TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

50 billion would be similar to the current population density of India. A lot less dense than the well functioning Greater Tokyo Area. Problem is resources. We could double right now by going vegan. More if we used the oceans better. Beyond that would involve some serious geo and genetic engineering.

Owning a car would be problematic but that's solved by autonomy. Tesla is working on the energy needed too. What's really missing is the totally tasty but still eco-friendly Tesla-cow.

How would it be decided which people were given the opportunity to see inside the Sistine chapel? By auctioning the tickets or by lottery?

 

[KarenRei]

(Fred Alert - Tesla says someone fired a bullet into battery pack of a Model S that caught on fire)

Apparently one of the Model S battery fires (from back in December 31, 2014) was caused by a bullet fired from inside the vehicle. Owner John Schneider from Pennsylvania.

 

[adiggs]

I think you're misinterpreting.

That was in no way a criticism of the concept of you knowing more than the market. I was pointing out precisely the opposite thing: everyone here (including both you and I) thinks that they know more than the market consensus relative to Tesla. Otherwise, we wouldn't be here investing in it.

So, given this: why should people who think that they know more than the market consensus re: Tesla just take the market consensus's response to news at face value? Because that's what you're doing if you just adopt a "buy and hold" strategy.

Example 1: Elon does some interview and talks about how he's been working himself to death to make Tesla succeed, and mentions he uses Ambien to help himself sleep. The interviewer spins this as Musk going through a nervous breakdown and Tesla is going to collapse. The market consensus is: sell! The stock drops 5-10%. Do you agree with the market consensus that this is sell-worthy news?

Example 2: Tesla posts a quarterly report. Shock of all shocks, the imminent doom and gloom that the shorts have been talking about turns out to be utter BS. The market consensus is: we were wrong about the company, buy! The stock rises 5-10%. Do you agree that the company is suddenly 5-10% more valuable after the report, when all it did was confirm what you already knew?

Of course not in each case. And the logical response is thus that you should be selling when the market suddenly comes to realize something that you've known all along, and buying when they're freaking out about something that you know to be BS or ultimately meaningless.

Again, this doesn't mean day trading. But the point is: if you think you know more about the stock than the market consensus - which everyone here pretty much by definition does - then you should probably be swing trading on news. Offset by any downsides related to taxes and fees. The other caveat is that you need to model a reasonable estimate on volatility and general stock trends to know how much "random news" / overall trends will effect the stock over the period that you're maintaining liquidity, as liquidity doesn't realize gains / losses due to random news or overall trends.

GIVEN (the unstated assumption) that one is following the daily share price closely enough that one wants to be trading and timing these events as closely.

I agree with your central point - the company was neither 5-10% less valuable or more valuable after the two examples, and IF I were interesting in trying to time entry and exit more closely, then yeah - I might be able to make some money.

The opportunity cost is my time and energy, and my own personal reality is that I suck at market timing. Even when I get the big picture right, I usually get the direction wrong in the short term.


Therefore, another logical response to the two circumstances is to simply hold through both events given that neither event effects the long term buy and hold thesis. In this response, no money is lost on the market drop, and no money is earned on the market jump. And no personal energy was lost to the opportunity cost of watching it closely enough to recognize the opportunity.

In fact, using this response, I still haven't made (realized) any money on the original purchase of shares at ~$27.

 

[KarenRei]

How would it be decided which people were given the opportunity to see inside the Sistine chapel? By auctioning the tickets or by lottery?

AHEM.

MOD: ALL further demographic posts to go to the "Environment" forum on TMC. No more discussion here.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Tesla’s consistently producing 1300+ cars per day lately. That’s over 9,000/week. Hope that news gets out!

Source: a Tesla worker

She also said they are getting close to 1,400 in a day (S/X/3). I'm not sure why Tesla would still be pushing towards 8k per week model 3 production if they have exhausted the $45k+ Model 3 order book earlier than planned (as many seem to be speculating). I think the extension of Tesla's order deadline for 2018 delivery could just as well be explained by higher than expected production achieved in the past 3 weeks.
I still think it likely Tesla will shut down Fremont for the last week of the year, potentially preparing the lines for non premium interior and China/Europe production.

 

[Hock1]

I think you're misinterpreting.

That was in no way a criticism of the concept of you knowing more than the market. I was pointing out precisely the opposite thing: everyone here (including both you and I) thinks that they know more than the market consensus relative to Tesla. Otherwise, we wouldn't be here investing in it.

