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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
marvinat0rz
Member
I would argue against tech stocks like Twitter. With the current Venture Capital vs. IPO market (due to Sarbanes-Oxley), software companies have their biggest growth phase long before they IPO. Both Twitter and Facebook are examples of companies which are hyped a lot, but really don't have a massive capacity to grow further. Also, social media companies are overbought, and this is true even at the seed funding / venture capital stage. By the time they reach IPO, there is little additional growth to be taken out. But you still have execution risk and the risk of the great attention these companies receive from unsophisticated investors.
There are definitely possibilities to play the volatility, though. I didn't quite dare to actually buy Facebook before the lock-up expiry when the stock had fallen a lot from the IPO and everyone were scared of a massive dumping of shares, but this bet would have a good options play. I'm sure closer attention would uncover additional opportunities.
There are definitely possibilities to play the volatility, though. I didn't quite dare to actually buy Facebook before the lock-up expiry when the stock had fallen a lot from the IPO and everyone were scared of a massive dumping of shares, but this bet would have a good options play. I'm sure closer attention would uncover additional opportunities.
borat99
Member
Totally understand. If there is too much hype, I'll probably end up scooping it after a month like what happened to FB.
Form 5130 — Certificate for the Purchase of Initial Public Offerings of Equity Securities. Also, to be eligible, you have to have at least an account value of $250k or be an active trader with 30 trades in the past 90 days. Pretty simple.
TD get all the IPOs that have GS as the underwriter. Use IPOScoop.com and then go to IPO calendar.
Thanks, I called my broker (OptionsXpress) and they won't offer any Twitter IPO shares.
Besides TD Ameritrade, does anybody know how else to get in the Twitter IPO?
Norse
Active Member
stealthology
Member
borat99
Member
Dave, in theory, any brokerage that gets GS underwritten IPOs should be able to offer IPO shares to its customers. Why not open an account with TD? You get great tools and 500 free trades. Options trading pricing isn't attractive though.
The early IPO numbers are indicating a valuation of around $15 billion. I think I will stick to TSLA with that kind of valuation.
Although, I do believe that Twitter is more valuable than Facebook, even though I have never use Twitter.
borat99
Member
Between FB and Twitter, it's all going to come down to which social platform get more ad impressions and, ultimately, which one does more conversions. I personally, think FB has an edge because Instragram is another revenue avenue they have yet to utilize. Twitter also has Vine but I think Instagram has more user base overseas. It recently just exploded in Asia.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I am considering LinkedIN. I noticed that companies started offering LInked in profile instead of resumes now. This means that in the future, probably everyone working will have a LinkedIn profile. I used to segregate all my social media personalities and have a hard wall between my nicks and my real life name. However, I will be forced to use my real name and merge all my social contacts into one profile on LinkedIn. Something that Google+ has been trying to do and failing.
So this is kind of the opposite thought process... seeing a dying industry before everyone else does. What do people think of puts for Best Buy? They have gone on a huge run this past year from their low of $11.20 to now sitting at $38 near their high. I just read some news that insiders are dumping shares. Also, the holidays are coming up, Which I feel will be a big reminder that big box electronic retail stores are dead compared to online retail like Amazon.
I've done just about zero research into Best Buy so I have no idea if they have turned the corner since they were financially in trouble last year. The CEO dumping shares makes me think not. But that is part of the realization, 10 years ago I would go to Best Buy for all my tech gear, now my de facto tech retailer is Amazon or Newegg. It's just like watching Blackberry, no one was buying their new phones, it was an easy choice to short. Best Buy seems to be one of the next victims in line to fizzle out. Thoughts?
I've done just about zero research into Best Buy so I have no idea if they have turned the corner since they were financially in trouble last year. The CEO dumping shares makes me think not. But that is part of the realization, 10 years ago I would go to Best Buy for all my tech gear, now my de facto tech retailer is Amazon or Newegg. It's just like watching Blackberry, no one was buying their new phones, it was an easy choice to short. Best Buy seems to be one of the next victims in line to fizzle out. Thoughts?
I share your pessimism about Best Buy. But I also haven't done any research on it either. It would be interesting to read through their last 4 quarterly reports and conference calls to see what we could pick up.
Chickenlittle
Banned
When circuit city went under everybody was hot on bby but I realized people were eye shopping with them and buying over internet. I bought puts and company did poorly but yet stock went up because they were last man standing. So I lost with that bet. 2 years later everyone else came to same realization. Now they are matching amazon price so it's not clear to me whether they will do ok or not. Can they survive on amzn margins? You can be right but market can be wrong and timing crucial
I agree. Timing is most difficult, especially when playing with options.
