Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

[Jack6591]

It is time for a sober and reasonable response. These fire events ought to be investigated and analyzed to determine the appropriate solution.

This is not rocket science.Tesla has the right team to correct this problem. Once they have done so, they should spend the money to persuasively advertise the resolution. They can and should use this opportunity to regain the public trust.

 

[Discoducky]

I have a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering and was at Teslive so anyone else who was there can vouch for my credentials. I think Mario's analysis is spot on.

I can vouch for Rolo

 

[jerry33]

This is not rocket science.Tesla has the right team to correct this problem. Once they have done so, they should spend the money to persuasively advertise the resolution. They can and should use this opportunity to regain the public trust.

That's why they are working with Google to make a driverless car.

 

[SteveG3]

Why make the world a worse place than it already is?

I’m convinced that you’re familiar with the concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Or with a ‘fancier’ expression:

Thomas theorem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



I actually think that people that can afford to buy a Model S, X and Gen3 are smarter than some here seem to believe.

I agree with SweedishAdvocate on this. Real issue possible? no question. Perception potentially reaching a level Tesla cannot ignore possible? No question that's possible too... but why feed into it.

I went for a walk and saw a few things worth keeping in perspective (of course some already mentioned in various ways):

- As Elon mentioned within the past two weeks, no one has ever died or suffered permanent injury in these or ANY other Tesla accidents.

- Based on these end results of battery pack puncture, if you see some hairy road debris out there, be sure and let your pack take the hit rather than your tire... chance it with a blowout or at worst listen to the nice request to pull over and exit the Tesla? no brainer.

- In the instant take of the mind lithium ion battery and fire are linked... take a breath and it's spontaneous fire that matters (yes, some don't seem to get around to that breath, but many do)

- A lot of the design of the Model S has to do with the fact that Elon wanted to be able to use it for his family… do any of us really think that there's a part of Elon troubled by the thought that there is a safer ICE he really needs to go out and buy for his children's sake?

(sorry for funny font... I was copying/pasting from a comment I made in an online article)

 

[SouthJerseyJon]

With all the comments, time to add my two cents. I thought that it is interesting to note that the Model S that was involved in the 101 tractor trailer situation last week, DID NOT catch fire. The underbody had to experience serious damage crashing down onto the concrete barrier that wound up on the highway. It would appear that the battery packs on air suspension equipped Model S are slightly more vulnerable to metal road hazards.

 

[ggbjr]

Glad things seem to be calming down a bit. I don't think we can ignore the fact that this place is a big echo chamber. I happen to agree with the perspective that it's too early to draw conclusions. The problem is that the public doesn't have my same patience. A brief anecdote. Tonight, I was out with friends. I mentioned that I had a Tesla on order. The *only* thing they knew about the car was that it "catches on fire." They didn't even know that it was a pure ev. Just that it has a tendency to burst into flames. They ignored all comparisons to ICE fires, etc. IMO tesla needs some serious counter marketing.

 

[FANGO]

There's too many pages for me to catch up with all of this, but have we all decided that the battery caught fire here? The pictures make it look like there was a short in something under the front trunk - maybe the headlight, or ac compressor, or something else, because it doesn't seem like there's any damage behind the wheels, and a lot of melted plastic and stuff in front of it.

If the battery isn't involved, then this is only an issue of perception. It's still a big issue of perception, I suppose (a la Fisker's engine cooling fan which shorted and yet somehow everyone thought the battery was at fault...), but at least this way there will be a way to set the record straight with anyone who will hear it.

 

[Shumdit]

Why? The S is included in the quote.

You stated in a way that indicated I must own all three to be intelligent. Just some American humor (or then again, maybe not!)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Air suspension:

Normal height = 6”
High Level 1 = 0.90” taller; When the vehicle accelerates above 19 mph, the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.
High level 2 = 1.3” above Standard and can be used for ascending a steep driveway or fording deep snow. Clearance reverts to High Level 1 above 10 mph.
Low Level = 0.79” under Standard; Active Air Suspension will automatically lower the vehicle for highway driving to improve aerodynamics. Low Level is also accessible from the touchscreen for loading/unloading of passengers. When the vehicle begins driving the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.


