mitch672
Active Member
This post probably belongs in the "investors subforum", but since we are talking about "Better Place", might be worth getting a few shares of their stock, you know, just in case something is announced shortly 
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What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?
- Thread starter yobigd20
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- Tesla Inc.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
This post probably belongs in the "investors subforum", but since we are talking about "Better Place", might be worth getting a few shares of their stock, you know, just in case something is announced shortly
They are traded on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. I've been trying to run down how to invest for at least an hour. All I can find on English Google is a Israeli story warning people not to invest in them, lol
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
It makes sense to save the craziest idea for last.
The "demonstration" is probably actually going to be pretty cool. Anybody live near the Hawthorne location that can see if the hardware needed could be in the area? I think that's where the demonstration is supposed to be, right?
The "demonstration" is probably actually going to be pretty cool. Anybody live near the Hawthorne location that can see if the hardware needed could be in the area? I think that's where the demonstration is supposed to be, right?
Another thing.
If you swap out a battery, there's suddenly no power to the car, right?
So, that's no good. So there would have to be continuous power to the car so it doesn't get "bricked" right? So would you have to plug in a charger into the charger receptacle before beginning a swap? Is the car wired so it (meaning the computers, the dash, the 17-in display, etc) can operate fully on charger-power only while the battery is removed?
If you swap out a battery, there's suddenly no power to the car, right?
So, that's no good. So there would have to be continuous power to the car so it doesn't get "bricked" right? So would you have to plug in a charger into the charger receptacle before beginning a swap? Is the car wired so it (meaning the computers, the dash, the 17-in display, etc) can operate fully on charger-power only while the battery is removed?
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Christ, I do but I'm out of state, lol. This will be in the news soon. Hope they had their ducks in a row since they knew the news would be out with the 10Q. Elon needs to get ahead of this if he wants his announcement to happen before the MSM publishes 5 million stories.
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There must be an adapter that the robot plugs into. It probably needs to activate actuators inside of the battery to seal it prior to disconnecting the sealant lines. I really have no clue as to specifics of the engineering, but these are trivial issues to solve, and would have been designed into the car very early in the process.
PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
I'm not a big believer in the whole battery swap idea. Compared to superchargers, the capital costs would be significantly higher, the operating/maintenance costs would be higher, and there are many unknowns that add risk including wear/tear on the batteries, the pack connectors (both electrical and fluid), fasteners, etc. I think it only makes sense with the leased battery pack model where there is a constant stream of revenue to offset those costs. And better Place has not been successful with that model so far.
Elon/Telsa have said a number of things over the years that they ended up bailing on. For example, the Model S (WhiteStar) was originally going to have a range extender option, they've clearly abandoned that. Elon has discussed battery swap for a very long time, and clearly not abandoned the idea. With regards to this being mentioned in the 10-Q, it has been there for a while. From the company's first 10-Q, filed August, 2010:
The formatting/wording has changed from time to time, but the language did not materially change until last quarter's 10-K:
Tesla is clearly still hinting (or misdirecting?) at this strategy. I personally believe they have some unannounced tech built into the packs already, which is why it is "under our nose". It probably required further software development, testing, etc. before they could enable it. What it is, who knows? Elon researched ultra capacitors, JB Straubel has done work with flywheels. They both have done creative research in energy storage systems. Maybe they've invented something new... Maybe, just maybe, this is the same tech that powers the hyperloop...
Elon/Telsa have said a number of things over the years that they ended up bailing on. For example, the Model S (WhiteStar) was originally going to have a range extender option, they've clearly abandoned that. Elon has discussed battery swap for a very long time, and clearly not abandoned the idea. With regards to this being mentioned in the 10-Q, it has been there for a while. From the company's first 10-Q, filed August, 2010:
The formatting/wording has changed from time to time, but the language did not materially change until last quarter's 10-K:
Tesla is clearly still hinting (or misdirecting?) at this strategy. I personally believe they have some unannounced tech built into the packs already, which is why it is "under our nose". It probably required further software development, testing, etc. before they could enable it. What it is, who knows? Elon researched ultra capacitors, JB Straubel has done work with flywheels. They both have done creative research in energy storage systems. Maybe they've invented something new... Maybe, just maybe, this is the same tech that powers the hyperloop...
mitch672
Active Member
I think their symbol is: BETPLAP but I can't manage to even get any kind of quote/recent price.
