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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
Had played a straddle, with a call for 74$ and put for 59$- all I believed was there is going to be volatility...
stealthology
Member
I think it's downhill from here for Twitter, but I'm biased because I owned puts.
My points:
- Their "timeline" views decreased this quarter, after increasing every previous quarter. Timeline just means the Twitter homepage.
- Their projections for revenue for each of the 4 quarters of 2014 are nearly the same..
- I never really cared for Twitter ever since they came out.
Something else that is hilarious: someone correct me if I'm wrong, but apparently Twitter counts a monthly active user as someone who is following 30 people. Doesn't matter if they ever interact with the site after that, as long as they have 30 followers, they get counted every quarter as a monthly active. That doesn't seem right.
My points:
- Their "timeline" views decreased this quarter, after increasing every previous quarter. Timeline just means the Twitter homepage.
- Their projections for revenue for each of the 4 quarters of 2014 are nearly the same..
- I never really cared for Twitter ever since they came out.
Something else that is hilarious: someone correct me if I'm wrong, but apparently Twitter counts a monthly active user as someone who is following 30 people. Doesn't matter if they ever interact with the site after that, as long as they have 30 followers, they get counted every quarter as a monthly active. That doesn't seem right.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Crap, didn't look TWTR is reporting or I'd have bought a massive amount of puts. Well I can try to get some tomorrow...
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I'm thinking of going long twtr. Not too sure of it, but there's got to be a huge, huge short float right now. Everyone and their mother must think this will fail (and it prob will, just not in their timeframe)
I don't think they will fail... I think they will be quite successful in the future actually. But their valuation right now is pretty crazy and I don't see growth picking up anywhere near enough in the short term to support that number. At $35 billion they were valued almost twice what Tesla was at when it was around $140/share. And people like to say TSLA is overvalued...
I will pick up shares/LEAPs of TWTR if it falls into the mid-low $30s, but at $65 and even $55 it's way too rich for me.
I will pick up shares/LEAPs of TWTR if it falls into the mid-low $30s, but at $65 and even $55 it's way too rich for me.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Sorry, I should modify that. I do not think twitter will fail. I think it's a great company and better than facebook. However, I don't think that they will ever be able to drive the revenue expansion that wallstreet seeks from advertisement, and that is why i used the word "fail". In my opinion, they will not be able to justify a market cap that is close to what they have now.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I looked at cbis a few weeks ago when it was mentioned here. Just looked again today. I guess I should have taken it a little more seriously. But hey, it's all good. 
Chrisr400cc
Member
Yelp seemed to have a good earnings. It was up 7-8% in after hours and they got Jeremy Stoppelman who was with Elon at Paypal. It could be a long term play. Not sure what it could be worth but I would think it would be worth a lot more then 5 billion.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I'll say honestly that I don't see the value of FB, TWTR, LNKD etc. Yes, FB has monetized well enough so they have SOME value, but I can't imagine how TWTR will monetize their business well enough to give a valuation even in billions at all. I just don't see it happening especially in the long run of 10+ years. The whole social media thing to me from valuation point of view is history repeating itself like the .com boom and crash. They'll go up at crazy valuations like FB and TWTR are right now and then at some point it'll burst and they will take all the MoMo stocks with them. TSLA has a clear path to the valuation, the question by most shorts is that they don't believe they will achieve the sales numbers that the valuation accounts for, but for FB and TWTR I cannot imagine how they could ever reach the revenue streams that would give them this valuation as natural...
Some bank was doing this with FB before they went public...I think anyway, can't find the details but I recall someone along those lines.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Tesla needs to show net profit and a solid foundation before this happens, otherwise it'll become collateral damage. I am timing this event for 2016. So for tesla to be absolutely rock solid, it needs to sell Model E by the end of 2015 and show the public that Model E in 2016 has traction. The timing will be tight as there will be some cringe worthy times in 2016 where the market tries to figure out if tesla is a dot com stock or if it is the next Ford.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Hmm, I hope you don't really expect Model E in 2015 because that is more likely to happen in 2017/2018. But yes, starting to churn up GAAP profit on a regular basis that is expanding would help the valuation case a lot and would reduce the forward looking P/E. But there is concrete basis how they can get to it. It's not black magic. I can't imagine what TWTR has to do to explain a 35B$ market cap. And we're not just talking that it's growing etc. I can't see it ever happening to reach that valuation before it's superseded by the next best thing.
I got one helluva shock this morning when I saw what's happened to my Green Mt. shares.
Could do with quite a few more shocks like that! Up over 30% today, as of right now......
And they almost went out in the wash in my portfolio clean-up :crying:
Could do with quite a few more shocks like that! Up over 30% today, as of right now......
And they almost went out in the wash in my portfolio clean-up :crying:
borat99
Member
I got one helluva shock this morning when I saw what's happened to my Green Mt. shares.
Could do with quite a few more shocks like that! Up over 30% today, as of right now......
And they almost went out in the wash in my portfolio clean-up :crying:
I have a small port with just weed stocks HEMP, CBIS, ENDO, MJNA. +/-20% daily swings are very common.
By the way, I picked up some GTAT before market close after seeing this rumor Apple Said To Have Acquired Sapphire Display Manufacturing Components, Diamond Cutting Tools | TechCrunch. Again it's a rumor but I hope the stock gets a big boost.
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Been lurking around the forums, my personal favourite is RKN (traded on the TSX). They are a billing solutions provider for numerous telcos worldwide and do so via the cloud. Regrettably I added to my holdings at $6, and won't be adding more for the moment. Waiting for the next earnings call to decide what to do as there was already a crazy run-up in price this year.
Nice rumor, Borat - backed up with lots of hard, albeit unverified, numbers. And a strong after market of +5.3%. GTAT's been a very nice performer for me.
What other cool tech stock to consider?
The Model E will not be out in 2015. Don't expect it to be, don't say it will be, don't say it might be, don't think that tesla's success rides on it. Nobody has ever said or suggested it would be out in 2015. If you think they need it in 2015 then you might as well sell your shares because it won't happen.
There is a clear path to ~doubling yearly production from here til model E in 2017/18. This is probably what will happen.
The Model E will not be out in 2015. Don't expect it to be, don't say it will be, don't say it might be, don't think that tesla's success rides on it. Nobody has ever said or suggested it would be out in 2015. If you think they need it in 2015 then you might as well sell your shares because it won't happen.
There is a clear path to ~doubling yearly production from here til model E in 2017/18. This is probably what will happen.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
If the model E came out in 2015, no one would buy the model s or the model x. They would have shot themselves in the foot. There's a good case study of that- I forget the name- of a computer company that advertised a better product in 1 year and couldn't sell their current product so went bankrupt. Anyone remember what that was?
That's the Osborne effect, named after the ill-fated pre-announcement of its new generation of computer. Once the announcement was made, no one wanted to buy their current product, and so the company ran out of money before they could get the new generation out the door.
I'm not sure that the analogy is entirely apt to Tesla. There certainly are some, possibly even a majority, of Model S buyers who would have opted for the Model E, Tesla is not saying that the Model E is better than, or a replacement for, the Model S. They are in two overlapping, adjacent market segments. Osborne failed because the new product was a superior replacement for its existing product.
I do think that Tesla is declining to announce the AWD Model S, though, precisely because of the Osborne effect.
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