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What will happen within the next 6 1/2 weeks?

Which new FSD features will be released by end of year and to whom?

  • None - on Jan 1 'later this year' will simply become end of 2020!

    Votes: 106 55.5%
  • One or more major features (stop lights and/or turns) to small number of EAP HW 3.0 vehicles.

    Votes: 55 28.8%
  • One or more major features (stop lights and/or turns) to small number of EAP HW 2.x/3.0 vehicles.

    Votes: 7 3.7%
  • One or more major features (stop lights and/or turns) to all HW 3.0 FSD owners!

    Votes: 8 4.2%
  • One or more major features (stop lights and/or turns) to all FSD owners!

    Votes: 15 7.9%

  • Total voters
    191
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It's not a matter what your or I want to think. The SAE defines L3, L4 and L5 as what is colloquially referred to as "full self-driving" because they can perform the entire DDT when they are on. So L3, L4 and L5 are all "full self-driving".

Lovely. And what Tesla is considering releasing is Level 2+. Not Level 3. Tesla can not perform the entire DDT. We see zero evidence that it can perform the entire DDT. And we see evidence that it's ODD is basically clear roads, no precipitation, no glare from the sun. So you can't use it during certain times of the day, you can't use it when it's raining moderately, you can't use it when there's snow on the ground or the lane lines aren't cleared entirely (half of the winter where I am).

While the recognition of arrows on paved surfaces gives me slight hope that summon will follow lane rules in parking lots, we also see a lot of evidence that they're still heavily relying on map data. And as long as that's the case, it's just not a feasible solution. So I consider that a hint of a half step forward.
 
Lovely. And what Tesla is considering releasing is Level 2+. Not Level 3. Tesla can not perform the entire DDT. We see zero evidence that it can perform the entire DDT. And we see evidence that it's ODD is basically clear roads, no precipitation, no glare from the sun. So you can't use it during certain times of the day, you can't use it when it's raining moderately, you can't use it when there's snow on the ground or the lane lines aren't cleared entirely (half of the winter where I am).

No, the current AP cannot perform the entire DDT. That's why it is still a driver assist (L2)! But eventually, it will do the entire DDT and at that point it will become "full self-driving" (L3+).
 
It's not a matter what your or I want to think. The SAE defines L3, L4 and L5 as what is colloquially referred to as "full self-driving" because they can perform the entire DDT when they are on. So L3, L4 and L5 are all "full self-driving".
For reference: SAE J3016 automated-driving graphic

"Full self-driving" is not a colloquial reference. To my knowledge (which is limited), it is a Muskism TM. You can tell these are weasel words because self-driving does not need the modifier "full." Either it's self-driving, or it ain't. If the word "full" does any work whatsoever, it has to mean Level 5 autonomy, i.e.: "This feature can drive the vehicle under all conditions." Else, what's the word "full" for?
 
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That graphic does not have the SAE definitions. This summary table from the SAE document is probably more accurate than your graphic as it contains the actual narrative definitions.
upload_2019-12-27_21-18-1.png
 
Off topic, how's it owning a Tesla on the Islands? Maui doesn't have a supercharger, right? Did you have to get the car shipped from Oahu, or did it come from the mainland? Do you live in the more jungle areas or the more arid areas of the island, and do you notice the HVAC smell if you live in the rainy areas?

I bought my LR RWD Model 3 while I still lived in Spokane. I actually placed my order exactly two weeks before the thought occurred to me that moving to Maui might be a good idea. I shipped the car here with Matson, who brought it over via Oahu. Maui does not have a supercharger because even the shortest range Tesla could drive from Makena to Hana via Kahului and back twice on a charge. (There's no highway that would let you complete the circle.) I charge at home from my solar panels and if we had a week of very heavy overcast I would not be inconvenienced if I were unable to charge for a week. I live in Kihei, walking distance from four canoe clubs, two of which I belong to and I might join a third. Kihei gets almost no rain. It gets very hot but my solar powers my A/C for free.

