Unexpected technology announcements 2020

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter

What are the options for new tech & 2020 announcements?

Enhanced batteries
Enhanced battery production
New motors
Full self driving
FSD chip v4 - focus on power saving
New wiring solution for 3 and Y
Revamped SX with Plaid announcement
Enhanced infotainment for SX
Satellite uplink to Starlink
Car to car communication to improve traffic control and updates
Solar windows to add ~15 miles back to car daily
New production / assembly tech to increase production capacity

Of course production of Y, Semi and Roadster should all begin to varying degrees. Speeding up Y release date may have delayed Semi and Roadster. With Y pretty much locked down and work focused on production processes, focus on getting Semi moving should be next priority. Roadster should be timed with Plaid S and X, which seems to be Q3 2020.

don’t forget potential GF5 announcement, and potential supply chain vertical integration.

 

[rincewind]

In my view FSD is an age away yet. Enhanced batteries, however, I think are just around the corner. With the new roadster at 610 miles and the truck at 500 miles they must be doing something different, and that will feed down to mainstream models pretty soon.

 

[phantasms]

What about the “air conditioner” mentioned on Joe Rogan? Maybe we’ll see a very efficient air heat pump system. Right now the best out there is Mitsubishi which isn’t saying a ton. As I’m about to spend ~$40k to get rid of my oil system and go fully electric/heat pump I’m CERTAIN they’ll announce right after my install is finished. lol

 

[AlexS]

What about the “air conditioner” mentioned on Joe Rogan? Maybe we’ll see a very efficient air heat pump system. Right now the best out there is Mitsubishi which isn’t saying a ton. As I’m about to spend ~$40k to get rid of my oil system and go fully electric/heat pump I’m CERTAIN they’ll announce right after my install is finished. lol

40k for heat-pump?? How big is your house, you are getting robbed, I think. Or is it with solar and poerwall included?

 

[phantasms]

40k for heat-pump?? How big is your house, you are getting robbed, I think. Or is it with solar and poerwall included?

House is ~3k not counting the semi finished basement. The quote is 38k or so. It’s essentially a hyper heat for two zones and two new blowers for the first floor and then a regular heat pump and new blower for the upstairs zone. Plus hybrid hot water heater. Plus removing my entire oil burning system. Add on some small extras...etc. Ducting aside, it’s an entire redo of my HVAC system. Still crazy high you think?

It’s a hell of a lot cheaper than the well into six figures that Dandilion quoted me for geothermal.

I’ve got 11.88 Tesla solar and no power wall as the economies didn’t play and I never lose power.

Best,
Gene

 

[Singer3000]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Commercially viable carbon neutral stainless steel?

 

[jeewee3000]

What about the “air conditioner” mentioned on Joe Rogan? Maybe we’ll see a very efficient air heat pump system. Right now the best out there is Mitsubishi which isn’t saying a ton. As I’m about to spend ~$40k to get rid of my oil system and go fully electric/heat pump I’m CERTAIN they’ll announce right after my install is finished. lol

This. Came to this thread just to post this.

Elon has mentioned a few times that Tesla has products in development he cannot yet talk about, but that he is very excited about. In the Joe Rogan show and some other interviews (Ride the lightning podcast? Don't remember exactly) for example.

Since his current tweet is talking about "unexpected" tech announcements, I don't think he is talking about Tesla vehicles, their batteries and power trains/plaid mode (everyone knows battery and power train investor day is coming) or solar roof and tesla powerwall/pack.

He has hinted at tech to be used in your home in combination with solar roof/panels and powerwall. Tesla's mission is to accelerate the switch to sustainable energy, so we just have to consider what tech in your house uses non-sustainable energy? Electricity is covered by solar roof/panels and powerwall. Heating and air conditioning CAN be electrified, but in most homes it is not. Mainly heating is usually done by natural gas or other derivatives of oil.

The way Elon has hinted in that direction but always blocked off further conversation with: I cannot talk about any further tech/product announcements at this point in time, makes me quite sure the unexpected announcements he is referring to now is some sort of Tesla heating/cooling/ventilation system for your house.

We can close this thread now . (/jk)

 

[AlexS]

House is ~3k not counting the semi finished basement. The quote is 38k or so. It’s essentially a hyper heat for two zones and two new blowers for the first floor and then a regular heat pump and new blower for the upstairs zone. Plus hybrid hot water heater. Plus removing my entire oil burning system. Add on some small extras...etc. Ducting aside, it’s an entire redo of my HVAC system. Still crazy high you think?

It’s a hell of a lot cheaper than the well into six figures that Dandilion quoted me for geothermal.

I’ve got 11.88 Tesla solar and no power wall as the economies didn’t play and I never lose power.

Best,
Gene


View attachment 481389

Def look up Panasonic air to water heatpump working very well, highly recomend, I have it. For large houses they have best system and it is cheaper. It is superior tech, at least was two years ago, don't think much have changed. Price shoud be less than 20k incl. installation.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla making their own cells.

