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What happens if everyone drove EV?

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I'm just wondering if everyone that could afford a $35k car, and 90% of them bought only a Tesla Model 3 or another EV, would we start running out of electricity thus have higher electricity rate? Like what is happening to gas now, like it used to be $1 in the 1990s but now is $3-4 gallon?

Would it be good or bad? Is it good to keep EV out of reach of lower income people so there is enough electricity to go around at a cheaper price? Because a poor person can go buy a $1000 car, but they likely can't find cheaper gas for $1 gallon. So at around $60 tank, 16 fill ups will be the same amount as that car, and they will pay more for gas than the car itself. At least for CA standards since gas is more expensive here, may not apply to other parts of the USA. But will there be a day when a used Tesla Model 3 could be within reach for $3000-10000?

At some point we are going to run out of gas. But how much longer, it seems auto makers are still making gas cars so it can't be anytime soon. But when will that time come when every major automaker ditches gas based cars? Because imagine gas costing $100+ / gallon and only in a couple fill ups the gas costs more than your actual car. And then at that point I think people will switch to EV even if it costs more, b/c one gas fill up costs as much or more than the car itself.

But once we run outta gas and now its $2000-3000 for a full tank of gas. Will everyone switch to EV? And then what resource is needed to produce all our electricity?

Is electric cheaper now b/c its outta reach from a good amount of people? I'm trying to compare it to the arcade ticket ecosystem because I got $850 worth of prizes for only $180, and they nerfed my game very quick. Only after two prizes, or $670 loss assuming they paid full retail. I guess I'm like the richest person at the arcade because I was the quickest person to redeem their big prizes while most normal people don't bother. I kind of thought me being a skilled arcade player redeeming big prizes is like the rich people who can afford to drive EV and the unskilled players winning finger traps are the poor people in the arcade ecosystem, who are still driving beater cars that drive off gas.

But if somehow all those fingertrap people got good at a game, or found a game with a major glitch that give out too many tickets, but was honored and they got to keep them, that would really disrupt the arcade ecosystem. Maybe to the point the prize room got cleaned out and now there is a prize shortage b/c everyone "got rich". Which is equivelant to maybe EV technology becoming so cheap very fast, now tons of poor people are driving EVs, putting more commuters relying on electric energy, is there enough supply if such a thing happened?

But yeah, they didn't tolerate my profits for very long, they cut the jackpot over half so its gonna be harder to profit. I'm wondering if its beneficial for current EV owners to keep lower income people from affording one so there is more cheap electricity to go around.
 
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solar panels to offset usage

Are we on the way to making solar energy cheaper? And if it did become cheaper, would we finally have an energy source that should be almost infinite? I think the sun should last another 4.5 billion years. I think that's a much longer life span than all the oil since cars were invented. But by the time the sun dies, will all life perish so it wouldn't really matter then right?

Kind of like not utilizing this free energy that's always there. I hope we can start utilizing more soon.
 
I'm just wondering if everyone that could afford a $35k car, and 90% of them bought only a Tesla Model 3 or another EV, would we start running out of electricity thus have higher electricity rate? Like what is happening to gas now, like it used to be $1 in the 1990s but now is $3-4 gallon?

Would it be good or bad? Is it good to keep EV out of reach of lower income people so there is enough electricity to go around at a cheaper price? Because a poor person can go buy a $1000 car, but they likely can't find cheaper gas for $1 gallon. So at around $60 tank, 16 fill ups will be the same amount as that car, and they will pay more for gas than the car itself. At least for CA standards since gas is more expensive here, may not apply to other parts of the USA. But will there be a day when a used Tesla Model 3 could be within reach for $3000-10000?

At some point we are going to run out of gas. But how much longer, it seems auto makers are still making gas cars so it can't be anytime soon. But when will that time come when every major automaker ditches gas based cars? Because imagine gas costing $100+ / gallon and only in a couple fill ups the gas costs more than your actual car. And then at that point I think people will switch to EV even if it costs more, b/c one gas fill up costs as much or more than the car itself.

