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What causes 15 mile idle range loss if Sentry Mode is disabled?

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Parked car last night with 33 miles of range and did not have a nearby charger. Sentry mode was disabled (as it always is if battery is less than 20% charged). Temperatures were moderate (around 70 F). Less than 12 hours later I come out to find that range has decreased to 18 miles!!

That’s a much larger drop than I have experienced in over 11 years of owning a Tesla except when I had a bad 12V battery. However, my 12V was just replaced 6 months ago so that definitely is not the problem. What else causes idle range loss of 15 miles in less than 12 hours?
 
True, if it gets significantly colder. But temperatures were relatively warm overnight (above 60 F). In over 11 years of Tesla ownership I have not experienced that level of range loss in these conditions. Must be more than battery temperature.
 
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The car is always using energy, even when not driving. Security System, waiting for key/fob, managing battery pack, Sentry mode if on, cabin temperature keeper if on, Dog Mode if on, etc etc etc. The low voltage battery powers all these accessories and when it gets low, then the large battery recharges the low voltage battery...
 
The car is always using energy, even when not driving. Security System, waiting for key/fob, managing battery pack, Sentry mode if on, cabin temperature keeper if on, Dog Mode if on, etc etc etc. The low voltage battery powers all these accessories and when it gets low, then the large battery recharges the low voltage battery...
Has nothing to do with this. It’s not actual energy consumption - just the BMS reducing available capacity as the battery cools at a low state of charge.
 
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