-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Trading Strategies
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
virtuesoft
Member
Congratulations. I'm pleased to see AMZN do well, especially as a number of the most obnoxious TSLA bears are also short AMZN...
https://twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/572496524640452608
https://twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/587626384983457792
Let's talk brass tacks. Is the storage announcement one of those "duh why didn't I see this stock movement coming" moments? We TMC people have known for weeks that it is going to be storage, and that they expect it to be a billion dollar business. but that is not widely known. Yes, some articles have said it too, so we could conclude that Mr market knows that and the stock price has efficiently priced that in. But I think we lose perspective. When the announcement comes, the context will be "Tesla announces plans for Billion dollar storage business!!! Gigafactory seems like a good idea suddenly!!!". The new product, with it's simple business model should be the sort of thing investors can easily wrap their heads around and appreciate.
Might the stock go up 10% on that day? Might we be kicking ourselves for not loading up?
I mean there is always the argument that it will be a "sell the news" moment, but that assumes that the rumor is widely understood, and the announcement is as expected. But with any sort of numbers discussed, whether it is the size of the business they predict, attractive pricing, attractive gross margins, size of the total market, it seems this could make a splash.
My *instinct* is to hope for a run-up and consider de-leveraging prior to the announcement. Convince me it will go up after the announcement instead. Discuss!
(I am posting this in investment strategies because this isnt' about business fundamentals, but purely market reaction and greedy trading thereon).
Might the stock go up 10% on that day? Might we be kicking ourselves for not loading up?
I mean there is always the argument that it will be a "sell the news" moment, but that assumes that the rumor is widely understood, and the announcement is as expected. But with any sort of numbers discussed, whether it is the size of the business they predict, attractive pricing, attractive gross margins, size of the total market, it seems this could make a splash.
My *instinct* is to hope for a run-up and consider de-leveraging prior to the announcement. Convince me it will go up after the announcement instead. Discuss!
(I am posting this in investment strategies because this isnt' about business fundamentals, but purely market reaction and greedy trading thereon).
Let's talk brass tacks. Is the storage announcement one of those "duh why didn't I see this stock movement coming" moments? We TMC people have known for weeks that it is going to be storage, and that they expect it to be a billion dollar business. but that is not widely known. Yes, some articles have said it too, so we could conclude that Mr market knows that and the stock price has efficiently priced that in. But I think we lose perspective. When the announcement comes, the context will be "Tesla announces plans for Billion dollar storage business!!! Gigafactory seems like a good idea suddenly!!!". The new product, with it's simple business model should be the sort of thing investors can easily wrap their heads around and appreciate.
Might the stock go up 10% on that day? Might we be kicking ourselves for not loading up?
I mean there is always the argument that it will be a "sell the news" moment, but that assumes that the rumor is widely understood, and the announcement is as expected. But with any sort of numbers discussed, whether it is the size of the business they predict, attractive pricing, attractive gross margins, size of the total market, it seems this could make a splash.
My *instinct* is to hope for a run-up and consider de-leveraging prior to the announcement. Convince me it will go up after the announcement instead. Discuss!
(I am posting this in investment strategies because this isnt' about business fundamentals, but purely market reaction and greedy trading thereon).
Good discussion point, AustinEV,
I think the post-announcement runup or shrug and descent will be greatly influenced by analyst reactions. If nobody is adjusting TSLA price targets, then it's a shrug, if we see positive adjustments to price targets then it's an up escalator. Case in point, Andrea James has said this new product line could be worth $70 per share, but she hasn't changed her price target for TSLA yet. What type of info in the April 30 meeting could lead to analysts upping their price targets?
* Elon convincing analysts that the two businesses create substantial synergy through greater initial production of batteries at gigafactory and the flexibility to shift cells produced between cars and storage products, depending upon the particular demand for car batteries at that moment. This synergy argument could be backed up by mentioning a substantial number (by name) of subcontractors who have joined the gigafactory project as a result of recent developments.
* Mention of substantial contracts already signed with utilities for storage and some indication of delivery quantity, dates, and gross margins so that analysts can get to work crunching the numbers
Bottom line is that I can't predict the market reaction to this announcement because I don't know the details, but perhaps others can fill in the blanks and we can better guess the content of the announcement.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Agreed. It's all about the numbers. If analysts get numbers to plug into models then PTs will go up, headlines will be great and I think we can only go up from here.
If there aren't numbers to play with then I think it's a coin flip. With the ER the following week some people may want to hang on for that which could keep the stock price up or we could have a bear raid spreading FUD about "the horrible ER coming up" and the price could drop...
Are we going to get numbers? Or information that analysts can use to come up with numbers easily? I have no idea. That's how I see things playing out.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Are we going to see an iv crush with the apr 30th announcement? I'm thinking we will see it on the weeklies following the announcement. But the ER will hold up the iv following the 4/30. Am I correct in this line of thinking?
