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TSLA Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.

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  1. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    EEEKK! I forgot!!!
    CLV = (((close-low)-(high-close))/(high-low) TIMES daily volume, then running total
     
  2. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Totally agree that $360 is a clear line in the sand until there is overwhelming volume to drive through it. I think after this last big drop from near the ATH, there will be a LOT of selling once the SP gets around that level again. It will obviously punch through $390 eventually, but it may take a few tries yet.
     
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  3. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    added roughly short interest for last 5 months
    Note
    5/22 to 6/2
    6/2 to ~7/3
    divergence 7/3 to 8/31
    not sure about, if any correlation with short interest, other than 17% decline since 5/31
    upload_2018-9-2_12-16-18.png
     

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  4. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    On the weekly chart, the divergence isn't there.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-02 at 11.32.33 AM.png
     
  5. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    look at just the last 12 months, not 24, \when there was a transition,
    perhaps that will say something different, maybe basing, maybe slow accumulation. i'm just not sure
     
  6. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Last 12 months on weekly shows decline in accumulation similar to stock price.

    Screen Shot 2018-09-02 at 3.53.16 PM.png
     
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  7. TrendTrader007

    TrendTrader007 Active Member

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    Exactly. so basically in a sideways trend for now with an upward bias
    it will take time for weekly moving averages to straighten up
    i certainly hope that we start September positive first week and then see what happens over the next few weeks
     
  8. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    #1288 winfield100, Sep 2, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
    we have a slightly different A/D line.
    Yours looks closer to "on Balance volume" OBV, bit a teensy bit differant
    I'm using a summation, starting at 6/29/2010, not as an oscillator
    If I set as 0, 9/5/2017 the summation starts drifting upwards beginning April this year
    perhaps I have a different definition of Accum/Distrib line, and am using a bit incorrectly,
    however, Schwab and I seem to agree on at least the shapes of the graphs
    either way, something very whacky is going on, and 5% of my investments say upwards, since beginning of April, and accelerating since mid July if you do a 20 day smoothing of the A/D line
    At any rate, this week will be "stomach churning" for some, hopefully those short in some fashion
    From my excel files
    upload_2018-9-2_17-47-22.png

    from Charles Schwab

    upload_2018-9-2_17-50-55.png
     
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  9. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    #1289 winfield100, Sep 2, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2018
    Accum/Dist vs OBV
    it's been awhile since I read "Technical Analysis of stocks and commodities" but it was mostly like trying to "scry the entrails of sheep" for hints of the future, so i gave up after losing a lot of money,eh, perhaps this time
    A/D gives greater weight to both high, low, close times volume
    Accumulation/distribution index - Wikipedia
    OBV just weighs volume
    On-balance volume - Wikipedia
    upload_2018-9-2_18-21-17.png
     
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  10. Zhelko Dimic

    Zhelko Dimic Careful bull

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    Since you've gotten more cautious, we may be close to the depth of despair, and ready to turn a corner?
    No offence, you've always shown such unrelenting optimism, it's surprising to see your cautious tone in last few posts.
     
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  11. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    TSLA has now lost $20 in 2 days of September. So, are we looking at 250s soon ?
     
  12. Navin

    Navin Member

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    Yes. Run for your lives.
     
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  13. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Well apparently not. As they say, difficult to time the market when buying (or selling) ;)
     
  14. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    a tiny bit preliminary as not all Aug data in yet, BUT, note Tesla up (green in first are the europeans, so far)
    First two are kWh, last is number of vehicles (pure EV's)
    Note 2 PHEV's used about 9% of batteries
    upload_2018-9-6_10-45-29.png

    upload_2018-9-6_10-46-55.png
    upload_2018-9-6_10-48-0.png
     
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  15. Dangleitus

    Dangleitus Member

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    So I initiated a short before earnings and certainly didn't see the response that would ensue after another bad quarter. Whats worse is I added again at higher levels only about an hour before funding secured. After observing the same pattern close to the ATH as before ( distribution per the usual), I initiated new jan 2020 puts.

    equity position was closed out early for a quick couple weeks @ 10%. The puts are up 60% for < 4 weeks of work.

    Point is, glad I didn't cover. And given the bad news, I don't plan to cover today either. Holding this thing is pure insanity over the weekend given the current bad news flow from the company.
     
  16. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model S - U.S. P - #1649

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    I think we should all be extremely negative, but not give any (and buy if you have the cash) shares. At least, then the only real surprise will be positive.
     
  17. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    did something happen on 8/27?
    upload_2018-9-15_10-47-26.png
     
  18. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

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    If you just look at only the past week, MFI is flat, but A/D up
    upload_2018-9-15_10-50-5.png
     
  19. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    I found this chart today and thought good food for long term bulls.

    The formation points to a SP target of $ 975 in April 2020...

    [​IMG]
    Tesla Inc., 11.09.2018
     
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  20. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    Back in the channel. Quite an amazing Island Reversal out of the books.

    Tesla d TMC-2.png
     

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