It's not a matter what your or I want to think. The SAE defines L3, L4 and L5 as what is colloquially referred to as "full self-driving" because they can perform the entire DDT when they are on. So L3, L4 and L5 are all "full self-driving".

To me, colloquially, "full self driving" means the car does not need a driver to go anywhere and any time a run-of-the-mill human driver could. When I bought my Model 3, this is what Musk was promising. Since the SAE level definitions allow the manufacturer to define the ODD, a car that I would not call FSD could earn the SAE Level 5 rating. My car is self-driving some of the time, but I am responsible for deciding when conditions are beyond its ability.

Lovely. And what Tesla is considering releasing is Level 2+. Not Level 3. Tesla can not perform the entire DDT. We see zero evidence that it can perform the entire DDT. And we see evidence that it's ODD is basically clear roads, no precipitation, no glare from the sun. So you can't use it during certain times of the day, you can't use it when it's raining moderately, you can't use it when there's snow on the ground or the lane lines aren't cleared entirely (half of the winter where I am).

FWIW, on the highways here, EAP works in fairly heavy rain and under all lighting conditions, from dark, to sun-up and sun-down, to daylight. I've never driving it in snow. I don't trust it on very narrow roads where there may be pedestrians or bicyclists close to my lane, or on very curvy roads where it strays farther from the lane center than I like. It does not compensate when a car coming the other way is on or too close to the line.

No, the current AP cannot perform the entire DDT. That's why it is still a driver assist (L2)! But eventually, it will do the entire DDT and at that point it will become "full self-driving" (L3+).

I share your belief that eventually we will have cars that I would call FSD. But I note that when speaking of what will be, we are expressing beliefs, not facts.
 
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To me, colloquially, "full self driving" means the car does not need a driver to go anywhere and any time a run-of-the-mill human driver could.

And that would be L5 autonomy.

Since the SAE level definitions allow the manufacturer to define the ODD, a car that I would not call FSD could earn the SAE Level 5 rating.

How? L5 Autonomy is automatically FSD. And manufacturers cannot just define whatever ODD they want and say that it is L5. By definition, if the automaker limits the ODD in any way, then the car has to be downgraded to L4.
 
No, the current AP cannot perform the entire DDT. That's why it is still a driver assist (L2)! But eventually, it will do the entire DDT and at that point it will become "full self-driving" (L3+).

When has Tesla spoken of FSD being anything other than Level 5 though? And as FSD is a Tesla-only term, I would say it must be considered Level 5. Level 3+ is just inventing stuff in this context.
How? L5 Autonomy is automatically FSD. And manufacturers cannot just define whatever ODD they want and say that it is L5. By definition, if the automaker limits the ODD in any way, then the car has to be downgraded to L4.

This is not entirely accurate. SAE allows manufacturers to limit the ODD to a market and human driveable conditions for Level 5.

Tesla on the other hand is on record as saying they will be Level 5 no geofence feature complete at end of 2019 (expectation), which would be beyond Level 5 as Level 5 actually allows a geofence.

Of course Tesla is quite likely lying to us there, but that is what they say.
 
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I love it when people try to explain my industry to me. :rolleyes:

This is the same person who said there's no way any new releases would be coming out during the Holiday freeze? Which for reference, I also work in an industry that has Holiday freezes, but again, this whole absolutes thing... And I also work in the industry where you develop and deploy in the 5/6 model - code can be feature complete in Dev before going through the rest of lower environments; Test, QA, PreProd and Cert, long before ever touching any external parties or end-users.

But this is really all semantics, feature complete is vague enough to have people arguing on the internet without anyone being right. Tesla could literally have a list of hard-coded rules finalized that they are now training NN's around and that would be feature complete, right? You can have an API that's feature complete 6-months before it ever is deployed or utilized - even if you changed 20%+ of that code base before it made it to Production deployment.
 
When has Tesla spoken of FSD being anything other than Level 5 though? And as FSD is a Tesla-only term, I would say it must be considered Level 5. Level 3+ is just inventing stuff in this context.

