TSLA Trading Strategies

[doggusfluffy]

Not sure I would buy options now unless you have a thesis as to why -- best to practice with "paper trades" before you jump into options if you aren't sure what you're doing. Can always buy some trading shares with lower risk/leverage needed.

Sorry, hypothetical scenario is a big gap up Friday open after let's say closing price of $225. I'm curious if say 10 - $235 for $1 is better or worse than a hypothetical 100 - $250 for $.10 Assuming the inherent risk of a lottery ticket obviously. I always picture the horse track and a wildly exaggerated ripping of tickets in disgust after my pure fun and speculation trades. Risk of loss is no concern in this scenario. :smile:

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Sorry, hypothetical scenario is a big gap up Friday open after let's say closing price of $225. I'm curious if say 10 - $235 for $1 is better or worse than a hypothetical 100 - $250 for $.10 Assuming the inherent risk of a lottery ticket obviously. I always picture the horse track and a wildly exaggerated ripping of tickets in disgust after my trades. :smile:

You have to assign a probability of the stock going to $230, $235, $240, etc. The option that gives you the best return at $250 won't be the same one if it goes to $235. However, if you see the situation in black and white, for example only, you think it's going to $250 or $200, it makes the strike choice easy as you just calculate which strike gives the best return for the stock going to $250 (simple arithmetic). If you think there's a range of possibilities IF it goes up then you can determine the best strike for the top and bottom of the range and choice strike in the middle, or maybe the lower end to give a better chance of making anything. If it's in your lottery ticket budget you could spread your money out over a few strikes.

You also have to ask yourself your goals. Maybe you're ok with losing all your lottery ticket money if TSLA "only" goes to $235. You just want to make sure you have skin in the game just in case TSLA goes to the moon. Then a really high strike may be alright in that case. This is why I love and hate options; there are so many options in options!

Like Flux said, always good to play around with paper trades before you waste perfectly good capital

 

[doggusfluffy]

This is why I love and hate options; there are so many options in options!

This plus TSLA is fascinating to me. It's actually great fun. :smile:

 

[AlMc]

I sold one 2017 LEAP today to buy more June 19 270s as a 'lotto ticket'. Good luck all.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Weekly $235s are going for $1...

 

[doggusfluffy]

Jun-19 $270 I hadn't even considered but I can see how that makes sense. I had a bid on the $235 @$.90 that didn't trigger but nabbed some $250 for $.12 as my lotto. Mostly I bought JAN Leaps @$300. Buckling in for the ride...I hope it's up!

 

[AlMc]

Jun-19 $270 I hadn't even considered but I can see how that makes sense. I had a bid on the $235 @$.90 that didn't trigger but nabbed some $250 for $.12 as my lotto. Mostly I bought JAN Leaps @$300. Buckling in for the ride...I hope it's up!

As others have said.....Options, especially short term, are a crap shoot and not for everyone. I have had a couple great picks and a couple real bad ones. 'Lotto tickets' are the ones you do with your entertainment money, not the mortgage, lunch or kid's college money. :wink:

- - - Updated - - -

I'm going to close out all my positions that expire before September for this week's announcement.

I'm going to set up a strangle (probably a series of them) with weeklies tomorrow near the close. Lots of leverage with not that much risk I think. As long as the iv doesn't start going up.

So, did you set up the strangle? What date/strikes did you pick?

 

[InTheShadows]

So, did you set up the strangle? What date/strikes did you pick?

No I did not. I have a very similar setup to Detroit.

I'm sure there is a technical name for it but I don't know what it is. I bought 225,235,240,245,250 weeklies.

I also have 235's for next week's earnings play. The rest are September and out.

I could not bring myself to buy the put leg (I tried 3 times but could not press the send button, it didn't feel right).

My thesis, We didn't get a run up this week, but rather a slow drift down from Monday's pop. I don't think the market has any idea what is going to hit them. Stationary storage is huge, it's the blue ocean, and there is only one shark in it. Tsla. The only way we don't see a pop tomorrow is if the presentation is poor and the market just does not get it.

I am expecting at least a pop to 240, (we were only $1.25 from there on Monday) I think we will press for 250. If we hit 260 I will be ecstatic. If we hit 270, I'll buy you a sandwich at Panara next time I see you. (Which will be when I pick up our p85d)

 

[mmccord]

If it hits 270 it will pay for the 85D I'm picking up Saturday. (I don't expect this to happen, but set up nicely if it does).

 

[InTheShadows]

My break even for my weeklies using intrinsic value only is 240.14.

 

[AlMc]

No I did not. I have a very similar setup to Detroit.