On another note, seems like BBY gapped up on 8/20 on surprise Q2 ER beat, Best Buy Pulls A Shocker As Earnings Shatter Views - Yahoo Finance.
borat99
Member
Someone here recommended NAVB a while ago. I have a small position in it and it's down almost 7% since I got it. Is this thing moving up anytime in the next 6 months? There was slightly positive news here and there in the past month but it didn't seem to move the stock up at all.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I mentioned NAVB because i believe it will be one of the biggest hits of the next year. In short: it has a radioactive tracer that can track macrophages based on CD206 and figure out which lymphnode cancer has metastasized to. It competes with a blue dye and has been shown to be better at detecting these sentinel lymph nodes for doctors to excise.
NAVB has had significant % of the float short for a while. The # of shares short decreased from an alltime high of 24Million to 19M, and the price rose from 2.26 to 3.26. The short sellers have had a field day of shorting heavily at each release of good news. For instance, short analytics says that normally about 40% (30-50%) of shares are sold short in any one given day. On the last day of good news, 65% were sold short that day and the price fell by several %. It is my take that each time good news comes out, a large number of shares are shorted to make retail investors pessimistic and exit the stock.
Here is the catalyst from sept 19: $30 million in shares were bought at current market price directly from the company by Crede. Crede also received warrants with a strike of 3.84.
+ company has more cash
+ large faith by Crede. Purportedly, there is a clause in the agreement that says that Crede cannot short until the day before the warrants expire.
+ Crede bought at market price.
- Dilution of approximately 8%.
Frankly, I don't find the dilution to be problematic. If NAVB is able to sell their product Lymphoseek and fund their future trials, they will have enough cash to be valued significantly higher than they are now. My take is that there is a large short attack and it's not investors parting with their shares. I bought 1500 shares at 2.81, with over 10k in shares (and about 10% of my portfolio in it). Right now I'm sitting on a loss. We have a few future catalysts in the future.
1) October 4th Lymphoseek gets passthrough status at hospitals, allowing it to be billed directly to medicare (i think it goes to medicare, I forget).
2) Earnings: this will be the second earnings, first were under expectations because apparently their distributor (they split revenues 50/50 with Cardinal health who distributes) has been giving away Lymphoseek for free in an attempt to get more clinicians to adopt it, with the idea that it would increase the adoption prior to passthrough.
3) European Partner choice. They have delayed longer than I expected on choosing an European partner. This could be a bad thing. I believe they are going with Mallinckrodt plc.
4) Expanded label for lymphoseek looks quite promising, beyond breast cancer. Recently phase ii trials (i think) demonstrated efficacy in head and neck cancer, and there's every reason to expect that it will be expanded beyond these.
borat99
Member
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
More word on NAVB today. marky p, the ceo, apparently gave a stellar presentation though, being on the west coast, i woke up too late to watch it live and am now waiting for it to archive. The stock is up 5% so far, reversing the slide, and here are the highlights of the presentation, courtesy of DDbuyer;
Get ready for RIGS. The draft clinical protocol is ready to present to FDA, and they have ID’d partners for the clinical trial
Lymphoseek – Engine for new products, leveraging into new indications
Seeing very nice adoption curves, with repeat orders, etc. First quarter efforts were focused on “seeding the market”.
2100 of the 5000 hospitals in the US do lymphatic mapping procedures. Cardinal is initially focusing on the top 600.
Manocept – Hmmmm. Better to be lucky than good? They may have stumbled onto something big here. The macrophage targeting properties allows Tilmanocept to bind to and identify inflammation, and any disease which stimulates macrophage response.
Tilmanocept could have potential to diagnose other types of cancers, as well as many diseases including auto-immune diseases, which are the most difficult to diagnose. I believe we will soon see the Manocept line listed as a separate product in the pipeline chart
Cash on hand = $54.4 million
Get ready for RIGS. The draft clinical protocol is ready to present to FDA, and they have ID’d partners for the clinical trial
Lymphoseek – Engine for new products, leveraging into new indications
Seeing very nice adoption curves, with repeat orders, etc. First quarter efforts were focused on “seeding the market”.
2100 of the 5000 hospitals in the US do lymphatic mapping procedures. Cardinal is initially focusing on the top 600.
Manocept – Hmmmm. Better to be lucky than good? They may have stumbled onto something big here. The macrophage targeting properties allows Tilmanocept to bind to and identify inflammation, and any disease which stimulates macrophage response.
Tilmanocept could have potential to diagnose other types of cancers, as well as many diseases including auto-immune diseases, which are the most difficult to diagnose. I believe we will soon see the Manocept line listed as a separate product in the pipeline chart
Cash on hand = $54.4 million
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