I am not talking about what Tesla is calling "FSD" on the website. Yes, Tesla is claiming that the "FSD" that they are selling on the website will eventually be L5 when it is approved by regulators.

I am talking about FSD in general according to the SAE levels. According to the SAE, FSD can be L3, L4 or L5.

This is not entirely accurate. SAE allows manufacturers to limit the ODD to a market and human driveable conditions for Level 5.

Sure, a car does not need to be full self-driving anywhere on the entire planet in order to be L5. L5 can be restricted to a broad market like say the entire continental US. But when we talk about restricting the ODD, we generally mean restrictions within the market like say geofencing to just urban areas or just restricting to certain speeds or certain time of day.

And yes, L5 is restricted to human driveable conditions because it would be nonsensical to go beyond that.

Tesla on the other hand is on record as saying they will be Level 5 no geofence feature complete at end of 2019 (expectation), which would be beyond Level 5 as Level 5 actually allows a geofence.

That makes no sense. There is nothing beyond L5 as L5 is the highest level of autonomy.

And L5 does not allow geofencing, not unless you are considering the entire continental US as geofencing. That would be weird though. Geofencing usually means restricting to an area like urban Phoenix. That type of geofencing is not allowed in L5.

So really the term "L5 nogeofence" is an oxymoron because L5 automatically implies no geofencing.

If Tesla gets to where AP can drive itself (with driver supervision) on all human driveable roads, and in all human driveable conditions in the continental US, that would meet the definition of "L5 no geofence feature complete".
 
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I am not talking about what Tesla is calling "FSD" on the website. Yes, Tesla is claiming that the "FSD" that they are selling on the website will eventually be L5 when it is approved by regulators.

I am talking about FSD in general according to the SAE levels. According to the SAE, FSD can be L3, L4 or L5.

FSD is purely Tesla terminology, but even if it wasn’t you calling FSD Level 3+ makes no sense. Only Level 5 is ”Full” according to SAE (Full Automation), Level 4 is High Automation and Level 3 is Conditional Automation.

Only Level 5 is ”full” anything in any of the normally used definitions.
That makes no sense. There is nothing beyond L5 as L5 is the highest level of autonomy.

And L5 does not allow geofencing, not unless you are considering the entire continental US as geofencing. That would be weird though. Geofencing usually means restricting to an area like urban Phoenix. That type of geofencing is not allowed in L5.

So really the term "L5 nogeofence" is an oxymoron because L5 automatically implies no geofencing.

If Tesla gets to where AP can drive itself (with driver supervision) on all human driveable roads, and in all human driveable conditions in the continental US, that would meet the definition of "L5 no geofence feature complete".

Of course it makes sense. A market geofence is allowed for Level 5, but it is still a geofence. It is just a much broader geofence than is allowed for Level 4.

You are simply claiming ”Level 5 no geofence” as an oxymoron, when in reality it is not.

Of course Tesla was probably lying when they claimed ”Level 5 no geofence” feature complete at the end of 2019 (expected).
 
Now, having said the above, I am not unreasonable by any means. If Tesla simply tongue slipped and ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” at the end of 2019 actually meant ”Level 5 with continental U.S. geofence feature complete” I would still consider that close enough and let it slide.

Of course I worry the reality is their expected feature complete at the end of this year was in fact nowhere close to any kind of Level 5.
 
... Of course I worry the reality is their expected feature complete at the end of this year was in fact nowhere close to any kind of Level 5.
Elon has consistently made false statements on this topic and we should expect that to continue. Everyone expecting level 5 FSD is going to be continuously disappointed. Lower your sights to level 3 and then you won't be living in the land of false hopes.

Elon defined feature complete as half the trips not needing driver input. This is a rudimentary form of self driving, in that the driver needs to constantly monitor and be ready to take over in a fraction of a second. There is nothing full about this from the term FSD. Partial self driving (PSD) or rudimentary self driving (RSD) are more accurate terms.
 