I'm sure there is a technical name for it but I don't know what it is. I bought 225,235,240,245,250 weeklies.

I also have 235's for next week's earnings play. The rest are September and out.

I could not bring myself to buy the put leg (I tried 3 times but could not press the send button, it didn't feel right).

My thesis, We didn't get a run up this week, but rather a slow drift down from Monday's pop. I don't think the market has any idea what is going to hit them. Stationary storage is huge, it's the blue ocean, and there is only one shark in it. Tsla. The only way we don't see a pop tomorrow is if the presentation is poor and the market just does not get it.

I am expecting at least a pop to 240, (we were only $1.25 from there on Monday) I think we will press for 250. If we hit 260 I will be ecstatic. If we hit 270, I'll buy you a sandwich at Panara next time I see you. (Which will be when I pick up our p85d)

If it hits $270 in that time the metallic paint on your D is on me

 

[InTheShadows]

If it hits $270 in that time the metallic paint on your D is on me

I think we will wrap our next car

 

[Wenche]

Good luck to everybody! I'm all in++ I'm in Milan now, just finished watching the opening seremony of EXPO 2015 :smile:

 

[Auzie]

No I did not. I have a very similar setup to Detroit.

I'm sure there is a technical name for it but I don't know what it is. I bought 225,235,240,245,250 weeklies.

I also have 235's for next week's earnings play. The rest are September and out.

I could not bring myself to buy the put leg (I tried 3 times but could not press the send button, it didn't feel right).

My thesis, We didn't get a run up this week, but rather a slow drift down from Monday's pop. I don't think the market has any idea what is going to hit them. Stationary storage is huge, it's the blue ocean, and there is only one shark in it. Tsla. The only way we don't see a pop tomorrow is if the presentation is poor and the market just does not get it.

I am expecting at least a pop to 240, (we were only $1.25 from there on Monday) I think we will press for 250. If we hit 260 I will be ecstatic. If we hit 270, I'll buy you a sandwich at Panara next time I see you. (Which will be when I pick up our p85d)

May you be rewarded handsomely for bravery

Agree with the blue ocean metaphor, but disagree on a shark bit. Tesla is not a shark, it's energy storage business is a boat and fish is going to be jumping in

 

[InTheShadows]

May you be rewarded handsomely for bravery

Agree with the blue ocean metaphor, but disagree on a shark bit. Tesla is not a shark, it's energy storage business is a boat and fish is going to be jumping in

You are right about that. I was taking the context from the book. "Blue Ocean Strategy" subtitled "How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant" by Kim & Mauborgne.

And I'm not referring to other battery makers.

 

[Gtoffo]

Looks like we might gap up on opening. Tempted to sell straight away or during "amateur hour". We could certainly rise during the whole day but I'm a slow trader and I've been burned by super short term plays in the past (from heaven to hell because of greed). Maybe roll immediately to after ER.....

Opinions on selling strategy today?

Good luck to everybody! I'm all in++ I'm in Milan now, just finished watching the opening seremony of EXPO 2015 :smile:

Welcome to Milan! Send me a message if you need any tips!

 

[AlMc]

Looks like we might gap up on opening. Tempted to sell straight away or during "amateur hour". We could certainly rise during the whole day but I'm a slow trader and I've been burned by super short term plays in the past (from heaven to hell because of greed). Maybe roll immediately to after ER.....

Opinions on selling strategy today?



Welcome to Milan! Send me a message if you need any tips!

To keep from getting too greedy my short term (weekly) option strategy has been to sell enough with a rise to give me my initial money back, plus 10% and let the rest ride a little. This way I can say I made some $$. It limits the upside but that is why I let the rest ride. Good luck.........And as has been said many times before......That is my strategy and it may not work for you (and sometimes does not work for me :wink

 

[InTheShadows]

To keep from getting too greedy my short term (weekly) option strategy has been to sell enough with a rise to give me my initial money back, plus 10% and let the rest ride a little. This way I can say I made some $$. It limits the upside but that is why I let the rest ride. Good luck.........And as has been said many times before......That is my strategy and it may not work for you (and sometimes does not work for me :wink

Exactly my strategy too. Selling off my lowest strike stuff first.

Then later in the day I'm going. To roll them out to next week.

 

[Gtoffo]

OK never mind. I'm riding till the end.

 

[Larken]

Anyone want to share what kinds of stuff they're trading? I'm still bullish and buying calls and I'm going for some June 19 260 and sprinkled it with lottery tickets of Sept 18 300. I still have some ammo left that I'm going to fire off, but I'm leaning more towards June/September as May options might be to close to capture the 5 stage rocket. Event, ER, Analyst, Big Institution Buying and Squeeze.