TSLA Technical Analysis

[Curt Renz]

This arrived just now by email from one of the technical analysts I used to interview on my TV show.

Today the Total Put/Call ratio closed at 1.26 which has led to higher markets 92% of the time in the next five days with an average gain of 1.8%. We have two different Put/Calls ratio (Index and Total) that suggests a bottom is near. Long SPX on 3/22/18 after market close at 2643.69.

Tim Ord’s website: http://www.ord-oracle.com/

 

[Curt Renz]

This arrived just now by email from one of the technical analysts I used to interview on my TV show.

Today the Total Put/Call ratio closed at 1.26 which has led to higher markets 92% of the time in the next five days with an average gain of 1.8%. We have two different Put/Calls ratio (Index and Total) that suggests a bottom is near. Long SPX on 3/22/18 after market close at 2643.69.

Tim Ord’s website: Ord Oracle - Home

And this is what Tim Ord had to say after the market close today:

TRIN closed at 1.29 and Ticks -784 today with bullish readings of 2.11 and -273 yesterday. Total put/Call closed at 1.54 and yesterday at 1.22 both of which bullish and suggests rally with in 5 days averaging 1.8% 92% of the time. CNN Fear Greed stands at 7 (extreme Fear). Still looking for rally at minimum to test gap area near 270 SPY that formed on 3/22. Obviously would have been better to be long today rather then yesterday but the statistics suggests bottom is near.

 

[Curt Renz]

And this is what Tim Ord had to say after the market close today:

TRIN closed at 1.29 and Ticks -784 today with bullish readings of 2.11 and -273 yesterday. Total put/Call closed at 1.54 and yesterday at 1.22 both of which bullish and suggests rally with in 5 days averaging 1.8% 92% of the time. CNN Fear Greed stands at 7 (extreme Fear). Still looking for rally at minimum to test gap area near 270 SPY that formed on 3/22. Obviously would have been better to be long today rather then yesterday but the statistics suggests bottom is near.

Tim now wrote a follow-up to that:

Ticks closed today -784; went back five years with closing ticks <-750 and found the bottom in 90% of the cases came in the next day. The 200 day moving average comes in 255.95 on the SPY and could be where market reverses. Rallies after bottom retraced 50% if not back to the previous high. A 50% retracement comes to the gap level near 270 and would be the minimum upside target.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

There's a first time for everything but TSLA has never closed a week under the weekly 30,3 Bollinger Bands (green lines). That point as of right now is $266.29. The band should widen for next week but hopefully we have ok delivery numbers then.

 

[TMS]

The daily TSLA chart has a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern, which is a known bullish reversal pattern. The criteria to confirm this pattern are all here:
1- Market must be in a clearly defined downtrend (check)
2- The candle to the left is bearish (check)
3- The candle to the right is bullish (check)
4- The bullish candle engulfs the bearish candle body (check)

Based on TA alone, we should have a bullish reversal, also the price just touched the bottom of a multi-year trading channel (black trend line), but we still need a clear confirmation for the reversal when the market opens.

 

[bdy0627]

There's a first time for everything but TSLA has never closed a week under the weekly 30,3 Bollinger Bands (green lines). That point as of right now is $266.29. The band should widen for next week but hopefully we have ok delivery numbers then.

View attachment 289862

Nice Call!

 

[Curt Renz]

This arrived after Friday's market close by email from one of the technical analysts I used to interview on my TV show. It's in regard to an S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which closed Friday at $259.72.

Possible Head and Shoulder bottom forming where Head was Monday's low. This potential Head and Shoulders bottom has measured target to previous high of 280 on the SPY.

All the Best, Tim Ord

Tim Ord’s website: Ord Oracle - Home

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Would someone like to do an Elliot Wave update? I saw on twitter this week someone thought the bottoming around $250 was the beginning of Wave 5 of the Motive phase. I don't know much about Elliot Waves and the rules and he didn't post a chart of what he was seeing so I was left guessing. Here is my guess of what he was looking at.

Does anyone think this is more or less what he was thinking? Maybe he was thinking of something else? Maybe he was completely wrong? There is a big difference between entering Wave 5 vs having entered the corrective phases.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Would someone like to do an Elliot Wave update? I saw on twitter this week someone thought the bottoming around $250 was the beginning of Wave 5 of the Motive phase. I don't know much about Elliot Waves and the rules and he didn't post a chart of what he was seeing so I was left guessing. Here is my guess of what he was looking at.
View attachment 292608
Does anyone think this is more or less what he was thinking? Maybe he was thinking of something else? Maybe he was completely wrong? There is a big difference between entering Wave 5 vs having entered the corrective phases.

Didn't find the orginal tweet I saw but just found this article on elliot waves:
Tesla TSLA Providing the Floor in the Stock market

 

[Reciprocity]

Would someone like to do an Elliot Wave update? I saw on twitter this week someone thought the bottoming around $250 was the beginning of Wave 5 of the Motive phase. I don't know much about Elliot Waves and the rules and he didn't post a chart of what he was seeing so I was left guessing. Here is my guess of what he was looking at.
View attachment 292608
Does anyone think this is more or less what he was thinking? Maybe he was thinking of something else? Maybe he was completely wrong? There is a big difference between entering Wave 5 vs having entered the corrective phases.

