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Blog When Will Tesla Hit 200,000 Sales in the U.S.?

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Patrick0101, Jan 17, 2018.

  1. Patrick0101

    Patrick0101 Member

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    Last year was an exciting one for electric vehicles. Among the many milestones, there are two (or three) relevant to this discussion: one, the US Federal Tax Credit survived the political budget process; two, the Tesla Model 3 began shipping to Tesla employees in July and (3) to non-employees in December. Now that Model 3...
    READ FULL ARTICLE
     
  2. azred

    azred Active Member

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    Clever self-promotion of your opinion piece by linking to it. :)

    I’d suggest you back up your assertions with some citations from Tesla. Of course, Tesla hasn’t said how many cars they have delivered in the US, so instead people keep pumping out these guesstimates as fact.
     
  3. Patrick0101

    Patrick0101 Member

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    They release data every quarter. You can find data all the way back to the Roadster sales on their investor site. As a publicly traded company, they have a duty to report.
     
  4. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    Key part being 'in the US.' They do not release that info on the investor site.
     
  5. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    What they have a duty to report is surprisingly limited. They have to report financial bottom line data, and any material changes or threats to their business, but the level of detail in those reports isn't really specified. They definitely don't have to report geographical breakdown of sales, or split by model. In fact I don't think they have to report the actual number of cars, either produced or sold, at all... only their total revenue from sales.
     
  6. R.S

    R.S Member

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    If you estimate they will take until June to deliver 40k cars, the amount of Model 3s seems to be rather low. I'd say X and S sales would be 20-25k, which only leaves 15-20k Model 3s, which really isn't a lot.
     
  7. Patrick0101

    Patrick0101 Member

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    Agreed, if things go well, they could blow this estimate away. I hope they do.
     
  8. RiverCard

    RiverCard Member

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    IRS requires a quarterly report certifying the number of credit qualifying cars delivered. Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service

    Only Ford's, Mercedes' and BMW's reports are made public. IRC 30D Plug In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service

    Others may be asserting confidentiality
     
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  9. Yoda101

    Yoda101 EM and TM Model3 Fan

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    #9 Yoda101, Jan 21, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2018
    This analysis by @Troy differs significantly - Q1 of 2018

    upload_2018-1-22_4-43-42.png

     
  10. Troy916

    Troy916 Member

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    April is in q2 not q1.
     
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  11. Patrick0101

    Patrick0101 Member

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    They are not all that different, both predict most likely crossing the 200k mark in Q2. Troy's prediction has some small chance of hitting it in Q1, whereas this TMC blogpost has some small chance of hitting it in Q3 (if Tesla stockpiles US deliveries to maximize the number of customers that qualify for the incentive).
     
  12. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

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    anyone have a new update?
     

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