When Tesla will catch up with Waymo and Cruise at delivering L4?

[t3sl4drvr]

Today one can hail a robotaxi from Cruise or Waymo - with no-one sitting on the driver's seat. Areas they operate are still very limited and scale is small. But the key is that they both actually operate. With this both companies have been able to ship L4.

Tesla has been selling vision for a full self-driving car for at least five years now, but have been unable to deliver anything but L2. When will you expect to see Tesla delivering L4 that at least would match what Cruise and Waymo are already doing today (driving around in San Francisco with no-one in the car and with a passenger but no driver)?

 

[JulienW]

Tesla is shooting for NON geo mapped. So that is VERY different and not a fair comparison. I predict we get Level 3 in about 1 ½ years and I will be happy. I don't believe our cars will EVER be able to do Level 4 and will require more sensors, possibly a 5G or mesh network and at least HW4 (FSD2). So probably 2026 with new models only.

 

[EVNow]

What a BS poll. You can’t buy a Waymo car nor can you hail one in 99% of US.

 

[EVEnergy]

Today one can hail a robotaxi from Cruise or Waymo - with no-one sitting on the driver's seat.

Except they still don't drive autonomously. Drivers watch the drive progress and have to take over when the cars get stuck.

 

[aronth5]

Didn't vote since it's comparing apples and oranges as others have stated.

 

[t3sl4drvr]

You can’t buy a Waymo car

They are in robotaxi business, not in car-selling business. Business model is not a factor in this poll.

nor can you hail one in 99% of US.

The fact that you can hail Waymo and Cruise somewhere is fundamentally different from not being able to hail Tesla anywhere. Either the product exists (and the company can prove it by delivering it somewhere) or it does not exist.

Except they still don't drive autonomously. Drivers watch the drive progress and have to take over when the cars get stuck.

Do you have up-to-date specifics on this for Cruise and Waymo? If what you say is true, the level might be described as L3 instead of L4. Anyone knows if SAE specifically discuss remote driving?

Even if Cruise and/or Waymo would operate as L3 with remote backup driver operating "stuck" cars, it would be fundamentally different from L2 that Tesla is doing.

 

[clydeiii]

This is like comparing a million dollar concept car where only one or two copies will ever be made and a Toyota Corolla and asking which one is better. For 99.999% of all people, the Corolla is better because they can actually obtain that car.

 

[EVNow]

They are in robotaxi business, not in car-selling business. Business model is not a factor in this poll.

Neither is rationality a factor in this poll. Just a trash poll.

Why not create a poll that says -

When Waymo will catch up with Tesla at delivering something ..... anything in my neighborhood ?​

 

[alexgr]

Neither is rationality a factor in this poll. Just a trash poll.

Why not create a poll that says -

When Waymo will catch up with Tesla at delivering something ..... anything in my neighborhood ?​

Exactly. Tesla will never catch up with Waymo, because Waymo does not exist. IMHO, this poll is just made for our diplomat33 to keep going. Truly, the robotaxi exist for a long time now. They are commonly used as airport transfer trains. Not much difference. If we need precise maps, zillion of sensors, and geofencing, WHY wouldn't we just make more robotic city trains?

 

[eli_]

Tesla doesn't seem to be working on anything resembling a L4 Waymo-like robotaxi business, it's all driver-assist features (i.e. Cruise Control++++), which I'd argue is actually a much better business. Tesla is able to sell features that don't exist for $12k/unit or $200/month while Waymo loses more money for every additional car they put on the road, it starts looks like the scooter rental industry. At least with Uber the drivers bring their own cars and they benefit from network effects.

To have actual L4 driver-less cars or robotaxis, you need more than smart software on the vehicle. You end up spending lots of money on actual infrastructure and manpower, plus the cost of liability for accidents. You need remote operators to get the cars unstuck when they inevitably get confused, and people who are actually in the field and can physically reach the car. I haven't seen even a hint that Tesla is building anything like that. Robotaxis inevitably end up being geofenced regardless of if how good the tech stack is because they can't go where there is no field support. What happens when my car drives from Los Angeles to New York and gets stuck in Nebraska?

