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What is FSD value in used car market?

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Will the FSD subscription (early 2021) increase or decrease the FSD value in the used car market ? I would like to hear your arguments.
Tesla "Full Self-Driving" Subscriptions Coming Early 2021

Definitely lower.
I assume most people don’t need FSD every day of every year. And as people have discussed here, why pay $10K when the resale value of FSD is much less. Just pay monthly whenever you want it.
 
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I just sold my car today AWD LR with FSD. Paid $5K for EAP and $2K when FSD was on sale. I think I probably got about 1/2 the value back. The good thing with FSD is that most people want it, the bad thing is that people don't want to pay for it.

So basically like a swimming pool in the housing market? Yep, I just finished putting a pool in our new house and know it adds only ~ 50 cents on the dollar to the value of the house.
 
In my opinion the FSD-value in used-car-market has increased now FSD subscription is an option. This value is more concrete for potential buyers of the car by comparing it with savings on FSD subscription.

Except that with a subscription, you don't have to pay month after month after month. If someone only plans to subscribe a couple months a year and keeps the car for four years, it would cost $1,592 ($199 x 2 months x 4 years) at current prices. In this example, $1,592 is a lot less than the full $10k new retail price which means the resale value of FSD on a used car could also be impacted negatively.
 
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The biggest thing weighing down the used vehicle FSD pricing has been Tesla playing silly games with it. Where they add or remove it from a used vehicle their selling to maximize revenue on the sale. Heck they even said "why would we pay more for it when we can add it for free?"

By having a subscription plan means that in the long term its better for Tesla not to add FSD to a used vehicle, and in fact it likely makes sense for them to remove it from used vehicles. My expectation is that even being able to buy FSD will disappear once FSD is actually worth $199 a month.

At some point an FSD vehicle will be as rare as a Tesla with unlimited supercharging (that follows the car).

The $199 a month pricing likely won't stay that way for long.
The ability to buy it for one month, and then not for other month likely won't last long either. At some point they'll say "its being abused", and they'll add minimum lengths of time.
 
Except that with a subscription, you don't have to pay month after month after month. If someone only plans to subscribe a couple months a year and keeps the car for four years, it would cost $1,592 ($199 x 2 months x 4 years) at current prices. In this example, $1,592 is a lot less than the full $10k new retail price which means the resale value of FSD on a used car could also be impacted negatively.

In the beginning stages of FSD beta I do expect "I'm just trying this out" to be the bulk of the subscriptions. But, I don't expect that to continue on once FSD gets to some level of stability in expectations versus what it delivers.

FSD City Streets is the core foundation of FSD, but that's for every day driving. So it doesn't really make sense to buy it for 2 months out of the year.

For road trips the auto-lane change would come in handy for AP people, but I can't see paying $199 to use it for a month.
 
The biggest thing weighing down the used vehicle FSD pricing has been Tesla playing silly games with it. Where they add or remove it from a used vehicle their selling to maximize revenue on the sale. Heck they even said "why would we pay more for it when we can add it for free?"

By having a subscription plan means that in the long term its better for Tesla not to add FSD to a used vehicle, and in fact it likely makes sense for them to remove it from used vehicles. My expectation is that even being able to buy FSD will disappear once FSD is actually worth $199 a month.

At some point an FSD vehicle will be as rare as a Tesla with unlimited supercharging (that follows the car).

The $199 a month pricing likely won't stay that way for long.
The ability to buy it for one month, and then not for other month likely won't last long either. At some point they'll say "its being abused", and they'll add minimum lengths of time.
some vendors call this 'feature on demand' and I dont think they have a minimum time limit other than the billing period, which is usually per month. my info might be out of date, though, but the 'FOD' concept is taking hold and I expect it to be a standard concept with all vendors, going forward.

rent seeking is one thing companies LOVE.

and again, these are tech items. their useful lifespan is way shorter than old school cars. I have volt meters and lab grade power supplies on my test bench that date from the 1960's thru 80's and they are competitive with what is currently out there as state of the art. they never needed flash updates, their features never went out of style and nothing ever 'changed on me' on the UI or its operation.

but that's not what a modern car is, anymore. and so while I love to keep and use ancient classic test equipment, I dont apply that reasoning at all to modern cars. I'm pretty ok with renting features if I can turn that rental on and off mostly at will and it frees me from being stuck with some tech for years that isn't pulling its weight (lol) for years.
 
At level 4 or 5, I'd pay $10K for FSD. At a glorified level 2, it's not worth it to me just to get auto lane change (the only function that I miss with basic Autopilot). From a revenue perspective, the subscription is a stroke of genius because it creates a recurring revenue source for Tesla (which the street loves), whereas the FSD option is still partially in deferred revenue until all functionalities are delivered. I could see Tesla switching completely to a subscription model, and/or making the purchase of FSD prohibitively expensive.
 
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some vendors call this 'feature on demand' and I dont think they have a minimum time limit other than the billing period, which is usually per month. my info might be out of date, though, but the 'FOD' concept is taking hold and I expect it to be a standard concept with all vendors, going forward.

I'm not sure how well this is going to work out for automobiles because humans often make a decision before coming up with a way to justify that decision. This means it's easy for people to make one time money spending decisions even if the rationality for it is really stretching it.

For example I'd love to have night vision, and an HUD.

If the difference between one model of an EV with those, and without those were $5K I'd likely justify the decision.

Do I have experience with either? No
Do I know that they'll work well? No
Will I come up with rational reason to justify my want? Yes

But, having those features as a monthly subscription totally changes it. The monthly price of those features has to be low enough for me to ignore or the features have to be so good to justify a non-trivial price.

I'd be really surprised if the FOD concept really takes hold with automobiles beyond Cloud services, and self driving services.

Cloud services makes sense because its a repeating expense to the manufacture so they should push it onto the consumer like Tesla does with their connectivity package.

Self driving services also make sense because it's a repeating expense in updating Maps, SW, and the cost of liability any time its used. Plus technology improves and so self-driving is going to expire when the technology no longer measures up to the current state of the art.

One of the things I hate about the IoT world we live in is we have to keep paying for something because someone has to keep updating it. I'd rather buy an offline device I could pay for one time even if I had to pay for updates, and load the updates using a USB stick.

Or maybe I'm just old school.
 
If you sell to carmax or the like, you'll find that FSD has minimal (if any) value add to your offer.
If you sell privately, check what KBB values it by configuring a used tesla with FSD, then edit the option to show the private party value without..