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Odds at this point are probably 60/40 RAISE IMHO.. A lower bips amount would be taken badly, it would mean we're weak and we go lower. if they DO it and say, we think we're in a good place and we're going to see what happens over the coming QUARTERS (not months, but quarters) then it puts in a floor. If they DO it and say - nothing to see here, we go down. If they DO it and say - going according to plan and more hikes coming, we go DOWN. (they won't say this).
for Tesla, we need more info on China and Europe. That is the bigger drive, and well SALES. We don't really have info on sales. I'd like to THINK that all these extensions, and "we have cars to sell from our saved allotment prior to fed tax credit cut", and we've bought trucking companies- without any info, I'd like to think that's all on the up and up, but a part of me thinks that the S carve might look like a lower case s at this point. Which is fine, but it makes it look weak.
Still bullish, just obviously, short term bearish positioned.
Why is the stock screen all red Todd!?! I don't know Margo!?!.....
tsunamiofhurt
Member
I think the probability of a blowout deliveries number is low. Also, recall what happened when we did get a blowout deliveries # last Q, all but guaranteeing profitability ... stock was trading at ~$300 when deliveries were released, less than a week later it had dropped to $250. On the flip side, if there's a Model 3 miss (anything less than last quarter), it will fall hard. Even though we all know that any demand pressure in Q4 would be very short lived. Q1 will be a step change increase, so long as they are able to get to Europe (70k+ Model 3).
For whatever reason, bull expectations for Q4 have been super high (IMO). Around the middle of the quarter, there was a high percentage of bulls that seemed to be expecting 100k deliveries (total). Most of the estimates people have been citing (InsideEVs, Troys model, Bloomberg) are all based on the same source data -- VINs. At the same time, sample rates have gone down, VIN gaps have materialized, and error bars are going up. All of this to say, I don't like the risk/reward of the Jan 1 "deliveries trade". I will do a full rundown of all of the data I'm using for my Q4 estimate at the end of the quarter. I can say this -- if we're trading at ATH and bulls are still expecting 65k+ Model 3s and I have strong reason to believe there could be a deliveries miss, I will be buying some short term puts.
2,500 shares in 2012?! I guess we know who will be hosting the $420 party ...
The Model S and X have benefited from incremental improvements since their inceptions, so this wouldn't be a significant concern for me.
A number of us do prefer the Model S over the Model 3, and if we were replacing our Model S, we'd be inclined toward a Model X.
Don't get me wrong - our Model 3 is a great car and we appreciate that, unlike our Model S, our Model 3 has AutoPilot and AWD. But the Model S has a more premium look, it is significantly roomier, and it's more comfortable for highway cruising. If we had to do it over again, it's hard to say, but we might have purchased a CPO Model S (2017 or late 2016, with AWD and AutoPilot) rather than a brand new Model 3. We have a good friend who just made a similar choice - she really prefers the Model S. Track mode? That's totally off our radar screen!
Tesla truly has a great product lineup today. The Model Y and Pickup will further increase sales, but the Model S and X have enduring appeal.
Gundlach sees a bear market and says chanos is one of the best investors ever
The amount of garbage people spew on CNBC
The amount of garbage people spew on CNBC
Everything has to be seen through ones filter and with as much ADDITIONAL information as possible, but from having met the man and know many people who work WITH him, not LISTENING to Gundlach and at least factoring in his thesis and calculus isn't wise. Chanos, not so much.
Disagree with his views on chanos,
And many other bogus predictions he has made in the past.
The iPhone replacement cycle is now 5 years, yeah right he knows.
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Well, I wouldn't listen to Gundlach on STOCKS, but the man does know fixed income in todays' world. they have preformed better than Pimco ever did. And, the way I analyze things, I have to look at everything. Global Macro, bonds, currencies, trade, global fixed income comparisons (biggest markets in the world.), so his short to medium term fixed income ability has to be brought into the discussion.
Problem with some of these people who are very strong in one area, they think everything thinks they need to be strong in ALL areas. That's just not necessary. It's a piece of the equation, get the best input for each piece and then build your own overall thesis.
Dreadnought
Member
Audi confirms: e-tron electric car delayed until 2019 - electrive.com
Now an Audi spokesman has confirmed to electrive.net that indeed there will be no market launch within the remaining two weeks of this year: “The first Audi e-tron deliveries are expected at the beginning of 2019”. What exactly this means remains unclear.