Musk thinks it is unexpected …. shows he doesn't read TMC

 

[Buckminster]

Lidar - just kidding....
Snake charger
250 kW charger
Tesla licensing tech to competitors
Car platooning

 

[phantasms]

Do we have any educated guesses on the timing of announcements? For example battery/drivetrain investor day. That's happening soon no? Has that been schedule yet? Anything else coming up that would be fitting for an announcement? I'm stalling on this heat pump setup. Then again, I'm sure once it's announced it'll still be a long while until I could get it installed.

 

[jeewee3000]

Do we have any educated guesses on the timing of announcements? For example battery/drivetrain investor day. That's happening soon no? Has that been schedule yet? Anything else coming up that would be fitting for an announcement? I'm stalling on this heat pump setup. Then again, I'm sure once it's announced it'll still be a long while until I could get it installed.

Battery and power train investor day was originally scheduled for summer 2019 if I recall correctly, or fall 2019 or something.

The most recent announcement was Q1 or Q2 2020. So H1 2020.

 

[mongo]

HUD
As demonstratd by the opening hologram at the Cybertruck reveal.

 

[mrdoubleb]

How about the laser windshield wipers? sounds like a batsugar crazy idea, but that`s why it`s exactly like something Musk would do.

Joking aside, news will probably be related to batteries (the Maxwell and that Canadian acquisition), vehicle manufacturing (that giant press) and FSD. I also expect that they will start making their own batteries, but Panasonic`s recent 1.6 billion GF1 investment does not really suggest this would be a rapid shift with Model 3 and Y production - maybe they`ll start with smaller volume products like the Roadster or the Semi.

The question is what is the really unexpected part they`ll announce? Probably something we are not even thinking of yet.

 

[AudubonB]

On the "Main" thread, there is some moderately off-topic discussion regarding the potential of cast foam steel (or foam cast steel) as coming to Tesla vehicular production. Tying that in to the patent applications Tesla has introduced in order to create a 3-dimensional frame-molding machine, there develops something of a compelling story. I am happy to port over to here the appropriate posts if a discussion so warrants.

Perhaps.

As another poster points out, there are significant hurdles against using a cast product to create a vehicle's skin. It is - or, traditionally, has been - an inherently "crude" product, whose surface is inescapably rough. The same (?) poster states the benefits of cold-rolling a steel sheet are formidable.

My take on this:

• Yes - cold-rolling steel can be envisioned as analogous to kneading bread dough. You are imparting to the mixture both a uniformity of the ingredients so that they are in appropriate proximity to each other, and developing the protein molecules in the wheat's gluten a characteristic that creates both elasticity and strength. In steel, you are doing effectively the same: the crystalline chromium (mostly - but also nickel, manganese, cobalt and often vanadium, tungsten and a few other elements) is likewise kneaded throughout the iron matrix to endow the entire meld with remarkable resistance to oxidation (rust!), chemical corrosion, elasticity, strength and other desired characteristics.
• Now, foamed-steel is something of which I am lamentably ignorant, other than intrinsically the physical structure of a foam matrix being a staggeringly wondrous blend of light weight and both yield and tensile strength (I'm not sure about compressive nor impact strength; I suspect fatigue strength to be excellent). I also have not learned of foam steel being produceable in a combination of large sizes and volumes - woul be delighted to learn otherwise if anyone knows of same.

Putting these together, my thoughts are that at present Tesla likely is looking to create with CT a product that combines something like a traditional frame that also combines an exoskeleton body. I truly am incapable of envisioning a truck - pickup or larger - that can be a heavy hauler if its entirety is purely an exoskeleton. This may represent my knowledge weakness....if so, I plead guilty. Nevertheless, working with the assumption I am correct, I can see the staggering advantages of a frame that is foam cast combined with a body that is origami-folded cold-rolled stainless. All the right strengths exactly where they ought to be. How it is that Tesla would marry the two pieces? I do not know, and I admit this diminishes the smoothness and speed of the production process...but it also appears to me that both these portions individually could be created faster than by traditional methodology.

 

[Buckminster]

I would be surprised if Graphene doesn't get a mention on the battery and power train investor day. Graphene is getting used in a lot of products now and Elon is surely the guy to take it to the next level.

 

[Buckminster]

In my opinion Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide and Nickel Sulphate supply are by far the largest potential bottleneck to the EV transition. The price isn't really an issue (likely $500 lithium hydroxide and $900 Nickel sulphate per SR+ pack currently), but in the future actual availability could be. Not this year, but during the period 4-10 years from now when EV penetration really does takeover. Lithium and Nickel sulphate are the slowest moving part of the EV production capex chain (Tesla can build a car factory in 1 year, likely it can build & ramp its own cell and pack factory in 1-3 years, but new Lithium plants take 5+ years to ramp). Elon has said Tesla should get into Nickel and Lithium processing. He is right and I really hope they will.