Standard suspension:

• 6.6"

Thanks for that!

So at highway cruising speeds, Model S has 5.21" of ground clearance.

Someone already mentioned BMW and MB ground clearances.

For more comparisons:

Subaru BRZ: 4.9"
Honda Accord Sedan (9th Generation): 5.8"

On the subject of engineering to mitigate impact damage:

With regards to Kevlar, there are 2 issues: preventing object penetration into the pack, and deformation of the pack. Remember that a Kevlar vest can prevent a bullet from penetrating, but still result in significant blunt-force trauma to the target. Applied to Model S, a Kevlar layer would do little good if it blocked object penetration but still allowed a blunt object to smash a big dent in the pack.

A possible solution, also taken from ballistic vests (Such plates can absorb 5.56 and 7.62x39 rifle rounds with minimal deformation), is a modular Boron carbide ceramic plate covering front portions of the battery. The plate would be replaceable at service centers if damaged. The downside is cost and weight.

 

[sub]

Wow this thread has spiraled out of control. I just wanted to mention that my initial guess of an accident was wrong and the image in the photos posted was in fact a reflection. So I was wrong this time on my initial hypothesis.

Now onto some statistical analysis of vehicle fires and Tesla ... We don't have enough data to draw any conclusions. Three fires in a two month period of time out of 20,000 cars on the road for less than a year cannot be compared to ICE vehicle statistics which are several orders of magnitude larger both in the size of the fleet, number of fires, and years on the road. Additionally clustering of events like this means nothing in a 10 year analysis of Model S fires which cannot be made at this time. While the layperson may be dismayed and see an ominous pattern in these events, those who do data analysis for a living do not. Lots of people have a vested interest in seeing the Telsa stock fall (myself included I want to buy more) and some of them (myself excluded, I have integrity) will use anything negative thing that happens to further their own interests.

I was looking at that photo when you posted it last night I think, it was hard to tell so who knows, but if you look closely it looks like it could be the reflection of someone standing there out of the edge of the photo...If I remember right it looked like they had a black fleece on and their arm was crossed in front of them. I'll go back and look.

The rest of this thread has become out of hand. I don't have the energy to check anyone's math here, and I'm sure there are some more qualified than me to do so anyways. That being said, I really didn't take Bill's attitude as being anti Tesla. Other than the math, Tesla has a perception problem. The numbers appear to be completely acceptable, but do we want Tesla to be acceptable or outstanding? Tesla will be held to a higher standard, it's not fair but it is reality. Other than minor software glitches and door handles, the Model S has done well the first year. I don't own one yet, but was very close to purchasing one this week until the stock tanked.

My first concern on the X was how it would take an impact from a rock to the battery pack if/when taken off road. I agree on the pavement the X will have less issues due to riding slightly higher. I'm not surprised with the current issue, however i'm also not an engineer so I assumed they had taken these types of impacts in mind when designing the vehicle, maybe they did but underestimated the forces.

This is going to hurt sales, this is going to crush the stock price temporarily, justified or not. Elon said him self that sales dropped after the first fire, but went up after Tesla addressed it. They better have a different answer this time.

My credentials, been a share holder with a significant amount of my available cash until last evening when I saw the info on the fire, I sold immediately. I figured I can buy back at a discount once this blows over. How much of a discount will depend on how Elon/Tesla handle the PR and the problem.

 

[bonaire]

The Nissan LEAF has racked up a total of 300 million miles.
The Chevy Volt has reached 200 million miles.

Volts average about 62% electric. They have surpassed 313 Million electric miles now and almost 500 Million total miles. Numbers available here

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

You stated in a way that indicated I must own all three to be intelligent. Just some American humor (or then again, maybe not!)

Whopsie… :redface:

 

[bonaire]

With all the comments, time to add my two cents. I thought that it is interesting to note that the Model S that was involved in the 101 tractor trailer situation last week, DID NOT catch fire. The underbody had to experience serious damage crashing down onto the concrete barrier that wound up on the highway. It would appear that the battery packs on air suspension equipped Model S are slightly more vulnerable to metal road hazards.

