Wow this thread has spiraled out of control. I just wanted to mention that my initial guess of an accident was wrong and the image in the photos posted was in fact a reflection. So I was wrong this time on my initial hypothesis.
Now onto some statistical analysis of vehicle fires and Tesla ... We don't have enough data to draw any conclusions. Three fires in a two month period of time out of 20,000 cars on the road for less than a year cannot be compared to ICE vehicle statistics which are several orders of magnitude larger both in the size of the fleet, number of fires, and years on the road. Additionally clustering of events like this means nothing in a 10 year analysis of Model S fires which cannot be made at this time. While the layperson may be dismayed and see an ominous pattern in these events, those who do data analysis for a living do not. Lots of people have a vested interest in seeing the Telsa stock fall (myself included I want to buy more) and some of them (myself excluded, I have integrity) will use anything negative thing that happens to further their own interests.
I was looking at that photo when you posted it last night I think, it was hard to tell so who knows, but if you look closely it looks like it could be the reflection of someone standing there out of the edge of the photo...If I remember right it looked like they had a black fleece on and their arm was crossed in front of them. I'll go back and look.
The rest of this thread has become out of hand. I don't have the energy to check anyone's math here, and I'm sure there are some more qualified than me to do so anyways. That being said, I really didn't take Bill's attitude as being anti Tesla. Other than the math, Tesla has a perception problem. The numbers appear to be completely acceptable, but do we want Tesla to be acceptable or outstanding? Tesla will be held to a higher standard, it's not fair but it is reality. Other than minor software glitches and door handles, the Model S has done well the first year. I don't own one yet, but was very close to purchasing one this week until the stock tanked.
My first concern on the X was how it would take an impact from a rock to the battery pack if/when taken off road. I agree on the pavement the X will have less issues due to riding slightly higher. I'm not surprised with the current issue, however i'm also not an engineer so I assumed they had taken these types of impacts in mind when designing the vehicle, maybe they did but underestimated the forces.
This is going to hurt sales, this is going to crush the stock price temporarily, justified or not. Elon said him self that sales dropped after the first fire, but went up after Tesla addressed it. They better have a different answer this time.
My credentials, been a share holder with a significant amount of my available cash until last evening when I saw the info on the fire, I sold immediately. I figured I can buy back at a discount once this blows over. How much of a discount will depend on how Elon/Tesla handle the PR and the problem.