Now an Audi spokesman has confirmed to electrive.net that indeed there will be no market launch within the remaining two weeks of this year: “The first Audi e-tron deliveries are expected at the beginning of 2019”. What exactly this means remains unclear.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Gundlach+Chanos both don't mind if the entire market sinks. Because it will either bring TSLA down... or at least soften it a bit... before they get out of their massive short positions.
Yes, very different cars and not a surprise that model owners prefer the 3. If you poll 3 series and 5 series owners you would hear similar things.
I prefer the styling of the S myself and the hatchback is great if you don't have an SUV or something. I'm still happy with my P3 though because I wanted performance and an equivalently priced S can not match that.
For those following. Im putting in to sell the Dec345 at 7.5$. and sell the Dec $325 at 2.25$ (these two cost $2.40 1.60 with the 330$ .80 credit).. I'm going to let the 330$ sold put ride (so be it dear laws)
Driver Dave
Member
Model S and X are definitely not getting old. There is nothing out there to make them old. They still feel totally fresh.
As for demand, I know a ton of people in BMW, Audis, Mercedes who really really want a Tesla and are just waiting for their leases to run out.
Demand point 2: Tesla is having this volume without advertising. You could just tap on the ad gas a little and get a whole new flood of new customers.
Lot of old gas cars out there.
Will be replaced by superior electric product.
Demand won't be an issue for quite some time.
Some things to consider...
The macros suck right now (I know you needed me to tell you this...
The FUD on my newsfeed is increasing dramatically.
It appears the old narratives of (1) "EM is nuts", (2) "Demand is down" & "Tesla killers on the horizon" have been renewed for another season on the Shorts Television Network. It is looking like a bumpy ride and maybe some additional buying opportunities through the holidays.
OT
For next year, I think the "Demand Down" narrative will be played heavily after the 4th quarter results. They will focus on the US statistics and ignore the European deliveries to support this narrative. Tesla focusing on the European markets next year will be a perfect opportunity for peddling this distortion. It is an old shell game that these FUD folks have been playing for years.
Remember, Tesla is a disruptive automotive/manufacturing/technology/energy company. IMHO Tesla is a lifeboat for humanity. It will also be a financial lifeboat for those of us invested in the long run. The collapse of the fossil fuel energy economy will sink many of the industries and governments that they are anchored to. Ultimately, it does not matter if you are in a lavish stateroom or steerage – if you are on the Titanic you are in serious peril. We are in a good place to weather the storm with Tesla/TSLA.
The macros suck right now (I know you needed me to tell you this...
The FUD on my newsfeed is increasing dramatically.
It appears the old narratives of (1) "EM is nuts", (2) "Demand is down" & "Tesla killers on the horizon" have been renewed for another season on the Shorts Television Network. It is looking like a bumpy ride and maybe some additional buying opportunities through the holidays.
OT
For next year, I think the "Demand Down" narrative will be played heavily after the 4th quarter results. They will focus on the US statistics and ignore the European deliveries to support this narrative. Tesla focusing on the European markets next year will be a perfect opportunity for peddling this distortion. It is an old shell game that these FUD folks have been playing for years.
Remember, Tesla is a disruptive automotive/manufacturing/technology/energy company. IMHO Tesla is a lifeboat for humanity. It will also be a financial lifeboat for those of us invested in the long run. The collapse of the fossil fuel energy economy will sink many of the industries and governments that they are anchored to. Ultimately, it does not matter if you are in a lavish stateroom or steerage – if you are on the Titanic you are in serious peril. We are in a good place to weather the storm with Tesla/TSLA.
I would assume that production is still going on, because if not, we would have heard about it in the local press.
In Aug 2013 Gundlach said AAPL is dead money. Then it tripled in the next 5 years. He can't even value AAPL, let alone TSLA. He probably is part of the $10B TSLA short, ready to be burned big time.
anthonyj
Stonks
Looks like they’re trying to take out stops to scoop up cheaper shares before the big run?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Everyone is talking like a bear market is imminent. My experience is that’s not when most bear markets occur....they occur when everyone is giddy. P/E ratios aren’t ridiculous, banks aren’t making crazy loans to people who can’t pay them back, and anyone who invested in bitcoin deserves whatever the heck happens to that, but it ain’t gonna crash the market.
In times like this, people get skittish and increase their cash position. But over time they can’t stand being ‘invested’ in the one vehicle that’s guaranteed to lose value every year....the dollar. So they slowly get back in.
My hope is that the Orange One can strike a deal with the Chinese, removing the uncertainty that looms over the market presently.
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