I watched that video maybe 5 times. Looked like the car was pitched-up by the parts from the concrete barrier just enough to sort of slide across the top of the chunk(s). But you're right, no fire. There would have been a chance of fire if the rebar from the barrier had done some kind of penetration, but those barriers only have limited rebar in them. They kind of crumble more than hang-together.

 

[JRP3]

With regards to Kevlar, there are 2 issues: preventing object penetration into the pack, and deformation of the pack. Remember that a Kevlar vest can prevent a bullet from penetrating, but still result in significant blunt-force trauma to the target. Applied to Model S, a Kevlar layer would do little good if it blocked object penetration but still allowed a blunt object to smash a big dent in the pack.

That was my concern with Kevlar as well, didn't seem like the proper application. High strength steel might be a more cost effective solution.

 

[markwj]

Assuming that the 2 road debris impact events took place at the front of the pack it would seem a quick fix would be a steel plate of an "L" shape that covered the vertical leading face of the pack and extended back a foot or two would do the trick. Might also be worth raising the highway ride height an inch or so. Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality. Tesla needs to do something to show they are being proactive about this.

Do we know for sure what the bottom of the battery pack is made of. Tesla referred to it as "1/4inch armor plating", but is it steel or aluminium? I can't find much online regarding this.

I did find the following Emergency Response Guide, which provides excellent background reading:

http://www.evsafetytraining.org/~/media/Electric%20Vehicle/Files/PDFs/Tesla_ModelS_ERG.PDF

 

[brianman]

Why? The S is included in the quote.

Ruining humor by explaining it:
He was focusing on the "and", noting that he "felt" "mentally lower class" because he doesn't have all 3 (delivered/reserved).

At least that's how I read it.

 

[rcut]

big-picture fire data

It might interest some to review US Fire Administration's USFA Statistical Reports - Vehicle Fires. From the main page:

• "Approximately one in seven fires responded to by fire departments across the nation is a highway vehicle fire. This does not include the tens of thousands of fire department responses to highway vehicle accident sites.
• "Unintentional action (32 percent) was the leading cause of highway vehicle fires.
• "Eighty-six percent of highway vehicle fires occurred in passenger vehicles.
• "Sixty-one percent of highway vehicle fires and 35 percent of fatal highway vehicle fires originated in the engine, running gear, or wheel area of the vehicle.
• "The leading factor contributing to the ignition of highway vehicle fires was mechanical failure (44 percent).
• "Insulation around electrical wiring (28 percent) and flammable liquids in the engine area (18 percent) were the most common items first ignited in highway vehicle fires."

 

[Shumdit]

My first concern on the X was how it would take an impact from a rock to the battery pack if/when taken off road. I agree on the pavement the X will have less issues due to riding slightly higher.

Does anyone really expect them to go off road? I mean there are thousands of wranglers in the town I live in, but I bet less than 5% are actually driven off road. I wold think the Model X would be treated just like the crossover it is and that means maybe on roads in inclement weather, but probably no actual off roading use. I guess Tesla could sell a skid plate kit for those who intended to use it, but I doubt it would be a big seller.

 

[JRP3]

Do we know for sure what the bottom of the battery pack is made of. Tesla referred to it as "1/4inch armor plating", but is it steel or aluminium?

Elon has said it's aluminum. 1/4 inch steel on the entire underside would be really heavy.

 

[BillHamp]

But is there a problem? Or is it merely your opinion? And to me, your opinion is quite frankly not worth very much – if anything at all. I’d take the opinions and analysis of Mario, neroden, Doug_G and flybob08 over yours anyday!

Here’s a poll that suggests merely a somewhat minor problem among current owners:

How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information?

And if folks continue to buy Teslas, to the extent that Tesla continues to be production constrained, then is there really a problem? Doesn’t seem like it to me.

Tesla lost $38 million this quarter. They need wide consumer appeal to turn a profit and the fires aren't helping matters any. Whether current owners would buy again or not is of less importance than whether future owners will buy. Why? Because current owners aren't numerous enough to support the company long term.