I have positioned for the IV to stay up by buying May15 200/240 spread when EM tweeted that there would be an April 30th announcement. Currently, I am not planning on adding options, including my usual ER protective puts.
BTW: What the heck are you doing posting at 3:42 am my friend! :wink:
InTheShadows
Active Member
I guess you don't have an old cat that seems to be particularly annoying between 3:30 and 4 every morning.
OK guys, we're done. Sell everything. No way can we compete with this classy, modern, ultra-cool new top-of-the-line Mercedes S-Class:
I mean, how do you compete with upgraded smog pipes for enhanced pollution level, and dangling genitalia for increased repulsiveness and aerodynamic drag? Simply genius.
:biggrin:
I mean, how do you compete with upgraded smog pipes for enhanced pollution level, and dangling genitalia for increased repulsiveness and aerodynamic drag? Simply genius.
:biggrin:
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
We got some numbers today from Deutsche bank. Share price is reacting...Hopefully Thursday's announcement confirms or surpasses their numbers and other analysts shall follow...https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2015-04-27%2Fdeutsche-bank-this-week-s-tesla-announcement-could-be-a-bigger-deal-than-investors-realize&ei=JD8-VdaPG4HVggTYjIRQ&usg=AFQjCNFzZPuDcMBcztG4uqAiSDqnxMvc4w&sig2=vLnsTXX9CDDsdmxmtcHXeA&bvm=bv.91665533,d.eXY
i mentioned it in the short term thread, but you really nailed it on the head with your brass tacks post. kicking myself as well.
surfside
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Same here. I fixed that at $232 today but once again, not as much as I should have...
At least my Jan 16 $300s I bought early 2014 are coming back to life now, haha. Should have sold them long time ago but I was stubborn...
InTheShadows
Active Member
Today was a nice day. I think I made some mistakes though. I'm posting them here in hopes that others can learn from my mistakes and those with more insight could help me to see holes in my thesis.
About 45 mins after the top today I sold all my calls expiring in May, weeklies and monthlies. I was starting to plan to do this then AustinEV posted here and that helped push me to execute a bit sooner than I would have. (Thanks AustinEV).
So what i did with the gains was out about 70% back into June options and held the rest in cash.
I'm thinking the better play would have been to not buy the June options (I am already holding some of these) keep most of the funds in cash however buy about 10% of the cash in weekly puts about 2-3 strikes out. Had I done this, the puts probably would have seen another 100% gain instead of loosing 30% on the June calls I bought.
Overall I am pleased with today's action and my trades, however I'm always looking to improve.
Oh yea, my calls I tried to buy with limit orders at market open didn't fire. In retrospect when I think we will have a day like today, market orders might be better.
About 45 mins after the top today I sold all my calls expiring in May, weeklies and monthlies. I was starting to plan to do this then AustinEV posted here and that helped push me to execute a bit sooner than I would have. (Thanks AustinEV).
So what i did with the gains was out about 70% back into June options and held the rest in cash.
I'm thinking the better play would have been to not buy the June options (I am already holding some of these) keep most of the funds in cash however buy about 10% of the cash in weekly puts about 2-3 strikes out. Had I done this, the puts probably would have seen another 100% gain instead of loosing 30% on the June calls I bought.
Overall I am pleased with today's action and my trades, however I'm always looking to improve.
Oh yea, my calls I tried to buy with limit orders at market open didn't fire. In retrospect when I think we will have a day like today, market orders might be better.
I used today to roll my J16s to J17s. Fortunately I sold my J16s late morning, and bought my J17s at 3:50, taking advantage of the usual afternoon sag.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I bought these at the local top today
Tonight's after hours had a nice uptick. Aapl best should help. I got a weekly strangle near close today. I don't know which way we will go tomorrow, but I know we will not open at today's close.
I'm betting on a drop and pop, or a pop and drop out n the first 30 mins. This is when I plan to sell at least half of that strangle.
I did something similar except sold about half my May 15 200/240 spread. Letting the rest ride. Put the original $ back into cash and took the profit and put it into June 19 270s. At market close they were down about 15%. I was tempted to sell some of my LEAPS (J17s 150/200s) and roll them out a bit but got into a bit of 'analysis/paralysis about the strike price I would move to so did not place the orders.
I still am not convinced (based on Vgrin's excellent chart) that the market has built into the price the impact of battery storage. While tomorrow may bring a small pull back I still think the April 30th event gives us more upward momentum. My concern is with ER/CC. While I do not think it will be a 'miss' I think that after the recent run up it may be a 'meh'.....so will consider buying a few protective puts IF we get to 240+ with April 30/battery announcement.
doggusfluffy
Closed
I had a similar plan, but placing a market order scares me. My pricing page zeroes out to $0.00 just before open and I never know what it will open at. I suppose you could wait, see, then place a market order but it would be nice to plan a bit before the starting gun. I am also looking to improve. Congrats.
Similar threads
- Marketplace listing