But once we run outta gas and now its $2000-3000 for a full tank of gas. Will everyone switch to EV? And then what resource is needed to produce all our electricity?

Is electric cheaper now b/c its outta reach from a good amount of people? I'm trying to compare it to the arcade ticket ecosystem because I got $850 worth of prizes for only $180, and they nerfed my game very quick. Only after two prizes, or $670 loss assuming they paid full retail. I guess I'm like the richest person at the arcade because I was the quickest person to redeem their big prizes while most normal people don't bother. I kind of thought me being a skilled arcade player redeeming big prizes is like the rich people who can afford to drive EV and the unskilled players winning finger traps are the poor people in the arcade ecosystem, who are still driving beater cars that drive off gas.

But if somehow all those fingertrap people got good at a game, or found a game with a major glitch that give out too many tickets, but was honored and they got to keep them, that would really disrupt the arcade ecosystem. Maybe to the point the prize room got cleaned out and now there is a prize shortage b/c everyone "got rich". Which is equivelant to maybe EV technology becoming so cheap very fast, now tons of poor people are driving EVs, putting more commuters relying on electric energy, is there enough supply if such a thing happened?

But yeah, they didn't tolerate my profits for very long, they cut the jackpot over half so its gonna be harder to profit. I'm wondering if its beneficial for current EV owners to keep lower income people from affording one so there is more cheap electricity to go around.

My head hurts...
 
solar panels to offset usage
Yeah, that. While we were waiting for our Tesla to arrive, we installed enough generating capacity to cover both the car and our household use. That is, we went EV while reducing our demand from the grid.

I do understand this isn't an answer for every situation, but when it fits, it sure is sweet.
 
Are we on the way to making solar energy cheaper? And if it did become cheaper, would we finally have an energy source that should be almost infinite? I think the sun should last another 4.5 billion years. I think that's a much longer life span than all the oil since cars were invented. But by the time the sun dies, will all life perish so it wouldn't really matter then right?

Kind of like not utilizing this free energy that's always there. I hope we can start utilizing more soon.

starting 2020, all homes in California are being built with solar panels.

Yeah, that. While we were waiting for our Tesla to arrive, we installed enough generating capacity to cover both the car and our household use. That is, we went EV while reducing our demand from the grid.

I do understand this isn't an answer for every situation, but when it fits, it sure is sweet.

i bought the tesla and installed solar around the same time. it makes sense if you own the home and charge at home, ROI was ~8 years for me. including car gas/home usage calcs.

although I have read it doesnt seem that great on the new PGE NEM plan
 
This is a little dated, since I put it together a few years ago, but it should address your concerns, and the more efficient Model 3 with a smaller battery only makes the impact smaller. The short version is we have plenty of capacity, though not all of it is terribly green energy at the moment.

Here's my previous post on the topic:

It's not a problem, once you look at the big picture. Let's pull together the facts and do a little math...
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Over here, the US used 136.78 billion gallons of gas in 2014.

If you look at this, the total US grid electricity production for 2014 was 14.78 Quads of electricity.

These two looked at together show that US drivers drove about 2.98 trillion miles in 2014.

Incidentally, that suggests 21.8 mpg overall average (2.98 trillion miles/136.78 billion gallons.)

A quad of electricity is a quadrillion BTUs - at 3412.14 BTUs per kWh, it is about 293 GWh per quad.

For the sake of this exercise, I'll assume that all those 2.98 trillion miles are suddenly being driven by RWD 85 kWh Model Ss. Not only is this a more viable car for most people than the others, it's also one of the less efficient pure EVs in the current market (due to the weight and performance gearing) - so it should give a conservative answer.

Over here, the EPA rates that car at 38 kWh per 100 miles including charging losses.

2.98 trillion miles at 38 kWh per 100 miles gives 1.132 PWh - 1.1 trillion kWh. That's a huge total, right?