 

[Knightshade]

To have actual L4 driver-less cars or robotaxis, you need more than smart software on the vehicle. You end up spending lots of money on actual infrastructure and manpower, plus the cost of liability for accidents. You need remote operators to get the cars unstuck when they inevitably get confused, and people who are actually in the field and can physically reach the car. I haven't seen even a hint that Tesla is building anything like that. Robotaxis inevitably end up being geofenced regardless of if how good the tech stack is because they can't go where there is no field support. What happens when my car drives from Los Angeles to New York and gets stuck in Nebraska?

Yes, if only Tesla had a nationwide fleet of trained techs who know how to repair their cars and were mobile.

if only.

 

[FirstInTown]

Everyone is stating Tesla isn't developing L4/L5. Weren't we JUST told by a certain big person at Tesla, L5, that is what they are working on and he'd be shocked if don't have L5 by the end of 2022? That is what I heard last week in the profit call.

Which is it? $12k for L2 or L5?

 

[ThomasD]

Waymo has been in Detroit for a while now. Yet no videos of it transporting passengers.

 

[Knightshade]

Everyone is stating Tesla isn't developing L4/L5. Weren't we JUST told by a certain big person at Tesla, L5, that is what they are working on and he'd be shocked if don't have L5 by the end of 2022? That is what I heard last week in the profit call.

Which is it? $12k for L2 or L5?

Tesla has sold 2 different products under the FSD banner.

From Oct 2016 to March 2019 they sold a system that promised to deliver (at least) L4.... (you can possibly argue it promised L5, but could go either way)

Since then the system they're selling explicitly tells you it's L2.

Tesla aspirationally would like to deliver that L4 or better system to buyers of BOTH products, and I've never seen anything to suggest if they get L4 working it won't go out to both groups. But from a "what they are promised during the purchase" perspective the only "owe" that to the pre 3/19 buyers.

 

[eli_]

Yes, if only Tesla had a nationwide fleet of trained techs who know how to repair their cars and were mobile.

if only.

No one in Nebraska. It's a start maybe, but IMO "Robotaxi Babysitter" is a totally different role, not something you want your repair technicians doing, it's a waste of their skills and time. And Tesla doesn't have anywhere close to nationwide coverage, it's super sparse outside California and some major metro areas. For robotaxi ops you need someone who is mere minutes away at all times, not hundreds of miles or in the next state over.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Never with HW3

 

[drtimhill]

New poll: "When will Waymo and Cruise catch up with providing L2 driving in any city anywhere?"

 

[Bladerskb]

What a BS poll. You can’t buy a Waymo car nor can you hail one in 99% of US.

What does buying a Waymo have to do with anything? You Tesla fan grasp at so many straws it’s incredible.

 

[Bladerskb]

Exactly. Tesla will never catch up with Waymo, because Waymo does not exist. IMHO, this poll is just made for our diplomat33 to keep going. Truly, the robotaxi exist for a long time now. They are commonly used as airport transfer trains. Not much difference. If we need precise maps, zillion of sensors, and geofencing, WHY wouldn't we just make more robotic city trains?

The Uber/Lyft people take around the city are just airport transfer trains then. Gosh the immaculate logic you Tesla fans display never cease to amuse me.

 

[Bladerskb]

Everyone is stating Tesla isn't developing L4/L5. Weren't we JUST told by a certain big person at Tesla, L5, that is what they are working on and he'd be shocked if don't have L5 by the end of 2022? That is what I heard last week in the profit call.

Which is it? $12k for L2 or L5?

This is what Tesla fans do best. Contradict themselves. If you post a video of FSD Beta or AP doing well they go crazy, upvote it, say look how amazing it is, it’s basically self driving, it’s so awesome, it’s better than my at driving.

Then you post a video of it almost killing you and instantly they downvote you, call u stupid, say don’t u know it’s just a beta, tell you it’s your fault, say you need to be responsible because it’s not self driving, etc etc.

This constant contradiction as you say flows into every.

They claim Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of every one in autonomous driving (L4+) and then when u ask them where can I engage FSD and ride in the back seat like other autonomous driving companies that they are so better than, they tell u it’s apples/orange, say that you can’t buy those other cars so it doesn’t count.

Truly amazing logic there.