Washington to ban all new gas car sales in 2030

[TunaBug]

There are plenty of cars on the road over 5 years. I would think that gas won’t be a problem in 2035. But it will probably be dwindling. Maybe people with ICE cars will have their own app like PlugShare (PumpShare?) for helping each other with locations.

But at some point, yes, it will get increasingly hard and probably create a feedback loop: fewer ICE cars mean fewer pumps, and fewer pumps will mean more people getting rid of their ICE cars just to avoid the hassle of finding a pump.

 

[TunaBug]

Just thinking out loud...

Personally what I think will be more interesting is what happens to all the gas stations? There is probably a short term (10-15 year) window when somebody could make a decent business out of all the tanks in the ground that will be decommissioned.

Will Arco, Stop &Go etc evolve into DC fast charging? You could still get your hot dog and six pack while charging, but the number of patrons/time might kill that business model so maybe those hot dogs will disappear anyhow. Or maybe they’ll evolve into better hot dogs and burgers with service at the car to make it enticing? Maybe Sonic buys Stop & Go

I don’t know how many of those stores are franchises, but I would expect there to be no interest in starting new ones. If I had one I would be figuring out my exit strategy today and not in 2030.

I’m curious (but don’t infer that I worry about) what happens to Exxon and all the big petroleum companies. Perhaps some relevant history is how Kodak managed to keep its head buried for so long while the photography film/chemicals/developing market disappeared. But we’ll need similar quantities of jet fuel, asphalt, and everything else we get from oil for a long time after gasoline declines, so it won’t be the same as Kodak and film.

 

[PLUS EV]

If this really happens, and you have a grandfathered ICE vehicle... I wonder how long until the gas infrastructure collapses??? Where do you buy gas in 2035?

Just like in 1905, you'll buy it at the pharmacy.

Okay, not really. Maybe farm supply stores?

 

[PLUS EV]

Just thinking out loud...

Personally what I think will be more interesting is what happens to all the gas stations? There is probably a short term (10-15 year) window when somebody could make a decent business out of all the tanks in the ground that will be decommissioned.

Will Arco, Stop &Go etc evolve into DC fast charging? You could still get your hot dog and six pack while charging, but the number of patrons/time might kill that business model so maybe those hot dogs will disappear anyhow. Or maybe they’ll evolve into better hot dogs and burgers with service at the car to make it enticing? Maybe Sonic buys Stop & Go

I don’t know how many of those stores are franchises, but I would expect there to be no interest in starting new ones. If I had one I would be figuring out my exit strategy today and not in 2030.

I’m curious (but don’t infer that I worry about) what happens to Exxon and all the big petroleum companies. Perhaps some relevant history is how Kodak managed to keep its head buried for so long while the photography film/chemicals/developing market disappeared. But we’ll need similar quantities of jet fuel, asphalt, and everything else we get from oil for a long time after gasoline declines, so it won’t be the same as Kodak and film.

EV charging keeps getting faster and faster and it's not as if the popularity of convenience stores is dwindling, so I see most of those transitioning in one way or another. Once you take out the gas pumps there is actually room for a lot of EV charging spaces. Gas pumps take up a ton of space.

Sheetz and Wawa are a good business model for this setup and I'm surprised there's nothing similar to it here locally.

 

[acarney]

Some good conversation on this topic. Seems to be a chicken vs egg scenario in terms of do we wait for the market (ICE automakers) to pivot to EVs, thus creating an increase in charging infrastructure buildout? Or do we have Olympia or DC force their hand?

That's the thing, we're already at that point. Legacy guys are announcing more and more EV models due out in the coming years. This state doesn't need to announce bans, let CA and NY and other EV heavy states do that. Those bans will act as a kick in the butt to the legacy guys who will start to release EVs so they don't lose out huge sales in those states.

If WA really wanted to jump ahead and be EV friendly they would "force" the buildout of EV infrastructure . Like I said, mandate all new hotels have a certain number of level 2 chargers, require all new home construction states have the electric capacity for a NEMA 14-50 in the garage, or pre-wired for an EV circuit etc. Roll out 500 DCFC sites in the next 9 years, etc...

If they did those things, you would have an amazing amount of people buying EVs by 2030. Even cheap 200 mile EVs would be doable with a strong infrastruture that was just all over the state.

But... all of those things would require work... this just required a press release

 

[PLUS EV]

This state doesn't need to announce bans, let CA and NY and other EV heavy states do that.

I think you're understating WA's role here. WA is #2 in EV adoption on a per capita basis. NY is not even close. In fact, there might be more EVs in WA than NY right now despite NY having 3x as many people. It's tough to find current numbers, but it would be very close either way.

WA is the EV heavy state that you speak of.

 

[acarney]

I think you're understating WA's role here. WA is #2 in EV adoption on a per capita basis. NY is not even close. In fact, there might be more EVs in WA than NY right now despite NY having 3x as many people. It's tough to find current numbers, but it would be very close either way.