But here's the perspective on that - it's only 3.86 quads. In the electricity chart I gave you above, we spent 4.79 quads (1.4 PWh) on residential electricity usage alone in 2014.

With that perspective and considering that the current grid experiences a 2:1 ratio of consumption from the middle of the afternoon to the middle of the night, it should be clear that the grid as a whole should be fine.

There could be local cases where residential neighborhoods that were already near the edge might need some improvement in the infrastructure, but it should be minimal and localized - and the variable nature of EV charging could help a lot...

If the cars involved are indeed Model Ss, with always on net connectivity and extensive software, there's no reason they can't be tied to the power company directly through the web. What if the power company gave you a 20% discount on all your charging power in exchange for the right to choose exactly when and how fast you charge, with a guarantee that they'd always give you a battery charged to your charging target before you leave in the morning?

That sort of deal would be a no-brainer for me, and I'd think most of us - but the power company would probably come out ahead on it as well. If they have a bunch of cars charging, they can ramp the rates up and down or suspend/initiate charging a lot faster than they can spin up most types of standby power to respond to load changes - and the distributed nature of the load would let them balance the response across transmission lines too.

The next step, vehicle to grid (V2G) where they could actually use a little power from you battery to meet the demand, requires a lot more infrastructure and control and may not happen, but just the flexibility to shape what would become ~21% of their overall usage would be a huge boon and might save them (and hopefully thereafter you) money on meeting spinning reserve requirements if the system for adjusting the charging is robust enough to convince regulators.

Of course, there aren't 216.8 million Model Ss to drive those 2.98 trillion miles, and there won't be for some time. We certainly have the ability to build enough car bodies, and I believe that with all the other things we use them for, we probably have enough capacity to build the power electronics and the drive motors. The problem is batteries...

Tesla sees this coming, and that's why they are building the Gigafactory. If you look here, you'll see that Tesla is hoping to build 35 Gwh of batteries at the Gigafactory in 2020 and every year thereafter. That's more than the entire industry produced in 2013 - and still a drop in the bucket for total conversion.

Those 216.8 million Model Ss up above need 18.4 TWh of capacity - 526 years of production at 35 GWh per year. Even if they were 216.8 million Leafs instead, they'd still need nearly 5 TWh - two orders of magnitude more than the Gigafactory can produce.

After spending a while trying to digest this chart, I think it's telling me that in 2014 we introduced about 16.8 million new cars into the fleet. (Which means the average car lasts 12.9 years in service somewhere.) If we were building only EVs, we'd need 1.4 TWh of production (or, eventually, recycling of batteries from old EVs) for Model Ss or 370 GWh for Leafs - between 11 and 40 times the planned Gigafactory capacity.

Lithium is fairly plentiful, and "mining" it is both relatively easy and not horrible for the environment (mostly achieved by concentrating salts from ground water, especially geothermal type deep underground water,) but we're going to need to do a whole lot of it, even though the Model S battery only has about 20 pounds of Lithium in the ~1200 pound pack.
 
Oh my. Just reading that question always gives me chills and makes me well up at the thought it might happen.

Having lots of EVs is a problem for the grid that results in better, cleaner, more efficient, cheaper electricity.

Flexible demand to charge lots of batteries would be incredibly helpful.
 
I'm in one of those states that charge $200 for my model 3 o_O. Technically, you could be charged per mile since all EVs know what state they are in and how many miles they have gone.
The problem with that is it that could be charging you for miles that you don't necessarily drive in the state that you live in. They could use GPS to charge based upon wat state the miles were actually driven in but that brings up all kinds of privacy concerns.
 
If everyone drove an EV, who would pay to maintain our roads and highways? The govt would have to implement some kind of usage tax for every mile you drive.

Currently most states that have specific charges are using a fixed fee.
They're doing that because currently EVs are expensive and they expect owners will suck it up. (Or they might be trying to sabotage sales).

As prices come down, I think there would be more chance of pushback that would lead to mileage-based fees.

I suspect other countries will more readily introduce mileage-based fees.