TSLA Trading Strategies

[chickensevil]

Are you doing OCO limit orders or market? I think I read the first time you posted about this that you were using market orders.

I'm liking your strategy. Initiating your exit strategy as soon as you own the contract is a nice way to protect gains and limit losses.

My fear with the market orders is them executing at market open for a horrible amount.

That is perhaps the only negative. While the top side is a limit order the downside is a market order. However, the only time I see huge spreads between the bid and ask is in the early hours... So to me that would be the biggest risk area of doing such a trade. Or I suppose trading on thinly traded securities... Thankfully most TSLA options don't have a huge issue with that unless you are deep in or out of the money.

In practice it has resulted in about 10-15 cents max between the stop trigger and the price the security sells for. For my purposes that is within tolerance because if I tried to "chase" a better price and it is coming down quick it has generally been just as bad trying to "bargain" for a better price anyway.

I have had two securities execute on the stop loss and one execute on the limit top price. However in all the cases of the stop loss it has still yielded a nice profit for me because I keep moving the stop loss up with the market price. I have a range that I feel comfortable with and if it comes back down out of that range I want to bail. Again, this has become more of a means of forcing myself to get out while the going is good rather than getting all emotional about it. This may not work for everyone, and I can accept that, but as long as I am making money I am fine with that.

For example I had one trigger today that was a stop at 8.65 and it sold for 8.57. Yes that is 8$ per contract I technically "missed out" on. But when I bought it at 6.15, 8$ out of almost 250$ is nothing. Hope that helps.

 

[AlMc]

So, anyone doing a straddle, strangle or other short term options for ER. I am sitting on the sidelines for short term unless somehow we get the IV much lower (doubtful). I am considering a defensive position with some March or later puts (If we see a price rise into the mid 220s or higher pre ER). Even considering selling a couple of my green 2016/2017 LEAPS (not all as I don't want to totally miss the TSLA/TM train).

 

[chickensevil]

If sentiment toward a miss remains I will maybe buy a token bet on positive ER on Wed (depending on prices for contracts). Maybe I am just disillusioned but I still think we are going to see a meet on the 33k deliveries.

 

[AlMc]

I purchased some protective puts today; March 20 $210s to avoid some of the IV noise. I am OK if they go worthless with a great ER/CC as if they are worthless I will be way ahead on paper. I will add to the position tomorrow/Weds if we spike to the $225-230 level prior to ER.

 

[FredTMC]

I purchased some protective puts today; March 20 $210s to avoid some of the IV noise. I am OK if they go worthless with a great ER/CC as if they are worthless I will be way ahead on paper. I will add to the position tomorrow/Weds if we spike to the $225-230 level prior to ER.

Makes sense. Conservative going into ER. What % of your underlying shares did your puts cover?

 

[AlMc]

Makes sense. Conservative going into ER. What % of your underlying shares did your puts cover?

Right now it covers about 40% of the shares. The only other TSLA I have are 2017 LEAPS 200/240s. DCA the LEAPS starting when TSLA was about $240. The 200s are green, the 240s red (slightly). I have no idea which way ER/CC will go but right now I am staying away from any Feb/early March as IVs are too high for my taste.

Upon further consideration I may buy some OTM (way out 180s/190s) March 20 puts (instead of more 210s) if the price surges tomorrow or Wednesday. These decisions are always subject to change/works in progress:wink:

****I am still hoping for a good ER/CC and watching the puts lose 50% value****

 

[tdiggity]

Just want to verify something here:

Implied volatility for this week's options looks to be super high (as expected) at 90%. Next week expiration is 65% and March is high 50s.

I recently switched brokerages, so making sure what i'm seeing is correct.

 

[FredTMC]

Right now it covers about 40% of the shares. The only other TSLA I have are 2017 LEAPS 200/240s. DCA the LEAPS starting when TSLA was about $240. The 200s are green, the 240s red (slightly). I have no idea which way ER/CC will go but right now I am staying away from any Feb/early March as IVs are too high for my taste.

Upon further consideration I may buy some OTM (way out 180s/190s) March 20 puts (instead of more 210s) if the price surges tomorrow or Wednesday. These decisions are always subject to change/works in progress:wink:

****I am still hoping for a good ER/CC and watching the puts lose 50% value****

thx for detail! Yeah, the short options are super high IV. I sold some calls. I'll consider buying the mar puts if TSLA surges before ER

- - - Updated - - -

Just want to verify something here:

Implied volatility for this week's options looks to be super high (as expected) at 90%. Next week expiration is 65% and March is high 50s.