Where I work our mantra is to make constantly strive to make the complex simpler. To me adding battery swapping does the opposite adding lots of complexity to Tesla's service model. Now you have to add a service component to maintain and service the robots when they break. And they will break. That adds cost and additional staff. Why?
One reason why Tesla has been so successful is the simplicity of the buying experience and of course everything about the car. Adding all the overhead to coordinate battery pack replacements across the country and around the globe just seems to contradict their current business approach. Give me a battery with close to 400 mile range and with one supercharging session I can easily drive 500 miles in day. Bottom line is why complicate the existing business model?
Like most other announcements by Elon this is over-hyped.
One reason why Tesla has been so successful is the simplicity of the buying experience and of course everything about the car. Adding all the overhead to coordinate battery pack replacements across the country and around the globe just seems to contradict their current business approach. Give me a battery with close to 400 mile range and with one supercharging session I can easily drive 500 miles in day. Bottom line is why complicate the existing business model?
Like most other announcements by Elon this is over-hyped.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I'm not a big believer in the whole battery swap idea. Compared to superchargers, the capital costs would be significantly higher, the operating/maintenance costs would be higher, and there are many unknowns that add risk including wear/tear on the batteries, the pack connectors (both electrical and fluid), fasteners, etc. I think it only makes sense with the leased battery pack model where there is a constant stream of revenue to offset those costs. And better Place has not been successful with that model so far.
Elon/Telsa have said a number of things over the years that they ended up bailing on. For example, the Model S (WhiteStar) was originally going to have a range extender option, they've clearly abandoned that. Elon has discussed battery swap for a very long time, and clearly not abandoned the idea. With regards to this being mentioned in the 10-Q, it has been there for a while. From the company's first 10-Q, filed August, 2010:
The formatting/wording has changed from time to time, but the language did not materially change until last quarter's 10-K:
Tesla is clearly still hinting (or misdirecting?) at this strategy. I personally believe they have some unannounced tech built into the packs already, which is why it is "under our nose". It probably required further software development, testing, etc. before they could enable it. What it is, who knows? Elon researched ultra capacitors, JB Straubel has done work with flywheels. They both have done creative research in energy storage systems. Maybe they've invented something new... Maybe, just maybe, this is the same tech that powers the hyperloop...
I've been watching their SEC filings now for the past year. The change is that previous comments were always a qualified statement that Tesla "might" pursue battery swap at some point.
Yesterday's filing was clear that they WILL announce battery swap in the near future. It's a done deal.
"Why complicate the existing business model?" If for no other reason, to give the wider public One More Reason to Buy. One more reason to at least think about going electric.
But you make valid points, and raise valid concerns. I agree, simple is the way to go. So perhaps Tesla tasked a bunch of engineers to figure out a solution that uses as few moving parts, as few complications, as few potentials for breakdowns, and see if the impossible could be achieved? Or, to come up with a solution that may not be perfect, but is so compelling while staying within economic boundaries that it's time to green-light the project and get it out into the world, damn the torpedoes? We'll find out soon enough.
The car's control systems are all 12V, and there is a 12V battery on-board. The you should be able to disconnect the main battery without the control systems losing power for many hours.
Bricking doesn't happen because the computers power down, it happens because lithium ion cells break down when the charge goes below a certain level and won't take a new charge.
This all just keeps making more sense, and I think it is complementary to SCs. The Swappers could be at the 100 or so locations they feel are needed to cover NA with 120-150 mile spacing. Keep Superchargers there as free offering and back up.
