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Un-Noticed but Most important - Lithium.
- Thread starter Garlan Garner
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- Model 3
The real question here is whether there is sufficient lithium supply for the world's light vehicles to switch 100% to EVs. There are two issues here. First, is the planet's lithium supply sufficient. Second, is the production sufficient to supply the needs for several hundred thousand (or millions) of EVs built in a relatively short time period. Here is my research on these two questions.
According to the US Geological Survey, there are over 40 million tons of identified lithium deposits worldwide.[1] (Of which 6.7 million tons are in the US.[2] EVs use only a small amount of lithium, measured in kilograms. For reference purposes there are 907.18 kilograms for each ton, meaning there are approximately 37 billion kilograms of identified lithium reserves worldwide. A Tesla Model S with an 85 kWh battery pack uses 10 kilograms of lithium. A Nissan Leaf uses 5 kilograms. It is safe to assume these battery packs will grow somewhat as costs decline so one may wish to assume that the average EV in the future will be a 100 kWh pack. (This assumes, of course, that a superior battery technology doesn't come along.) To be fair, not all of the 40 million tons of lithium can be mined economically at present. The USGS has the workable reserves figure at 14 million tons. Simple arithmetic: 14 million tons is 12.7 billion kilograms. At 12 kilograms per 100 kWh battery pack, that's enough lithium for over 1 billion EVs. If we use the larger 40 million tons figure the number of EVs can rise to over 3 billion. For reference purposes, there are approximately 1.1 billion light vehicles on the planet today. I think it is safe to conclude that the EV won't be constrained by the amount of lithium in the world.
But what about production issues? For the moment let's assume the battery pack for the Model 3 is just over 75% the size of the 85 kWh Model S, specifically assume a 65 kWh battery pack. (The base version may actually be smaller as the range for the base 3 will be less than the 85 kWH S and the 3 will be smaller/lighter.) When Tesla achieves the 500,000 annual production mark that would equate to approximately 4,200 tons of lithium per year. Current (2015) production of lithium is 32,500 tons. Note that this excludes US production. (See the USGS pdf footnote below for source and background.) 4,200 tons is an increase of 12.9% over 2015 production. (2015 saw an increase of 5% over 2014.) That's a meaningful but reasonable/achievable production increase. But Tesla isn't going to get to that level of production for several years. But, equally,other EV manufacturers will be requiring lithium. Clearly lithium demand will increase. That may well mean an increase in lithium costs; more on that in a moment. In 2015 worldwide production of automobiles totaled 88 million units. If all of those were EVs the lithium required would be 22 times 2015 (known) global production. The good news (or bad news for EV fans) is that we're a long way from needing the lithium to produce 88 million EVs in a single year, meaning the lithium industry has time to ramp up production.
The increase in demand and requirement for increased production is likely to mean a price increase. Numerous sources cite a current price of $6,000 per ton for lithium at the moment. For our 100 kWh car that's about $80 worth of lithium. Assuming a four fold increase on the price of lithium (that's an assumption, not a prediction) the lithium cost per EV would equate to $320. That's less than 1% of the total price of the car. One can reasonably presume that Tesla and other EV manufacturers that have long term ambitions are securing reliable long term supplies of lithium.
To summarize, the world's supply of lithium is more than sufficient to meet long term EV needs even if we assume 100% of vehicles are electric. Global lithium production needs to continue to increase and that may require a higher lithium price but even dramatic price increases won't preclude a 100% EV future.
[1] Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and the US account for 75% of identified reserves. Argentina: 6.5 million tons; Bolivia: 9 million tons; Chile 7.5 million tons and the US 6.7 million tons.
[2] Source: USGS: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf
According to the US Geological Survey, there are over 40 million tons of identified lithium deposits worldwide.[1] (Of which 6.7 million tons are in the US.[2] EVs use only a small amount of lithium, measured in kilograms. For reference purposes there are 907.18 kilograms for each ton, meaning there are approximately 37 billion kilograms of identified lithium reserves worldwide. A Tesla Model S with an 85 kWh battery pack uses 10 kilograms of lithium. A Nissan Leaf uses 5 kilograms. It is safe to assume these battery packs will grow somewhat as costs decline so one may wish to assume that the average EV in the future will be a 100 kWh pack. (This assumes, of course, that a superior battery technology doesn't come along.) To be fair, not all of the 40 million tons of lithium can be mined economically at present. The USGS has the workable reserves figure at 14 million tons. Simple arithmetic: 14 million tons is 12.7 billion kilograms. At 12 kilograms per 100 kWh battery pack, that's enough lithium for over 1 billion EVs. If we use the larger 40 million tons figure the number of EVs can rise to over 3 billion. For reference purposes, there are approximately 1.1 billion light vehicles on the planet today. I think it is safe to conclude that the EV won't be constrained by the amount of lithium in the world.