I recently switched brokerages, so making sure what i'm seeing is correct.

yep. That's what I see

 

[AlMc]

thx for detail! Yeah, the short options are super high IV. I sold some calls. I'll consider buying the mar puts if TSLA surges before ER

- - - Updated - - -



yep. That's what I see

MY disclaimer: I am wrong more times than right. Just trying to lose a little when I am wrong and make a lot when I am right: :biggrin:

 

[uselesslogin]

Well, I sold my short-term calls yesterday at a loss overall since many of them were gathered in October when we approached the 200-day MA the first time. The loss was abated somewhat by buying some calls when we were at $190 not too long ago. In any event I'm holding this cash in the hopes that TSLA gets beat up today and/or tomorrow and I can get back in close to the bell tomorrow at a cheaper price and/or a further expiration date. If we don't get beat up I'll just keep the cash for now and either way I'll be saving some for after the call if the stock drops. My gut right now is telling me guidance is going to surprise the market and the stock will come back to life. Obviously I'm often wrong about such predictions and therefore want to plan for anything.

 

[chickensevil]

The IV is up to 108% now which is around a 11% change from yesterday. There is a *massive* amount of uncertainty surrounding this ER. Good luck to anyone trying to trade this one...

 

[AlMc]

The IV is up to 108% now which is around a 11% change from yesterday. There is a *massive* amount of uncertainty surrounding this ER. Good luck to anyone trying to trade this one...

Exactly.....Weeklies right now are not for the faint of heart.

 

[maoing]

What's the reason for IV jump? We don't expect any major announcement like gigafactory one in this ER, right?

 

[tdiggity]

What's the reason for IV jump? We don't expect any major announcement like gigafactory one in this ER, right?

I think it's just because it can go either way. If I assume we don't make delivery numbers (less than 33k), is that good or bad? The future guidance is important, but a miss is a miss. So mix in the good things w/ the bad things and you get uncertainty in how the market will react.

It's everything we've been talking about here for the last month or two. You can argue short term vs long term and what matters now and later, till the end of time.

 

[chickensevil]

What's the reason for IV jump? We don't expect any major announcement like gigafactory one in this ER, right?

IV for TSLA is always high the week or two leading into the ER, but this one seems higher than the last couple of quarters (maybe I am just remembering wrong?)

There is potential for quite a few announcements to be made but mostly I think the uncertainty is being driven by the fact that delivery estimates for the year are all over the map (Some in the 31k numbers and some up close to 34k) as well as EPS and Revenue estimates being equally all over the map. This makes it tough to predict a "valuation" for the company and if the stock will rise or fall after the ER.

Compare to last year where we had enough information leaked to us by Jerome that people were actually able to hit the nail on the head with their EPS / Revenue estimates and feel pretty confident about them.

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm wondering what the name of this strategy would be. I currently have the first two legs, considering opening the third leg later today or tomorrow.

I sold a weekly 230 call today against one of my j17 230 calls.

I'm considering buying one or two regular feb 250's tomorrow if there is a dip prior to ER.

My speculation for the after ER stock movement is either back down to 200 or blast off. Possibly both. It could be a wild ride. The 250's would give some time for everything to sink in and help pay for the losses on the 230 if we end the week in the 230-240 range.

 

[maoing]

We've been debating this attitude many times over this forum. If you are truely long term investor, lock up your account, forget your password, enjoy your life and check your account balance after you retire. You even don't need to visit this short term thread, seriously!

Sorry, I'm not. My strategy is to balance both short term and long term.

That makes no sense. If you're expecting long term to be fine, then what's happening short term means nothing as it's only temporary. It would be entirely different if you thought the short term issues were going to remain long term, but you don't say that.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

LoL to see many people here can ignore China again, then what's left to Tesla? US market for sure, plus whole bunch of "small" EU countries if we exclude Germany. In this logic, we can even ignore EU market, it's likely US market can digest all the productions in 2015/2016 if TM is pushing really hard in US market.

The UK and France aren't "small", at about 130 million (65M each, approximately). The Eurozone as a whole has a bit more population than the U.S. To say that Europe should be ignored outside of Germany is odd.

 

[Krugerrand]

We've been debating this attitude many times over this forum. If you are truely long term investor, lock up your account, forget your password, enjoy your life and check your account balance after you retire. You even don't need to visit this short term thread, seriously!

Sorry, I'm not. My strategy is to balance both short term and long term.

Since we're metering out advise, short the crap out of it and be done with it. Stop trying to talk everyone else into the doom and gloom where there is none.

 

[maoing]

So I can't even talk about the fact which might be negative to SP? You think it's none but market doesn't think so.

Stop trying to talk everyone else into the doom and gloom where there is none.