dc_h
Active Member
We've hit 360 brick wall again. Does this imply stepping back down to 300, or are there examples of triple top being a sign of strong buying meeting resistance and imminent breakout?
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Double tops are real, triple tops rarely stay 'top' for long... More time SP revisits resistance, more chance it will break through.
Supply in that zone needs to be mopped up. I myself was selling close to $360 my leveraged portion...
I think today's action was simply the result of all the markets declining over inflation and interest rate fears. We would have broken 360 if the markets had another 1% green today.
dc_h
Active Member
Is it too late for me to trademark triple-top? I did dump 1/4 of my long term and sold remaining J19 calls a few weeks ago when we were around 350. Based on the resistance and fall back, combined with perceived ongoing production problems and low February deliveries likely to be announced, what are the resistance levels on the downside?
If teh decline holds at 337, would that be an inverted head and shoulders?
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
There is a band of resistance 342-345, due to large volume of transactions in this area, then top of the cloud at $340, then couple of moving averages btw $330 and $340 and more importantly bottom of the ichimoku cloud at $330.
If price is going to break under $330, cloud is thinest about 3 weeks from now, and I've seen it very often slice through cloud when it gets thin... But in reality, no matter how bad news, I don't expect us to break under $330, maybe not even under $340. We could chop for awhile though until better news arrives...
And if we stop decline arround $335-$337, that does look like inverse S&H
Tesla shareholders appear fearful and short sellers hopeful of disappointing February delivery numbers being reported by InsideEVs, possibly as soon as tomorrow. Those numbers have already been hashed out here at TMC, at Bloomberg and elsewhere. There should be no surprises, unless to the upside.
The recent price and volume pattern provides a hint of most Tesla traders' current psychology. That's what makes technical analysis effective.
Apprehension presents buying opportunities. Once InsideEVs reports its Tesla guestimates, I would expect a relief rally. If so, technically that would confirm a bullish Inverse Head-And-Shoulders pattern. Earlier in this hour I uncharacteristically added some near-term call options to my core Tesla stock holding.
The recent price and volume pattern provides a hint of most Tesla traders' current psychology. That's what makes technical analysis effective.
Apprehension presents buying opportunities. Once InsideEVs reports its Tesla guestimates, I would expect a relief rally. If so, technically that would confirm a bullish Inverse Head-And-Shoulders pattern. Earlier in this hour I uncharacteristically added some near-term call options to my core Tesla stock holding.
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I like Chaikin oscillator as an indicator of accumulation, i.e. fresh money moving in, or out from particular stock.
Theory is simple, when oscilator breaks 0 on the way up, accumulation is happening, when it breaks 0 on the way down, it's a distribution.
From that point of view, Tesla has been in accumulation since Feb 12th, and tomorrow's performance is critical if it will stay in the accumulation phase. As per picture. Slope of he curve doesn't matter much, I've seen it many times bounce of the 0, so it could do that tomorrow... Or not, and that will inform me where to buy some more...
The way I would interpret this is to give more weight to info if Chaikin osc. manages to bounce back. That would be important hint that break-out over $360 is likely to happen soon. This would make me reload almost immediately.
Break-down under 0 is instructional to some extent, but considering large SP drop already, it may or may not lead to severe future drop in SP. It could be just another $10 over multiple days, so that scenario would require lots more analysis of other indicators...
Theory is simple, when oscilator breaks 0 on the way up, accumulation is happening, when it breaks 0 on the way down, it's a distribution.
From that point of view, Tesla has been in accumulation since Feb 12th, and tomorrow's performance is critical if it will stay in the accumulation phase. As per picture. Slope of he curve doesn't matter much, I've seen it many times bounce of the 0, so it could do that tomorrow... Or not, and that will inform me where to buy some more...
The way I would interpret this is to give more weight to info if Chaikin osc. manages to bounce back. That would be important hint that break-out over $360 is likely to happen soon. This would make me reload almost immediately.
Break-down under 0 is instructional to some extent, but considering large SP drop already, it may or may not lead to severe future drop in SP. It could be just another $10 over multiple days, so that scenario would require lots more analysis of other indicators...
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Posting the weekly candles to show the alternating red/green weeks. As you can see there has been a fairly consistent pattern of 1-2 red weeks followed by green weeks. The exception is around ER (Oct/Nov), where there was a run of 4 weeks in the red. Furthermore the week that just ended was a smaller red bottoming pattern. Overall this implies to me that there a good chance that next week will end up green (possible 2 weeks). Furthermore to borrow from @Zhelko Dimic , the CMF it turning up as well... Please note the red volume for last week is wrong on the NASDQ site. It seems to have problems with the weekly/monthly data and information.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I was surprised that Chaikin on daily ended up positive on Friday. That gives me _some_ confidence that we may have seen local bottom.