But what about production issues? For the moment let's assume the battery pack for the Model 3 is just over 75% the size of the 85 kWh Model S, specifically assume a 65 kWh battery pack. (The base version may actually be smaller as the range for the base 3 will be less than the 85 kWH S and the 3 will be smaller/lighter.) When Tesla achieves the 500,000 annual production mark that would equate to approximately 4,200 tons of lithium per year. Current (2015) production of lithium is 32,500 tons. Note that this excludes US production. (See the USGS pdf footnote below for source and background.) 4,200 tons is an increase of 12.9% over 2015 production. (2015 saw an increase of 5% over 2014.) That's a meaningful but reasonable/achievable production increase. But Tesla isn't going to get to that level of production for several years. But, equally,other EV manufacturers will be requiring lithium. Clearly lithium demand will increase. That may well mean an increase in lithium costs; more on that in a moment. In 2015 worldwide production of automobiles totaled 88 million units. If all of those were EVs the lithium required would be 22 times 2015 (known) global production. The good news (or bad news for EV fans) is that we're a long way from needing the lithium to produce 88 million EVs in a single year, meaning the lithium industry has time to ramp up production.
The increase in demand and requirement for increased production is likely to mean a price increase. Numerous sources cite a current price of $6,000 per ton for lithium at the moment. For our 100 kWh car that's about $80 worth of lithium. Assuming a four fold increase on the price of lithium (that's an assumption, not a prediction) the lithium cost per EV would equate to $320. That's less than 1% of the total price of the car. One can reasonably presume that Tesla and other EV manufacturers that have long term ambitions are securing reliable long term supplies of lithium.
To summarize, the world's supply of lithium is more than sufficient to meet long term EV needs even if we assume 100% of vehicles are electric. Global lithium production needs to continue to increase and that may require a higher lithium price but even dramatic price increases won't preclude a 100% EV future.
[1] Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and the US account for 75% of identified reserves. Argentina: 6.5 million tons; Bolivia: 9 million tons; Chile 7.5 million tons and the US 6.7 million tons.
[2] Source: USGS: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf
Who said that "you frack to extract Lithium? I just made a statement to say that "I hope fracking isn't involved".
Come on - Stop it.
I SAID - I hope fracking isn't involved.
I also hope California doesn't fall into the ocean - then my order might be late. Do I need proof?
I also hope Elon doesn't get hit by a bus. Do I need proof?
I also hope you don't get decapitated by a runaway Space X rocket. Do I need proof?
I also hope....
Stop it - I'm not suggesting any of these things will happen.
Krugerrand
Meow
I did read it the same way. But let's pretend SOME lithium is extracted via fracking. I'd bet money that Tesla wouldn't be buying it from that company.
EcoHeliGuy
Member
Wow. The SpaceX comment was odd at best. Do I need proof? I was asking because I wasn't aware you could mine lithium with fracking. You are saying it is possible but you hope they don't do it. I hope you understand.
Elon has already commented on this exact concern multiple times before. He said there is absolutely NO SHORTAGE of lithium in this world. You really think the whole team at Tesla and battery suppliers like Panasonic and LG haven't thought of this?
You guys are amazing.
I'm the owner of the comment and you are telling me what I meant. WOW. Anyway. Thanks for your support.
How do I unfollow this thread and your future comments? Nevermind - I found it - Ignore which is short for .....
We are amazing. So what did you mean by "I hope they don't do fracking"? If you didn't mean you hope they didn't do it because it was even a remote possibility then it make as much sense as saying I hope they don't use shovels. You really blow a simple question out of proportion.
As far as I know you can't mine lithium with fracking so "I hope" didn't make sense.
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Speaking of recycling (we were at one point before we started fracking SpaceX rockets out of the ground), Tesla does think about it, as you would expect from a company that wants to make a world a better place, not just make a few bucks. Here's a 2011 blog entry about it, I'm sure there is newer information by now: Tesla's Closed Loop Battery Recycling Program
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I checked on this just this morning with my sources at wikipedia etc.
They assure me that of every 170 grams or so of (cathode + anode) material, lithium is 7 grams.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
There also was not enough gasoline in the world to supply all the cars since produced when they were first sold.
Over the years additional supplies of the necessary materials will be discovered and mined to supply the demand.
Elon is a fantastic example. When he decided to produce electric cars, one of the first things he did was develop the manufacturing volume to produce his own batteries. The rest of the world can either buy from his Gigafactory or figure out their own source of batteries.
People need to remember that before Tesla fully committed to all electric vehicles the rest of the major automotive manufacturers were only turning out the absolutely minimum number and quality of cars to address government regulatory mandates. They were willing to sell their electric cars at a loss so they could continue to produce urban polluting gas guzzlers.
Over the years additional supplies of the necessary materials will be discovered and mined to supply the demand.
Elon is a fantastic example. When he decided to produce electric cars, one of the first things he did was develop the manufacturing volume to produce his own batteries. The rest of the world can either buy from his Gigafactory or figure out their own source of batteries.
People need to remember that before Tesla fully committed to all electric vehicles the rest of the major automotive manufacturers were only turning out the absolutely minimum number and quality of cars to address government regulatory mandates. They were willing to sell their electric cars at a loss so they could continue to produce urban polluting gas guzzlers.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
No problem -- I get it.
In a similar vein, I hope that the Martian who may have been whispering into EM's ear at night does not eat you.
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