So, given this: why should people who think that they know more than the market consensus re: Tesla just take the market consensus's response to news at face value? Because that's what you're doing if you just adopt a "buy and hold" strategy.

Example 1: Elon does some interview and talks about how he's been working himself to death to make Tesla succeed, and mentions he uses Ambien to help himself sleep. The interviewer spins this as Musk going through a nervous breakdown and Tesla is going to collapse. The market consensus is: sell! The stock drops 5-10%. Do you agree with the market consensus that this is sell-worthy news?

Example 2: Tesla posts a quarterly report. Shock of all shocks, the imminent doom and gloom that the shorts have been talking about turns out to be utter BS. The market consensus is: we were wrong about the company, buy! The stock rises 5-10%. Do you agree that the company is suddenly 5-10% more valuable after the report, when all it did was confirm what you already knew?

Of course not in each case. And the logical response is thus that you should be selling when the market suddenly comes to realize something that you've known all along, and buying when they're freaking out about something that you know to be BS or ultimately meaningless.

Again, this doesn't mean day trading. But the point is: if you think you know more about the stock than the market consensus - which everyone here pretty much by definition does - then you should probably be swing trading on news. Offset by any downsides related to taxes and fees. The other caveat is that you need to model a reasonable estimate on volatility and general stock trends to know how much "random news" / overall trends will affect the stock over the period that you're maintaining liquidity, as liquidity doesn't realize gains / losses due to random news or overall trends.

I am definitely not misinterpreting. In my 50 years of "being in the market", I've tried many ways to make money, including exactly what you describe above. What I am trying to get across is that I've done all this. I had over 100 clients when I was a broker. That means that I observed over a 100 peoples' behavior, over many years, wrt the market. As "Cheshire Cat" said: " the hardest thing to do is to do nothing." In my experience, doing nothing is the most profitable, over time. I wish you luck with your strategy.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla’s consistently producing 1300+ cars per day lately. That’s over 9,000/week. Hope that news gets out!

Source: a Tesla worker

Can you link to where you got the info from? Or do you have a private source?

Anyway, @Teslike also estimates almost 6000 Model3 produced for the last 7 days:
Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #3

Last I remember was a bit more than 2000 S+X per week. Maybe Model 3 number has only increased in the last few days.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Can you link to where you got the info from? Or do you have a private source?

Anyway, @Teslike also estimates almost 6000 Model3 produced for the last 7 days:
Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #3

Last I remember was a bit more than 2000 S+X per week. Maybe Model 3 number has only increased in the last few days.

@VickiSalvador
She works in paint quality/paint repair at Fremont.

 

[Fact Checking]

This sounds familiar, like Nokia and Motorola:

Toyota struggles to save breakthrough Prius hybrid

Sales of the Prius have been tumbling for several years and were down 23.2 percent for the first 11 months of 2018. The new version delivers updates Toyota hopes will revive the hybrid's momentum, including a new all-wheel-drive system that could improve its appeal in the Snowbelt. But whether that will be enough is uncertain and company officials admit they're struggling to figure out what to do next.

There are a variety of reasons why Toyota sold just 3,180 of its Prius hatchbacks in November. Sales of the entire Prius "family," including a plug-in hybrid version, are running barely a quarter of its peak.

The article is listing myriads of potential reasons for the Prius's decline - but somehow fails to mention the #1 car company that is making cars which are even more green than a Prius, and without the compromises of a Prius!

The dreaded T-word is not mentioned in any of the 200+ user comments either. Has anyone tried to reply using the word "Tesla" or "battery" - are they actively filtered perhaps?

 

[avoigt]

@VickiSalvador
She works in pain quality/paint repair at Fremont.

Vicki is a reliable source and I assume her comment has been authorized. Elon is following her on Twitter.

She is an intentional leak I believe. Nothing spectacular just information Elon wants to get in the market...

Ed McCabe‏ @eddiemac3356
Replying to @VickiSalvador
How many cars this week Vicki?


1h1 hour ago
Replying to @eddiemac3356
A lot ! We’re consistently hitting 1300+ a day. Getting close to that 1400 mark.

Ed McCabe on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

I get that VW & Co. are "now investing into e-mobility" but I think it is too little effort and I wonder if it is too late.

Tesla isn't going to have 100% market share in North America.

Much less so in Europe. By hook or by crook. As we have seen the EU/Germany essentially confiscating the Supercharger Network in the name of "non-discriminatory access."

There is still opportunity for non-Tesla EV makers.

Even if that means VW is #2 in Europe in the future.

 

[Fact Checking]

@VickiSalvador
She works in pain quality/paint repair at Fremont.