Look at the pattern leading up to #1 and compare that to #4. I think you might be on to something. Very similar lead toup that break out. Tough I'm no chartist, I'm trying to learn.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Didn't find the orginal tweet I saw but just found this article on elliot waves:
Tesla TSLA Providing the Floor in the Stock market

This article accurately predicted the bottom as well as us stalling out just under $310. The next move it predicts is in the $275-$280 area. Also, Option_Snipper just pointed out Weekly Cloud Bottom is ~285 and that is support that needs to hold. Based on these two data points I wouldn't be surprised to see a move to somewhere in the vicinity of $275-$285 this week followed by a bounce over $300 again. With Model 3 production appearing to be ramping I wouldn't count on such a move down but rather be prepared for such a possibility.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Here is what is the commonly accepted EWs for TSLA. Here is the problem with that interpretation. Wave 1 peak = 269.34 on April 7, 2016. Our local bottom was 244.5901 on April 2, 2018. If our local bottom is Wave 4 (as the commonly accepted wisdom would have it), then it violates the most basic rule of Wave 4... Wave 4 can never be within the peak of Wave 1. Thus, IMHO, this accepted interpretation of where TSLA is in the Wave cycle is wrong.

 

[GoTslaGo]

This is my current interpretation of where we are in the EWs.

We just finished a major Wave 1 (with a truncated Wave 5). This led us through a corrective cycle with a ZigZag pattern to the bottom of Wave 2. My previous posts regarding my EW interpretation that the bottom in April 2016 was part of a corrective cycle is supported by this current price movement and wave action.

I believe we are in a Major Wave 2 cycle bottom, and are coming back out into a Major Wave 3 movement.... which is usually the longest Wave. By definition, Wave 3 is usually the longest wave, and can never be the shortest.

So the only way Wave 3 can be less than the total movement of wave 1 [180 to 380], is that wave 5 is super short. This would imply a minimum expected typical price target of around 440 for this current Major Wave 3. My expected SP range would be 360* [if Wave 5 is super short], 440, 490, 560... up to 760). Place your bets accordingly.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I have added the lesser degree Impulse and Corrective designation to make things more clear.

 

[defc0n]

This article accurately predicted the bottom as well as us stalling out just under $310. The next move it predicts is in the $275-$280 area. Also, Option_Snipper just pointed out Weekly Cloud Bottom is ~285 and that is support that needs to hold. Based on these two data points I wouldn't be surprised to see a move to somewhere in the vicinity of $275-$285 this week followed by a bounce over $300 again. With Model 3 production appearing to be ramping I wouldn't count on such a move down but rather be prepared for such a possibility.

Pretty interesting my next prediction I finally came up with tonight was ~280 and I came across this. Another upcoming small micro dip makes the most sense to me. Once we come to Q1 earnings report, it could get pretty ugly again too. I can’t decide if that will push it lower than 280 or not.

After Q1 earnings, TSLA becomes quite interesting to me to hold for quite a long time... as the upcoming improved financials could largely make the technicals fairly irrelevant.

 

[sundaymorning]

Once we come to Q1 earnings report, it could get pretty ugly again too. I can’t decide if that will push it lower than 280 or not.

After Q1 earnings, TSLA becomes quite interesting to me to hold for quite a long time... as the upcoming improved financials could largely make the technicals fairly irrelevant.

Be careful, we thought Q4 was going to be bad, but it came in much better than expected. With Musk so confident about positive cash flow for Q3/4, things may not be as bad as some may make it out to be for Q1. Gaming the earnings report is like flipping a coin.

 

[bdy0627]

Using a 2 hourly chart, it looks like we are continuing to trend down in a range with lower highs and lows. The huge dip a couple of weeks ago was an anomaly that went well below the range, partly due to terrible macros. Based upon this range, if we can close decisively above $300, we would get above the upper downtrend line. If not, then we can expect lower $280s again, and possibly lower. So far, shorts remain in control. Below this graph, I drew a little bit different trend lines that yield a similar downtrend channel. I think our best chance of a catalyst to get us above $300 may be the Q1 ER. Even though the financials will be awful, we will be getting closer to 3,000/week at that point, and discussion during the conference call regarding the ramp may be enough. If not there, then I think there is a good chance we trade in this channel into June. Personally, I may be adding when we are at the lower trendline but not heavily unless we dip hard again. Careful with short term options right now.

 

[bdy0627]

Here's the trend on the weekly chart. I think this is why Sniper is suggesting a big climb is coming.

 

[xerito]

Hi,

Best price to enter? maybe ¿$250?

Regards

 

[D-egg-O]

The mid DAILY BB(30,3) was acting like resistance for a while. We closed above it. Hope that's a good sign.