore, the mid console switched off twice and doesn’t function until software is reloaded, charging at home is impossible as the car doesn’t connect (hence 2 hours of charging at fast charging stations!!) and at fast chargers the operator has to start the session remotely as the car keep on killing the sessions. The GPS module is not functioning resulting in a blocked Remote App as the car is listed as stolen. While loving the car, the whole experience so far has been a downright nuisance. I’ve spend an average of 2 hours a day to keep this care going, which is more than I drove on average a day as the range is disappointing tonsay the least. Anybody out there with similar experiences and an idea what Jaguar is doing to solve it?

Another interesting tidbit (credit to Hans Amsterdam): an Italian test of the range of the Smart, Leaf, Zoe, I-Pace, Kona and Model S. They drove all cars until they were empty. The result for the I-Pace was horrific: 315 km (193 miles). That car has a 95 kWh battery! The Model S 100D got to 533 km (327 miles)!

 

[KarenRei]

I expect some minor news re: Consumer Reports satisfaction numbers. Should be this week or next. Other news will be just random stuff, good or bad. I'm hoping for a bit of a decline because my bank finally sent out my SWIFT transfer to my IB account, but who knows

There's this balancing game going on, wherein everyone wants to be in Tesla for this slow squeeze that's been going on, but there's also going to be increasing amounts of temptation to profit-take on Tesla's rise to gobble up other stocks depressed by this economic downturn.

Normally the market prices in deliveries pretty well, so I don't expect very serious movement on that. But there does seem to be some significant differences on bullish and bearish production estimates right now, so perhaps the results could provide some momentum to either the "stay for the short squeeze" or "profit-take"

 

[AndyH]

Exactly. I don't expect packing ever increasing numbers of people into the same space is going to drastically improve human behavior.

50 billion would be similar to the current population density of India. A lot less dense than the well functioning Greater Tokyo Area. Problem is resources. We could double right now by going vegan. More if we used the oceans better. Beyond that would involve some serious geo and genetic engineering.

Owning a car would be problematic but that's solved by autonomy. Tesla is working on the energy needed too. What's really missing is the totally tasty but still eco-friendly Tesla-cow.

 

[arne-nl]

Full spread on the Model 3 in the weekend edition of Dutch newspaper 'NRC Handelsblad' by Bas van Putten the first Dutch journalist to drive the Model 3 for more than a short tour around the block.

Highlights:
- Tested the LR AWD
- Obligatory mention production hell/early build quality/twitter drama, but very much to-the-point and neutral and mentions that this is all behind us now.
- Car achieves promised range
- Supercharging is slow (beginners error: arrives at supercharger with 220 miles of range and waits until charged fully)
- Sells like hotcakes in the US (test drive was around SF, that helps )
- Likes the overall design, simple, maybe a bit boring, but very practical
- Enough leg room in the back, head room not so much
- Acceptable fit and finish
- Less quiet than Model S/X
- More fun to drive than Model S/X
- With a bit more steering feel and a slightly better suspension it could rival fast BMW's (obviously he should test the performance version)
- Tesla is more of a club than a car brand
- Positive about the simplicity of the interior, no complaints about the lack of physical controls
- Comes away very impressed: Musk delivered!

(and two pages after that a review by the same journalist of the Hyundai Nexo HFC car. Not a single good word about hydrogen, totally made obsolete by the fast improving battery tech)

 

[Hock1]

"Then again, I'm not really good at this, I don't know more than other esteemed members of this forum and I'm frequently wrong in all walks of life and especially in all matters TSLA ;-)"

Save yourself some heartaches and a lot of money. Consider just buying the stock and holding for 3 years, no matter what. You will never be right often enough to make money in short term maneuvers. Long term results are binary: either you're right or your wrong. In the case of Tesla, If you're right you can build a lot of wealth that you would never be able to match trying to "play the market". GLTA.

 

[KarenRei]

Reminder: many people still haven't heard of Tesla - or even electric cars:

 

[EVNow]

I bring it up in conversation from time to time that we should be aiming for 70 billion. Most people get frightened about that claiming it's scary with that many humans. Many have a medieval view that wars and plagues will automatically begin to counter population growth. My response is always to mention some extraordinary humans like Elon and others since if we were to be 70 billion we could have 10 Elons instead of one. Not allowing 63 billion humans to be born is also a somewhat hateful behaviour.

We're already well on our way to have the technology to be able to sustain at least 70 billion and more. Technology will also improve exponentially as more and more humans get better education.

Then, why not 700 Billion ? or 700 Trillion ?

I suggest you visit the places that have high birth rates (sub-Saharan Africa) and then decide what is the best course for humanity.

You can't have infinite growth on a finite planet.