WA is the EV heavy state that you speak of.

Well I mean in the sense of "pushing EVs"

NY seems to have way more incentives (all those amazing low prices on Bolts and complience vehicles because of the big rebates) and obviously CA has been pushing it hard. Population wise New York and California pushing for a ban would largely do the same as WA or a handful of other small states.

It's actually great EV's are selling so well here, even less need to ban and more reason to push hard on charging buildout for access to lower incomes, more public spaces, less traveled public routes to state parks and beaches, etc. I truely believe this state has a nice critical mass of EV adoption that will keep the ball rolling, espeically if they make it far more appealing and easy for the masses (IE people in 50+ year old houses, people without garages, people in condos and apartments, etc).

 

[Long Ranger]

I don't think we should be referring to this legislation as a "ban". Sure, maybe that's where it's headed, but the actual bill that passed was really soft on the language. It only specifies this as a "goal" with no enforcement behind it. Text of the relevant section of the bill (bold highlights by me):

NEW SECTION. Sec. 6. (1) Once a road usage charge, or equivalent fee or tax based on vehicle miles traveled, is in effect in the state of Washington with at least 75 percent of the registered passenger and light duty vehicles in the state participating, then a goal is established for the state that all publicly owned and privately owned passenger and light duty vehicles of model year 2030 or later that are sold, purchased, or registered in Washington state be electric vehicles. The department of licensing shall provide notice to the secretary of the senate and the chief clerk of the house of representatives, and the office of the governor when the road usage charge is in effect and the required number of registered vehicles are participating.
(2) The goal established in this section does not supersede any other law, and the other law controls if inconsistent with the goal established in this section.
(3) For purposes of this section:
(a) "Electric vehicles" are vehicles that use energy stored in rechargeable battery packs or in hydrogen and which rely solely on electric motors for propulsion.
(b) "Passenger and light duty vehicles" are on-road motor vehicles with a scale weight of up to 10,000 pounds and three or more wheels. Emergency services vehicles are not passenger and light duty vehicles.
(4) Nothing in this section:
(a) Authorizes any state agency to restrict the purchase, sale, or registration of vehicles that are not electric vehicles; or
(b) Changes or affects the directive to the department of ecology to implement the zero emission vehicle program required under RCW 270A.30.010.

http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2021-22/Pdf/Amendments/Senate/1287-S2.E%20AMS%20ENGR%20S2584.E.pdf

 

[acarney]

I don't think we should be referring to this legislation as a "ban". Sure, maybe that's where it's headed, but the actual bill that passed was really soft on the language. It only specifies this as a "goal" with no enforcement behind it. Text of the relevant section of the bill (bold highlights by me):

NEW SECTION. Sec. 6. (1) Once a road usage charge, or equivalent fee or tax based on vehicle miles traveled, is in effect in the state of Washington with at least 75 percent of the registered passenger and light duty vehicles in the state participating, then a goal is established for the state that all publicly owned and privately owned passenger and light duty vehicles of model year 2030 or later that are sold, purchased, or registered in Washington state be electric vehicles. The department of licensing shall provide notice to the secretary of the senate and the chief clerk of the house of representatives, and the office of the governor when the road usage charge is in effect and the required number of registered vehicles are participating.
(2) The goal established in this section does not supersede any other law, and the other law controls if inconsistent with the goal established in this section.
(3) For purposes of this section:
(a) "Electric vehicles" are vehicles that use energy stored in rechargeable battery packs or in hydrogen and which rely solely on electric motors for propulsion.
(b) "Passenger and light duty vehicles" are on-road motor vehicles with a scale weight of up to 10,000 pounds and three or more wheels. Emergency services vehicles are not passenger and light duty vehicles.
(4) Nothing in this section:
(a) Authorizes any state agency to restrict the purchase, sale, or registration of vehicles that are not electric vehicles; or
(b) Changes or affects the directive to the department of ecology to implement the zero emission vehicle program required under RCW 270A.30.010.

http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2021-22/Pdf/Amendments/Senate/1287-S2.E%20AMS%20ENGR%20S2584.E.pdf

SERIOUSLY

Wow, news outlets have all been reporting as a ban that no new gas vehicles can be sold in state and you won't be able to purchase out of state and bring the vehicle in to register.

 

[ijoe13]

SERIOUSLY

Wow, news outlets have all been reporting as a ban that no new gas vehicles can be sold in state and you won't be able to purchase out of state and bring the vehicle in to register.

Welcome to “news” in 2021. The FUD is strong with the dark side and continues to flow freely from our wonderful “news”, I mean “opinion” providers.

 

[ijoe13]

If this really happens, and you have a grandfathered ICE vehicle... I wonder how long until the gas infrastructure collapses??? Where do you buy gas in 2035?

I’m going to purchase artisanalfuel.com now as a small side bet for 15-20 yrs from now.