None of the leading Lithium and Nickel companies believe in an EV transition anywhere near as aggressive as Tesla, so they are not investing in the 2025-2030 capacity required to meet Tesla's goals. For example ALB is expecting demand from EVs of 700kt LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) in 2025 (which is equivalent to a 4x increase in Lithium market size from 2018 levels). This is enough for 13 million EVs at a 56kwh average pack size (size of the SR+ pack) and market average 0.93kg LCE /kwh (I think Tesla's is closer to 0.7kg/kwh as it has more advanced chemistry). This is what the industry is building towards, but it is not enough. Tesla alone will need around 10x the current Lithium market to supply its 2TWh cell production target, or c.2x more than the entire global lithium capacity targeted by the industry by 2025.

There is no lack of actual resources in the ground, but there will be a lack of mines and processed high purity metals unless capex is quickly ramped.

I think average Lithium capex of around $700-1,400m per 1 million EV capacity will be required. Likely less than 20% of capex is used for buying the resources in the ground plus buying the equipment to dig it up (or pump it up for Lithium brines). Nearly all the capex is for highly complex processing - crushing equipment, processing, refining or electrochemical plants etc. For example, look at Nemaska Lithium's project (https://www.nemaskalithium.com/assets/documents/NMX_NI4301_20190809.pdf) Page 394 shows pure mine capex at just CAD$28.5m (total mine site CAD447m) vs total capex of CAD1.27bn including the electrochemical plant.

These are highly complicated value add processes and it takes 5-6 years to ramp up a new lithium plant. The purity and consistency of the metal (particularly lithium carbonate/hydroxide) is also critical to battery energy density, cycle life, power density and safety. So it is not easy to substitute new lithium producers into your cell supply.

There has been one main reason for Lithium Prices crashing the past 18 months.

China EV sales are far far below plans this year following the economic downturn and huge subsidy cuts. Battery metal capacity had been built for a supply ramp which didn't happen and this supply is now flooding the market. The price impact of this has been exacerbated by two factors:

• Lithium Supply had been built for low quality low range batteries with low tech cell chemistries. The Chinese subsidy change means there is very little demand for these low range subsidy driven cars anymore. The Lithium purity ordered for these cars is not good enough to build high quality high energy density cells, so this low grade product is finding no buyers any more. Hence the price of low grade lithium products finding no floor, while at the same time cell supply for high quality battery cells is still limited.
• Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide cannot be stored and stockpiled for long. The product quickly spoils, so unlike most commodities, a producer cannot simply stockpile when the price is low - they have to sell quickly no matter the price. This means prices are always going to be volatile and will always be driven by very short term supply and demand dynamics rather than longer term considerations. To some extent this is more similar to the volatility you see in short shelf life agricultural commodities.

So Lithium Prices have crashed due to a short term subsidy adjustment in China, not due to a long term setback to the EV transition story. However, the lower prices have caused lots of lithium companies to fail to raise financing and cancel production plans that would have brought on new capacity after 5-6 years in the 2025+ timescale. So I think it is important for companies like Tesla that actually do still believe in the EV transition, and have the cash to finance it, to step in to fund the capacity required to match their battery cell production ambitions.

Its a very big mistake to take a short term lithium price correction the past 18 months to mean there is no need to bother helping to build future capacity.

Note my argument is utterly different to the false FUD narrative that there are not enough lithium, cobalt and nickel resources for the EV transition. There are plenty of resources. And it is relatively easy to build the new capacity to get to a 100% Clean Energy society. But this takes time and cash. I'm just saying Tesla needs to be masters of their own destiny and not rely on an array of half incompetent junior metals startups and conservative larger metals corporations who believe in a slow EV transition to deliver on a product so critical to Tesla's own extremely aggressive battery production targets.

Nickel Sulphate is a similar story, but I'll discuss that another time .

I had no idea that the Li compounds go off - is this cooking or Engineering?

Removing the reliance on them would be huge. A tough ask though.

 

[Buckminster]

From main thread:

GF4 to have a fancy foundry. 61 Tonne machine with injection moulding.

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

Any Germans want to give a better translation?

Google Translate: 3.1.2 A002 casting.pdf

interesting. are we seeing hints regarding the new production process for Y?

talks about molten aluminum. way beyond my understanding, but maybe somebody could chime in.

Musk said in the early June interview with Ryan McCaffrey that the Y underbody will be made of an aluminum casting but it sounds there will be a first generation (4 castings joined together) then a second (1 casting.) So maybe the 2020 Model Y will be gen1 and the Giga4 version will be gen2. Per Teslarati:

Musk detailed how the Model Y underbody was switched to aluminum casting instead of stamped steel and aluminum pieces, which greatly simplifies the moving parts involved in making the vehicle.

This change effectively means that initially, using two castings to make the structure will take the process from 70 parts to 4 (castings plus joiners), and once the “big” casting machine comes into operation, the process will have brought the process from 70 parts to 1 (casting only). Using casting over stamping reduces the weight of the Model Y, improves MHB (heat produced), lowers cost due to the smaller number of parts necessary, and significantly drops capital expenditure on robots.
Tesla's Elon Musk details Model Y manufacturing improvements, insight on design