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Looks like Tesla is doing their FSD demo for the April 22 event.
I think regulation will be left up to the states for a while. What’s wrong with the current state regulations?The federal regulation and the Insurance industry will have to be reshaped. Tesla can start with designating proven roads at first.
Please quote the exact language from any of this list that is actually responsive to my question asking for research behind your statement
If so, will be interesting to see what Tesla's numbers and are at Testing of Autonomous Vehicles for 2019. Unfortunately, we'll probably have to wait until ~Feb 2020 to see them.Looks like Tesla is doing their FSD demo for the April 22 event.
true..... but we did get "emissions testing mode"......Most of the eight points you listed is so far only based on Elon Musk’s announcements.
It's the last 5-10% of situations that are going to be ridiculously hard to code for. Those odd intersections where you can kinda see the traffic light of another street and think it's yours and almost run through an intersection. Those times where construction really screws with the lanes. When a street just isn't well-marked. When the power is out. When a police officer is directing traffic even though the traffic lights above him are working.... There are *so* many fringe cases that come up quite often.
It's the last 5-10% of situations that are going to be ridiculously hard to code for. Those odd intersections where you can kinda see the traffic light of another street and think it's yours and almost run through an intersection. Those times where construction really screws with the lanes. When a street just isn't well-marked. When the power is out. When a police officer is directing traffic even though the traffic lights above him are working.... There are *so* many fringe cases that come up quite often.
The roads in my neighborhood do not have lines. At what point will a Tesla be able to navigate one of those? A human can see it is a 2 way road and that they need to stay to the right and out of the middle - but when will the car be able to make that same set of decisions?
r of0% if you're referring to complete autonomy in all situations.
I work in the broader AI field, admittedly in the NLP/NLU/NLC space rather than image processing, but autonomy (which is what we're really talking about) is an extraordinarily difficult problem to solve, where the inputs are not finite. There are literally an infinite number of "ifs" with a finite number of "thens" to consider, and so this is both a computational problem as well as a learning problem and a recall (storage/latency) problem.
I certainly think that something close to self-driving will be available for "sunny day" scenarios, like driving around relatively calm and quiet grid-based cities with good weather and predictable traffic. But negotiating poorly signed road-works on smashed up highways around New York or Detroit, or dealing with heavy rain, snow, fog, erratic drivers, cyclists, traffic cops telling drivers to do the opposite of what the signs say, dealing with emergency vehicles, navigating parking lots, doing all of that in the dark, doing any of that when there's no wireless signal and not enough information in the onboard database, etc, all mean that "full" autonomy is probably 3 or 4 generations away (10 - 15 years IMO).
In technology people talking about 80/20 where 20% of the effort gets you 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% effort gets you the final 20% result. In the development of autonomous driving, those "edge cases" which might only be 1 - 2% of driving situations, will consume more than 95% of the effort.
I would so love to be wrong BTW.
What the chances Tesla cars will be self driving in 3 years? Why do you think that way?
That's the real reason we don't already have self driving cars already imo. The technology itself is important, but the ramifications are so broad that if they can't just start selling a 100% self driving car overnight, it would be massively disruptive to numerous industries, and on top of that the laws and regulations need major changes/thought.The federal regulation and the Insurance industry will have to be reshaped. Tesla can start with designating proven roads at first.