Also, it doesn't hurt that there are signs of activities on M3 tracker(click on VIN chart for visualisation): Model 3 Invites
Can someone help a brother out? My bailiwick is fundamental analysis, but I do watch the technicals on Tesla since it often seems to trade on them. How is the daily chart not a more compressed repeat of what happened in the fall? It looks like a double top and kind of a mini head and shoulders at the end, suggesting the next move will be lower (if it breaks down to the low 320s). Am I missing something here?
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I don't see it as a H&S, too irregular, but it's possible. What makes me think it's unlikely to break down is news from Model 3 tracking...Can someone help a brother out? My bailiwick is fundamental analysis, but I do watch the technicals on Tesla since it often seems to trade on them. How is the daily chart not a more compressed repeat of what happened in the fall? It looks like a double top and kind of a mini head and shoulders at the end, suggesting the next move will be lower (if it breaks down to the low 320s). Am I missing something here?
But, if it does break down, I have few rounds of dry powder left...
The next move is 100% dependent on Model 3 production, not the chart. If they had hit the 5,000/week guidance in December that they had promised in October, the stock would be over 400 right now. If they hit 2500/week at the end of the month, we go over 350 in April.Can someone help a brother out? My bailiwick is fundamental analysis, but I do watch the technicals on Tesla since it often seems to trade on them. How is the daily chart not a more compressed repeat of what happened in the fall? It looks like a double top and kind of a mini head and shoulders at the end, suggesting the next move will be lower (if it breaks down to the low 320s). Am I missing something here?
Reciprocity
Active Member
It will be interesting if this repeats over the next couple of weeks given the price action today. I certainly would be inclined to put in some protection around 360. I typically like to go riskier but smaller with the protection. So I would buy some weekly's if its Monday, this weeks or if its like Wed, I go to next weeks. These would be more aggressive then my long calls, which are typically at least 45 days out. You want to risk smaller amounts for bigger gains if in fact you do bounce off 360 again, if not, you are only out a few bucks and your long positions will be much better off anyway. If it does go down, you could be looking at 100% gain on the short term, which you can use to dollar cost average back into longer term calls. Never an advice.
Today TSLA broke out of its slump despite news and opinions that were more negative than positive. Somebody must know something. That can appear more obvious through technical analysis rather than by what is reported in the media.
I read the period from early this past November through late January as Elliott Wave #1 of a five-wave intermediate term impulse move upward. Then the correction through early February would have been Wave #2. After that, Wave #3 upward would have begun.
This Wave #3 would be further subdivided into five shorter term waves. The first portion would have been the upthrust during the middle weeks of February. The second portion would have been the correction downward through the end of last week. The third portion should be the longest and strongest wave to the upside. The lift upward from the early session low on Friday into the huge up-move today amid heavy trading volume may have marked the kick-off for that.
This entire period that appears to have begun with intermediate term Wave #1 in early November 2017 could actually be long term Wave #3 of the longer cycle which began with long term Wave #1 out of the lows of November 2016. The upward third wave of any time frame is usually the strongest.
The actual information behind what began Friday morning should eventually be made apparent. I bought more TSLA shares late on Friday, and purchased some TSLA call options today.
I read the period from early this past November through late January as Elliott Wave #1 of a five-wave intermediate term impulse move upward. Then the correction through early February would have been Wave #2. After that, Wave #3 upward would have begun.
This Wave #3 would be further subdivided into five shorter term waves. The first portion would have been the upthrust during the middle weeks of February. The second portion would have been the correction downward through the end of last week. The third portion should be the longest and strongest wave to the upside. The lift upward from the early session low on Friday into the huge up-move today amid heavy trading volume may have marked the kick-off for that.
This entire period that appears to have begun with intermediate term Wave #1 in early November 2017 could actually be long term Wave #3 of the longer cycle which began with long term Wave #1 out of the lows of November 2016. The upward third wave of any time frame is usually the strongest.
The actual information behind what began Friday morning should eventually be made apparent. I bought more TSLA shares late on Friday, and purchased some TSLA call options today.
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dc_h
Active Member
Seems more like reverse head and shoulders to me. I’m not an expert, thoughts? I was thinking if we went up today, likely it would/will run, if down would have gone back around 300.
Piper Jaffray managing director and senior technical research analyst Craig Johnson today highlighted TSLA along with two other consumer cyclical stocks that he now views favorably. However, he noted that, “Shares are backing and filling around the 10-/30-week WMAs after successfully retesting the base of a descending triangle; RS remains in neutral territory; wait for a confirmed topside breakout before adding to positions (close above $350).”
Johnson similarly alluded to TSLA on 2013 JAN 28. In response to that I performed considerable research and then bought my initial core of TSLA shares. He’s only mentioned TSLA one other time since then. Craig was an occasional guest on my TV show, and has kept me on the comp list for his weekly newsletter despite my retirement.
Johnson similarly alluded to TSLA on 2013 JAN 28. In response to that I performed considerable research and then bought my initial core of TSLA shares. He’s only mentioned TSLA one other time since then. Craig was an occasional guest on my TV show, and has kept me on the comp list for his weekly newsletter despite my retirement.
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