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NigelM
Recovering Member
Gerardf
Active Member
I am wondering what's the reason many are expecting fewer deliveries than production? I mean normally that's the case (duh), but we know they had much higher number of cars (5k) being shipped at the end of last quarter than usual or expected.
Now if they only produced 2k cars for 12 weeks (which would be below guidance), that's 24k, so if they only have 3k being "in transit" this time (closer to usual levels), that makes 21k deliveries of Q3 production. Add to that the 5k form Q2 and 1-2k of inventory/cpo/floor cars...
Still seems too good to be true a bit, but we haven't heard much of production issues or really any other issues this Summer.
Now if they only produced 2k cars for 12 weeks (which would be below guidance), that's 24k, so if they only have 3k being "in transit" this time (closer to usual levels), that makes 21k deliveries of Q3 production. Add to that the 5k form Q2 and 1-2k of inventory/cpo/floor cars...
Still seems too good to be true a bit, but we haven't heard much of production issues or really any other issues this Summer.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Ulmo
Active Member
Tesla released Q3 2016 Production and Deliveries today at or before 11:09AM: Tesla Q3 2016 Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla said they "delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3", so subject to revision, and the winners here could change.
The average estimates in this thread for Deliveries came to 25,026, which was 526 too high (2.1%).
1st place winner is @Yuri_G, estimated 24,555, off by 55 joined TMC 2012-11-08.
2nd place winner is @MikeC, estimated 24,580, off by 80, joined TMC 2012-07-19.
3rd place winner is @gene, estimated 24,411, off by -89, joined TMC 2013-02-11.
0th Place Winner was @winfield100 who joined TMC 2013-02-16 who guessed a range of 23,000-26,000 for which the very middle was exactly correct at 24,500, who did not post in this thread, but posted at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1759232/ and is in my mind disqualified for not playing (by not posting here) AND for posting a huge range.
For Production, which Tesla said was 25,185, the average of 8 estimates here was 25,133, which was off by only -52. @Ameliorate (joined TMC 2016-05-22) won at 25,200 (off by only 15). He was also the only one to post a guess for In Transit, which was not asked, but his estimate was 4,500 and the correct answer was 5,500.
My Google Spreadsheet is where I calculated this: Your best #s for 3Q16 Delivery Numbers
The prior time the running average error (regardless of direction) was off by that much was for a TMC join date of 2012-02-09 (but not due to their own failure, being only -263 off), still suffering a low prediction off by -3,750 from join date 2011-04-03, but the blame doesn't go just to that low estimate, because if he had not placed an estimate, it would have been wildly off by much more from the earliest two join dates to play, 2009-11-03 and 2007-08-20, who, after all, were only off by 503 and 1,211 respectively, not that bad, considering the range of guesses, but for which the running average was off by the greatest (!). The cumulative average just hadn't gotten sensible, yet (back in the less than 6 guesses range), so I left the (well known) names out. Feels kind of like looking back in time by looking further in spacetime in the Universe.
Oct 2, 2016
Tesla Q3 2016 Production and Deliveries
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/02/16 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3, of which 15,800 were Model S and 8,700 were Model X. This was an increase of just over 70% from last quarter's deliveries of 14,402. Our Q3 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.
In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 5,500 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will not be counted as deliveries until Q4.
Production rose to 25,185 vehicles in Q3. This was an increase of 37% from Q2 production of 18,345.
We expect Q4 deliveries and production to be at or slightly above Q3, despite Q4 being a shorter quarter and the challenge of delivering vehicles in winter weather over holidays. Guidance of 50,000 vehicles for the second half of 2016 is maintained.
Finally, we note that starting in Q3, our quarterly financial releases will no longer include non-GAAP revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees. We will, however, continue to provide additional supplemental information to investors to provide insights into our business.
Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release, including statements regarding future vehicle deliveries and vehicle production rates, are "forward-looking statements" that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.
Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media
Tesla said they "delivered approximately 24,500 vehicles in Q3", so subject to revision, and the winners here could change.
The average estimates in this thread for Deliveries came to 25,026, which was 526 too high (2.1%).
1st place winner is @Yuri_G, estimated 24,555, off by 55 joined TMC 2012-11-08.
2nd place winner is @MikeC, estimated 24,580, off by 80, joined TMC 2012-07-19.
3rd place winner is @gene, estimated 24,411, off by -89, joined TMC 2013-02-11.
0th Place Winner was @winfield100 who joined TMC 2013-02-16 who guessed a range of 23,000-26,000 for which the very middle was exactly correct at 24,500, who did not post in this thread, but posted at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1759232/ and is in my mind disqualified for not playing (by not posting here) AND for posting a huge range.
For Production, which Tesla said was 25,185, the average of 8 estimates here was 25,133, which was off by only -52. @Ameliorate (joined TMC 2016-05-22) won at 25,200 (off by only 15). He was also the only one to post a guess for In Transit, which was not asked, but his estimate was 4,500 and the correct answer was 5,500.
My Google Spreadsheet is where I calculated this: Your best #s for 3Q16 Delivery Numbers
The perfect TMC join date cutoff for join date sorted running averaging point was 2013-04-05 when @vgrinshpun joined, join date running average off by 6, which his own guess was not far off by 400 (only 1.6%), but two more good join cutoff points were 2013-08-24 (@bonaire) at running average off by 142, and 2015-04-01 (@luca) at running average off by 180, which was the earliest 2015 join date, so in a sense, your 2015 cutoff point for an average of 180 was not far off point. From the 180 valley of error, the error raised up steadily to a mountain of error at 532 at the end (join date 2016-09-04).
The prior time the running average error (regardless of direction) was off by that much was for a TMC join date of 2012-02-09 (but not due to their own failure, being only -263 off), still suffering a low prediction off by -3,750 from join date 2011-04-03, but the blame doesn't go just to that low estimate, because if he had not placed an estimate, it would have been wildly off by much more from the earliest two join dates to play, 2009-11-03 and 2007-08-20, who, after all, were only off by 503 and 1,211 respectively, not that bad, considering the range of guesses, but for which the running average was off by the greatest (!). The cumulative average just hadn't gotten sensible, yet (back in the less than 6 guesses range), so I left the (well known) names out. Feels kind of like looking back in time by looking further in spacetime in the Universe.
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This part from the press release is relevant, though: "Our Q3 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct."
The final count might increase by something like 200 cars. In Q2 the increase was a mere 32 cars, but the recent tweet by Elon saying they will only count a car as delivered if the buyer has actually taken possession of the car should increase the uncertainty.
The final count might increase by something like 200 cars. In Q2 the increase was a mere 32 cars, but the recent tweet by Elon saying they will only count a car as delivered if the buyer has actually taken possession of the car should increase the uncertainty.
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