If they really want to go big, they could spend another $30 million to double the amount of SC locations (or perhaps spend more for an even higher multiple). If SCs were 70 miles or even 50 miles apart, it would balance demand on the system, allow more flexibility in choosing your route, and make it extremely unlikely to be caught in a range pickle without intentionally doing so.
We may get more clues about the plan this Friday (I believe that's the planned day to announce re Supercharger).
fwiw on a point of earlier discussion... with swapping, I think the batteries within the system would run up a life's worth of miles (say 125K) in about 3 years, much quicker than I thought before).
If they really want to go big, they could spend another $30 million to double the amount of SC locations (or perhaps spend more for an even higher multiple). If SCs were 70 miles or even 50 miles apart, it would balance demand on the system, allow more flexibility in choosing your route, and make it extremely unlikely to be caught in a range pickle without intentionally doing so.
We may get more clues about the plan this Friday (I believe that's the planned day to announce re Supercharger).
fwiw on a point of earlier discussion... with swapping, I think the batteries within the system would run up a life's worth of miles (say 125K) in about 3 years, much quicker than I thought before).
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
The 3 most things Tesla can do to promote sales are 1) better batteries, 2) more supercharging stations and 3) Gen3. Focus on those and everything else follows. And of course continue to improve the Model S and start delivering the Model X late next years are a given.
PureAmps
Model S P85 (#2817)
Yes, I've been reading them for a while as well. But, that was a good catch, I did miss the *will* part in your quote from the latest filing (which I haven't read yet).
I still remain skeptical of the whole battery swapping concept. They must be partnering with somebody who has a lot of locations (and car lifts) to do this. I just don't see them rapidly rolling out a bunch of automated battery swap centers nationwide any time soon.
I think your tempered approach is on point. As someone wrote on another thread, they may be announcing that they are rolling out a test program in CA. As other poster noted, it's where half the cars are, and it's close to all the engineers at the beehive to make sure the whole thing doesn't run amok.
edit: plus with a test program, they'll probably get a lot of feedback that tells them if it's something the public wants from discussions like this (not to mention the feedback from CA test case).
As a reminder, there's this 2011 mention of Elon discussing battery swaps and the Model S:
New details emerge on battery swap plans for Tesla Model S
New details emerge on battery swap plans for Tesla Model S
Might I remind you all about last June's annual shareholder meeting Q&A session:
Musk: "the Model S was intentionally architected to support fast battery swapping, in under one minute". He also said "I think we will show you something interesting in that regard."
Gee, we have a demonstration upcoming in a week or two, right? I wonder what that could all be about ..... putting 2 + 2 together here...I will be absolutely SHOCKED if it is not battery swapping.
Musk: "the Model S was intentionally architected to support fast battery swapping, in under one minute". He also said "I think we will show you something interesting in that regard."
Gee, we have a demonstration upcoming in a week or two, right? I wonder what that could all be about ..... putting 2 + 2 together here...I will be absolutely SHOCKED if it is not battery swapping.
bollar
Disgruntled Member
The combination makes sense to me, as least as an interim technology while we wait for longer range batteries. There are some long legs in the center of the country where stopping for a 30+ minute charge just isn't ideal, especially if you're trying to cover very long ground and will be making these stops every 150 miles.
In the Texas forum, there has been a lot of discussion about possible locations for Superchargers -- Like between Dallas & Houston, a commute I know well. Though I'm willing to stop for 30 minutes for a top off, it's not ideal -- there's no destination worth stopping at [and the Buckees in Madisonville doesn't count] for that period of time.
Or, for long road trips, like along the I 40 corridor in NM, AZ & TX, maybe you'd want to have Superchargers near Amarillo, Albuquerque and Flagstaf and battery swap in between those cities (Santa Rosa, Winslow & Kingman). That will force a longer stop every other stop and that seems to very complementary to the concept of a grand touring car.
Having Superchargers in big cities is also a nice benefit to the local Teslas.
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