FSD is purely Tesla terminology, but even if it wasn’t you calling FSD Level 3+ makes no sense. Only Level 5 is ”Full” according to SAE (Full Automation), Level 4 is High Automation and Level 3 is Conditional Automation.

Only Level 5 is ”full” anything in any of the normally used definitions.

I think we are looking at "full" differently. You are looking at "full" as meaning the highest type of self-driving. So you are saying L3 is "partial self-driving", L4 is "high self-driving" and only L5 is "full self-driving".

I am looking at "full" as referring to the full DDT. So from that perspective, L3, L4 and L5 are all full self-driving since they do the full DDT, just full self-driving under different conditions. So I am saying L3 is "conditional full self-driving with driver fallback", L4 is "conditional full self-driving with no driver fallback" and L5 is "unconditional full self-driving".

Your way of looking at full self-driving is fine though.

Of course it makes sense. A market geofence is allowed for Level 5, but it is still a geofence. It is just a much broader geofence than is allowed for Level 4.

You are simply claiming ”Level 5 no geofence” as an oxymoron, when in reality it is not.

Different continents and national markets often have very different driving rules, different types of roads and different regulatory agencies even. So I don't think it is very useful to count "geofencing" by continent or national market since cars have to be restricted to those broad areas with the same driving rules, types of roads and regulators anyway. Plus, your method seems confusing because both L5 and L4 are considered geofenced.

Now, having said the above, I am not unreasonable by any means. If Tesla simply tongue slipped and ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” at the end of 2019 actually meant ”Level 5 with continental U.S. geofence feature complete” I would still consider that close enough and let it slide.

Yes, I think it means "L5 in continental US geofence feature complete" since Tesla seems focused on getting FSD to work in the US first. Europe has its own regulatory issues with AP as we all know.

But it helps me to see where we differ. No wonder you scoff at "L5 no geofence feature complete". You think it literally means no geofence at all on the entire planet Earth. Yeah, that sounds pretty crazy. Honestly, I don't get too worked up about "L5 no geofence feature complete" because I simply took it to me that Elon wants self-driving in the continental US on highways and city streets.
 
But it helps me to see where we differ. No wonder you scoff at "L5 no geofence feature complete". You think it literally means no geofence at all on the entire planet Earth. Yeah, that sounds pretty crazy. Honestly, I don't get too worked up about "L5 no geofence feature complete" because I simply took it to me that Elon wants self-driving in the continental US on highways and city streets.

Well, not really where we differ mainly, the geofence thing is more of a side point. I think the notion that Tesla is any kind of feature complete for Level 5 (within U.S. or any market for that matter) is pretty far off.

But that is their expectation for end of 2019 and they haven’t retracted it, so I guess the claim still stands. Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019...
 
L5 Autonomy is automatically FSD. And manufacturers cannot just define whatever ODD they want and say that it is L5. By definition, if the automaker limits the ODD in any way, then the car has to be downgraded to L4.

I'm too lazy to go back and search for it, but when somebody posted the latest SAE definitions, L5 allowed for the manufacturer to define the ODD. We had this discussion at the time: This is a huge loophole.

I regard L5 as being "No driver needed, ever." "FSD" means the same thing to me, though apparently not to everyone. To me, a self-driving car is one that drives itself. A full self-driving car is one that is always self-driving. My suggested acronym: NNaD: (Never Needs a Driver.)
 
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I'm too lazy to go back and search for it, but when somebody posted the latest SAE definitions, L5 allowed for the manufacturer to define the ODD. We had this discussion at the time: This is a huge loophole.

That is not correct. If someone posted such a thing, it would be wrong. Well, misleading at least.

Level 5 is allowed to be limited to a market (say, the U.S.) and human driveable conditions but limiting it to some other ODD would demote it to Level 4. So it can have a geofence (to the market) and refuse to work in undriveable conditions (as long as it can reach MRC) but not really a limited ODD.
 
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