TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jbih]

He posted a link to the official disclosure doc from the supplier:
Kelvin Yang on Twitter
http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN201812261279726311_1.pdf

This is not a rumor at all, the *sugar* is getting real.

This doc is like the Chinese equivalent of a 8k, disclosure of big contracts that has material impact to the business.
In this case, probably not because the value of contract(43M RMB ~= 6.2M USD), it's more about getting a high profile customer and the hope for long term co-operation.

Google Translate version of the Chinese PDF:

Google Translate

 

[Tslynk67]

Haven't seen Ihor post for a while, looks like Matt is covering for the moment.

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

In short, more shorts...

 

[Thekiwi]

I have a feeling that between Model 3 orders in the US, Canada, China, and Europe, Tesla will be supply constrained for well past the next 6 months, so no need for discounts.

Don’t forget Leasing & SR.

But also, there is a little thing called REST OF WORLD that will add considerable demand past US, Canada, Europe and China.

 

[Analyst007]

today 310$? I have a feeling we fall hard. What are your opinions?

 

[Fact Checking]

Things looking a bit red in pre-market, 2-3% down for many.

Yeah: NASDAQ futures are down about -1.6%, which $TSLA is tracking in pre market trading (-1.5% currently).

Nothing Tesla specific in $TSLA pre market trading, so far.

 

[22522]

I'm not sure if this is the case.

I remember seeing hurricanes go through the Gulf of Mexico, drilling platforms get shut down for a little while and the price of gasoline skyrocketting. Price wouldn't come back down until Exxon, etc. would report record profits for the quarter (and prices would have to come down once the cat was out of the bag). In other words, the hurricane wasn't the reason for the price hikes, it was a convenient excuse for those who wanted to hike the prices. Effect following cause, not the other way around.

For years, I've watched the price wars between the TSLA bulls and the short sellers, Musk vs the media, FUD all over the place and seen TSLA move in completely inexplicable ways over and over again. Then, after it happens, we try to come up with the reason for it. I pretty much think that "they" decide that the price is going to move because "they" make a lot of money on volatility, and the causes that get ascribed to it are just reasonable sounding myths, not really reasons.

Recently, the wild swings that we've always seen in TSLA over the last six years are happening to the market as a whole. My theory, for what it's worth (probably not much), is that the market has decided that what works profitably on individual stocks (manipulated volatility) works even better on the whole market, and that is what we are seeing. I think, again, for what it's worth, that the market grabs onto a piece of news and decides they can use that news to create a market manipulation. How many times in the last year have we seen the Market drop significantly and it gets blamed on Tariff wars, only to see it recover two days later? Are we really supposed to believe that after a decent meal and a good night's sleep, everyone decided that they weren't as scared about the tariffs as they thought they were the day before? It would be interesting to know on the volatile days, what is the percentage gain or loss for the big guys vs what happens to the little guys.

With that said, go back and think through everything that was said after the market tanked on Monday and determine if anything that refuted those positions changed between Monday and today, because if it doesn't explain both the drop and the surge, then it's not really the reason. I would assert that nothing happened between Monday morning and Wednesday afternoon that explains both the big drop and the big rally. Not in the tariff negotiations, not in the economy, not in the government shutdown, not in the level of political uncertainty, not in the POTUS. Nothing.

As much as I'd like to be wrong, I get more and more cynical in my old age. Anybody that has a theory that explains both sides of this week, please educate me.

1. New money uses Stop Losses.
2. Light trading days all manipulation to crash the price of the stock.
3. Stop losses are trigger. New money loses 8-10%.
4. Price returns to market when the market is actually there.

 

[gora321]

today 310$? I have a feeling we fall hard. What are your opinions?

Waiting for MMD to shoot.

ps. Probability increased as you showed up

 

[AlexS]

What is the status with Model 3 Europe homologation? is it passed or still no news?

 

[anthonyj]

Down $11 premarket

 

[gora321]

What is the status with Model 3 Europe homologation? is it passed or still no news?

Opposite from Audi e-tron

 

[elasalle]

.. relax

 

[AlexS]

Opposite from Audi e-tron

I don't know the e-tron status

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Been selling off those shares we bought on Tuesday (average 298) in the premarket.
Its driven the price down almost 10 points.

Got two nasty articles ready to run about 10 AM.

Recommend we cover some of our short position this morning as price will rise in January.

Let me know what you want me to do.

Investing is FUN again.

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[JRP3]

So far mostly positive headlines on the Yahoo TSLA page.
News about China leasing Tesla sets up Shanghai financial leasing unit as China plans accelerate

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What is the status with Model 3 Europe homologation? is it passed or still no news?

Who cares?! Still two months to first deliveries. Don’t fall for the short memes.

 

[jbih]

What is the status with Model 3 Europe homologation? is it passed or still no news?

I mistook the question for the German incentive discussion and did some research before I found out you meant homologation. On the topic of the German incentive, it's still hotly debated. It is assumed that current orders can apply for the incentive. Discussion (in German): Umweltprämie für Model 3, wann kommt es auf die BAFA-Liste? • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Those two nasty articles I promised you.

Headline: Shortsville Times

Tesla may delay Model 3 in Europe. Homologation problems.

Tail lights fail in Europe. Is it the end for TESLA?

Just have to find a hack to write them.

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[Krugerrand]

So far mostly positive headlines on the Yahoo TSLA page.
News about China leasing Tesla sets up Shanghai financial leasing unit as China plans accelerate

Not possible. We were just informed yesterday that GF3 building was stalled.

 

[ggr]

Does this post help?

The short version: on weeks with significant NASDAQ options $TSLA open interest (the next such date is January 18) there's a significant force of uncoordinated options market makers managing their delta-risk inventory of $TSLA shares. This force pushes the stock price towards the equilibrium price of "max pain", where the sum of the delta risk is zero.

This inventory can easily be in the million shares magnitude (short or long), which get traded (sold/bought) on option Fridays, shortly before the "closing price" is determined, which closing price is used to settle options that are at least $0.01 in the money.

Note, based on that thesis I'm sceptical about "max pain" being a dominant force when options open interest is comparatively low - such as this week. So I don't think $320 is going to be a ceiling (or floor) during the rest of this week.

I also don't think "max pain" is an intentional mechanism applied by humans to "maximize pain" - but an emergent phenomenon of a complex market. Max pain can also be distorted by big market participants trading the underlying stock at a loss to generate much higher gains in the derivatives space. Also, max pain expectations can also distort the effect.

One disagreement: I think Max Pain comes into play more when the volume is low and easily manipulated, but if there is significant news it can overshadow the pressures. I agree that the Jan 18, 19 expiry date, has a lot of open interest though (including 30 or so contract for me).

 

[SebastianR]

So, waiting for the MMD to buy my lottery tickets... Come on shorts! Give em to me!

EDIT: I wish to say thanks to the shorts - you guys are reliable! TSLA, you may rise now ;-)