+1000
Just take a look at the S&P 500. The much ballyhooed "death cross" that occurred this past summer almost perfectly signaled the bottom! One would have done very well to have bought at that time.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- TSLA
+1000
Just take a look at the S&P 500. The much ballyhooed "death cross" that occurred this past summer almost perfectly signaled the bottom! One would have done very well to have bought at that time.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Went above the 20day without much fuss suddenly.
Just want to point out that a lot of recoveries seem occur on no news, just as rollovers on the top seem to lead the bad news. It is sufficient to say that the stock price lingered at the bottom of a channel and found support; sellers dried up.
Just want to point out that a lot of recoveries seem occur on no news, just as rollovers on the top seem to lead the bad news. It is sufficient to say that the stock price lingered at the bottom of a channel and found support; sellers dried up.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
The SP is currently above 10DMA, 20DMA and below 50DMA, 100DMA and 200DMA.
Trading yesterday made higher lows and higher highs, SP was on a slow grind upwards.
Remarkable is that the MACD crossing that would have been a bearish sign did not happen and MACD now positive.
Last high on 2015-11-06 might have turned into resistance area at about $232.
Rising 200DMA at about $233 very close to that area as well.
Looks like we had some support slightly above the $200 area.
A close above the minor resistance level at $225 today would be a positive sign and it might be interesting if we are able to close the week above Max Pain.
Update:
First attempt bounced of the $225 area, some day traders selling there.
Let's see if we can hop over that line later today.
Update2:
Higher lows and higher highs, SP will push through that minor resistance at $225 soon.
Next resistance at about $232.
Trading yesterday made higher lows and higher highs, SP was on a slow grind upwards.
Remarkable is that the MACD crossing that would have been a bearish sign did not happen and MACD now positive.
Last high on 2015-11-06 might have turned into resistance area at about $232.
Rising 200DMA at about $233 very close to that area as well.
Looks like we had some support slightly above the $200 area.
A close above the minor resistance level at $225 today would be a positive sign and it might be interesting if we are able to close the week above Max Pain.
Update:
First attempt bounced of the $225 area, some day traders selling there.
Let's see if we can hop over that line later today.
Update2:
Higher lows and higher highs, SP will push through that minor resistance at $225 soon.
Next resistance at about $232.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Marked the $225/$226 area in my daily chart as this was resistance and became obvious support last year.
I have the impression that currently that area is still resistance and we have seen a sell off in that area just too often.
Maybe some one else is seeing a reason for that resistance?
Some observations on the daily SP chart:
1. Early this year we had some consolidation in the $200 area.
2. Mid/end of H1 we had a nice run up to $280.
3. That slow and steady run up was cut off by two bearish analyst reports during July that formed a beatuiful double top.
4. To my opinion we have not seen a clear up/down trend since this double top beginning of H2.
What we have seen during the recent weeks is a high SP volatility due to bears and bulls fighting to dominate the SP movement and none of em was able to push the price to a new lower low (than $181) or a new higher high (than $286). Even quite some FUD did not push SP below $181.
5. I think we could see some more consolidation in the $215 area like we have seen earlier this year in the $200 area (SP bounced about five times from the corresponding support area).
6. BTW the biggest SP decline during recent weeks was initiated by bad macro events, not bad product related news.
7. We absolutely need to break that $233 area to make a new higher high.
I am currently investigating changes to my options and stock.
Waiting for a good time to convert some shares to mid/long term call options.
What about converting a few shares to mid/long term call options every time we dip below the $215 area during the next weeks?
Any opinion/advice greatly apprechiated!
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Thanks for the analysis. You have expressed my thoughts well. A very bullish move is to convert stock to LEAPS (also high risk/high reward move). I can not advise anyone what to do...BUT..I am slowly accumulating J18 200s.
Yeah, I am moving into calls slowly. I got some Junes, which I wish were July or Aug. I feel like I have more time (famous last words) to buy in...
Edit: Looks like your 225 resistance theory will get tested as early as today.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Funny to see that touch to $225.
Let's see if we get a pin at $220 today or if we can move any higher.
In case we get a pin at $220 today I will watch out for monday morning to see what direction we are heading.
Trying not to be too agressive here.
Wait and see.
Tesla Bulls can look back at the last year and see lots or progress, but I can see how investors that don't live and breath Tesla haven't seen enough development to raise the stock price over the last year, because so much long term expectation is already priced into the stock. I do hope that once the Model X is being delivered in real numbers, and the Model 3 is revealed, and battery storage takes off, that the stock price will jump to a new level.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
During the last days $215 has provided nice support.
Some resistance at about $225.
50DMA currently at $228.8.
Some resistance at about $225.
50DMA currently at $228.8.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Personally I did not like yesterday's SP movement.
The SP breached the $232 resistance for a short time and went up to $234 during early trading but moved lower during the rest of the trading session. The SP closed the day at $230.
The nearby 200DMA ($233) makes this resistance area even more important.
The hanging man candlestick for the day before yesterday on the daily chart suggests some downwards pressure.
We need a big move on volume to zoom past that resistance level and carve out an ascending channel again.
Otherwise, if we stay below that resistance level during the next couple of days a retest of the low $200s is in the play.
Thoughts?
The SP breached the $232 resistance for a short time and went up to $234 during early trading but moved lower during the rest of the trading session. The SP closed the day at $230.
The nearby 200DMA ($233) makes this resistance area even more important.
The hanging man candlestick for the day before yesterday on the daily chart suggests some downwards pressure.
We need a big move on volume to zoom past that resistance level and carve out an ascending channel again.
Otherwise, if we stay below that resistance level during the next couple of days a retest of the low $200s is in the play.
Thoughts?
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
SP back above 200DMA by today's close
Nothing but blue sky above. I doubt it will keep rising at the pace of the last 5 days, but the next resistance is like 260/270. I predict a settling around the 200day as support for a week or 2 then a move up.
jesselivenomore
Member
Look for some hot money to start coming in as TSLA breaks out of this pattern:
Adam and Eve Double Bottoms
I'm expecting some near term pause or pullback soon around 240. A break back above that after a couple of down days would signal the all clear signal for the next leg back up to 270s. Then it will take fundamental catalysts to break all time highs. Watch for volume on up days, it is still a little too light for my tastes. I'd like to see 5mil or above traded on a big up day for confirmation of breakout.
Adam and Eve Double Bottoms
I'm expecting some near term pause or pullback soon around 240. A break back above that after a couple of down days would signal the all clear signal for the next leg back up to 270s. Then it will take fundamental catalysts to break all time highs. Watch for volume on up days, it is still a little too light for my tastes. I'd like to see 5mil or above traded on a big up day for confirmation of breakout.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Looks like we had to revisit the 200DMA at about 233.8 that is now support.
Small bounce above the 200DMA, we need a close above the 200DMA today.
Update:
Below 200DMA again, let's see where we close for the day.
Update2:
SP action after breaking 200DMA to the downside not looking good.
SP dropping fast.
Small bounce above the 200DMA, we need a close above the 200DMA today.
Update:
Below 200DMA again, let's see where we close for the day.
Update2:
SP action after breaking 200DMA to the downside not looking good.
SP dropping fast.
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