Wow, indeed:

VICKI SALVADOR on Twitter

@eddiemac3356:

"How many cars this week Vicki?"​

@VickiSalvador:

"A lot ! We’re consistently hitting 1300+ a day. Getting close to that 1400 mark."​

@eddiemac3356:

"What variants?"​

@VickiSalvador:

"I think the quality has changed in the last week and paint is coming out super clean So repair time has been cut way down."​

The last reply from her was in part unprompted, but suggests further increases in efficiency and build quality.

The "getting close to 1,400" is more than 1,350/day - which would extrapolate to "more than 9,450/week Model S+3+X" output in Fremont.

Once they hit 1,400/day, it would map to 9,800/week.

Fantastic news!

 

[hobbes]

@VickiSalvador
She works in pain quality/paint repair at Fremont.

High quality pain in production hell .

(I see you corrected already but was documented in quote )

 

[Fact Checking]

As "Cheshire Cat" said: " the hardest thing to do is to do nothing." In my experience, doing nothing is the most profitable, over time. I wish you luck with your strategy.

I share that exact sentiment myself as well - but I'd also like to note that @KarenRei has called out most of her trades this year in advance of making them, and has a very good track record, calling several bottoms and tops.

She is definitely not day trading - she is at most "low intensity swing trading" with months between trades, while neither shorting nor using margin. Several times she has elected not to trade, despite being very close to good entry points - which is the right strategy so few are able to master.

(She also won one of the prestigious IOCCC's with a contest entry abusing a glibc macro bug in a clever way.)

I wish her good luck too, especially in the options space which is an added layer of complexity and emotional baggage to deal with.

 

[sparcs]

Wow, indeed:

VICKI SALVADOR on Twitter

@eddiemac3356:

"How many cars this week Vicki?"​

@VickiSalvador:

"A lot ! We’re consistently hitting 1300+ a day. Getting close to that 1400 mark."​

@eddiemac3356:

"What variants?"​

@VickiSalvador:

"I think the quality has changed in the last week and paint is coming out super clean So repair time has been cut way down."​

The last reply from her was in part unprompted, but suggests further increases in efficiency and build quality.

The "getting close to 1,400" is more than 1,350/day - which would extrapolate to "more than 9,450/week Model S+3+X" output in Fremont.

Once they hit 1,400/day, it would map to 9,800/week.

Fantastic news!

Hard to read into any numbers in a short period. It seems like Model 3 has been mostly in the 4300 per week for most of the quarter with various bursts of production throughout the quarter. At least from what I remember, the higher numbers have generally happened due to unsustainable burst production especially at the end of the quarter. Hard to say if they are currently in burst production or it's some overall new trend averaging higher.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Interesting, Norway doing deliveries on a Sunday. I wonder if the boat arrived late or they had some logistical difficulties, but this is very unusual - even Saturday deliveries are rare, but 142 yesterday

View attachment 361475

FWIW, I've never seen a Sunday delivery on teslastats.no in something like 2 years, so I agree with you, probably something happened.

 

[KarenRei]

As much as I like getting production numbers from her, I wish Vicki wasn't replying to @eddiemac3356. He's a vile short troll. His most recent tweet was, in response to Musk and Branson chatting to each other: "One great entrepreneur. One future convicted felon."

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tesla’s consistently producing 1300+ cars per day lately. That’s over 9,000/week. Hope that news gets out!

Source: a Tesla worker

Can you be more specific on the sourcing of this?

EDIT: Nevermind, continued reading and saw it was Vicki. One quick caveat to her numbers: they may apply to the paint shop only. The process could still easily be constrained by cell / pack construction or other points in the assembly process.

 

[hobbes]

Can you be more specific on the sourcing of this?

Come on, read at least the last page of the thread before asking!

@VickiSalvador
She works in paint quality/paint repair at Fremont.

 

[KarenRei]

Stuart Meissner may no longer be representing Tripp, but he still clearly hates TSLA longs:

Stuart D. Meissner Esq.‏ @StuartMeissner 23h23 hours ago
Apparently some wacko musketeers think they can file complaints to the SEC re others submitting tips about Tesla or any other company arguing it’s really some form of stock manipulation with crazy conspiracy theories ala shorts etc.Please go knock yourself out Crazy ppl out there

Got it everyone? The SEC tip line is only for shorts to use, dammit!

This is rather interesting, IMHO. It means that the SEC has apparently been talking with him, or someone he's working with, to investigate complaints about market manipulation by short sellers.